Brexit to be triggered tomorrow - what if the severance deal is a bad one for the UK?

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  • VimFuegoVimFuego Frets: 15475
    basically what Snap said. There's too much trade between the various nations to risk losing that. At the moment the politicans are in charge, and cos they don't actually have to produce results or anything they can afford to be all tough talkers. However, people in Germany want to buy from british companies. Companies in France want to sell to British consumers. It's a good thing. If national governments start getting in the way of trade, you can bet your bottom euro that various trade bodies will put so much pressure on governments that they will be forced to sign deals. Businesses are pragmatic and they have to take sensible decisions to protect their bottom lines. Once the politicans get out the way, trade will take over.

    I'm not locked in here with you, you are locked in here with me.

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  • RichardjRichardj Frets: 1538
    Considering that in the U.K. you already pay more than twice as much for a given bottle of wine than on the continent (and that isn't just duty) how much more will you be prepared to pay for goods from Europe.  I suspect that the UK imports more than it exports, especially when looking around U.K. supermarkets compared to continental ones.
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  • Fretwired said:

    Have you ever read the EU Treaties? Free movement of people (as distinct from workers) is a creature of Maastricht (rather than Rome). It's most striking facet is the Schengen Agreement from which the UK enjoys an opt out. The right simply to 'reside' in another member state (qua person not worker) is in any case conditional on possessing the means to sustain oneself. Free movement of workers derives from Rome Treaty and it is what we have had for yonks (including prior to Maastricht).
    Yes, but politicians in France, Netherlands, Denmark and Germany are open to amend it. And you don't have to sustain yourself - you are entitled to the same rights as the population of the country you reside in and that means benefits and access to healthcare (subject to a qualifying period in some countries). The Dutch favour a system whereby if you are not a student or a tourist and you can't, or won't get a job and can't support yourself then you must return to your country of origin after a reasonable period - say 6 months. The EU needs reform.

    In the UK anyone gaining a low paid job in the UK from another EU country qualifies for an expanded range of in work benefits at UK rates paid for by UK taxpayers. It also became established that EU migrants using the EU freedom of movement provision could qualify for unemployment benefits. This has led to wage stagnation as employers know their low wages will be topped up with government handouts and there's a plentiful supply of workers willing to work for slave wages. It was never envisaged that so many low skilled workers would move to places like the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands - even Blair admitted he was wrong.

    Laugh if you like, but I think the UK will retain free movement with a brake on numbers and a block on access to unemployment benefit until someone has contributed, as happens in other EU countries.

    You're right that member states may not treat citizens from other EU countries differently. However, it is incorrect to suggest that sufficiency of resources is not part of the equation. Look at Article 7(1)(b) of the 2004 Directive on free movement (2004/38/EC) and you can read it in black and white. Unless the person is a worker the person must have sufficient resources not to become a burden on the host state welfare system if they're staying longer than 3 months.

    The UK's problem is that it has an excessively generous, universal welfare system where one's right to draw from the public pot is not linked to quantum or continuity of contributions (and which, as you point out, incorporates a range of in work benefits for the lower paid).

    The UK would have been better off reforming its dysfunctional welfare state but it's politically easier to stick it to the EU rather than touch that sacred cow. The problem has always been one of UK practice, not EU law and the UK has always been free to configure its benefits system and fiscal policy as it sees fit (albeit not so as to discriminate against EU citizens). If the power to discriminate is the imperative then absolutely, Brexit is the only way to achieve it.

    As for in work benefits 'paid for by UK taxpayers' I do hope you understand that EU citizens working here are by and large UK taxpayers themselves (notable exceptions being diplomats and non resident non doms).
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  • BidleyBidley Frets: 2912
    Went to the gym this morning. All the treadmills were in use, so I had to use the rower instead.
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  • BoromedicBoromedic Frets: 4700
    Bidley said:
    Went to the gym this morning. All the treadmills were in use, so I had to use the rower instead.
    I went and had to deal with an old boy who collapsed on the treadmill bless him, lovely guy but just overdid it a bit on an empty stomach. Told him he needs to stop following Wiggins training plans, he will be ordering a TUE next.....

    My head said brake, but my heart cried never.


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  • 57Deluxe57Deluxe Frets: 7329
    edited March 2017
    An interesting article on the Long View on BBC4 the other day when they compared when Elizabethan I  was  excommunicated by the Pope and thus Britain not able to trade with the rest of Europe. So, they went East... A comparison was made for our Financial Services inasmuch as most of Africa and India's populous do not have a bank account and more and more services today are electronic, so is a massive need for Banking Services infrastructure to be established - that's right up our street!
    <Vintage BOSS Upgrades>
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 22096
    I have decided to walk around for the next two years with a big smile and a T-shirt that reads "Brexit: like your biggest orgasm but better". 

    Seems reasonable to me. 



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  • 57Deluxe57Deluxe Frets: 7329
    edited March 2017
    "...no, sorry, completely missed that Jezza - say again??"


    <Vintage BOSS Upgrades>
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 22096
    edited March 2017
    57Deluxe said:
    "...no, sorry, completely missed that Jezza - say again??"

    http://i63.tinypic.com/2nsxlc1.jpg

    Jesus, look at those tits. 

    And the pair of breasts behind them. 



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  • GassageGassage Frets: 30825
    It would help if we didn't have a stuttering retarded gerbil leading the negotiations.

    She's an utter fuckwit.

    *An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.

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  • BoromedicBoromedic Frets: 4700
    Gassage said:
    It would help if we didn't have a stuttering retarded gerbil leading the negotiations.

    She's an utter fuckwit.
    Hahaha, that and more besides she is a piece of work thats for sure. 

    My head said brake, but my heart cried never.


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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601


    As for in work benefits 'paid for by UK taxpayers' I do hope you understand that EU citizens working here are by and large UK taxpayers themselves (notable exceptions being diplomats and non resident non doms).
    I just checked and there are 340K EU nationals receiving working tax credits - if they are a low paid worker they could be effectively paying no income tax. They are also entitled to housing benefit. On the other hand these people are working in businesses that pay tax and they will buy things on which they pay VAT and will contribute to the economy by using local shops and services. Fact is we need them.

    My gripe with all of this is that the UK has become a slave wage economy. It's too easy for firms to employ skilled workers on lower pay from eastern Europe than invest in training young people and access to a glut of unskilled workers means you can pay the minimum wage and get lots of applicants. And Working Tax Credits are just a wage subsidy for big business. Wages need to rise beyond the minimum wage. And you are right - our benefits system is dysfunctional.

    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • BoromedicBoromedic Frets: 4700
    Fretwired said:


    As for in work benefits 'paid for by UK taxpayers' I do hope you understand that EU citizens working here are by and large UK taxpayers themselves (notable exceptions being diplomats and non resident non doms).
    I just checked and there are 340K EU nationals receiving working tax credits - if they are a low paid worker they could be effectively paying no income tax. They are also entitled to housing benefit. On the other hand these people are working in businesses that pay tax and they will buy things on which they pay VAT and will contribute to the economy by using local shops and services. Fact is we need them.

    My gripe with all of this is that the UK has become a slave wage economy. It's too easy for firms to employ skilled workers on lower pay from eastern Europe than invest in training young people and access to a glut of unskilled workers means you can pay the minimum wage and get lots of applicants. And Working Tax Credits are just a wage subsidy for big business. Wages need to rise beyond the minimum wage. And you are right - our benefits system is dysfunctional.
    London school of economics found no link between wage stagnation and EU migrants, there are many other causes but not this:

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/05/11/immigration-from-the-eu-is-not-a-necessary-evil-and-does-not-drag-down-wages/

    My head said brake, but my heart cried never.


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  • NiteflyNitefly Frets: 4901
    I'm in Northwich now - it's looking really overcast....
    Pissing down in Atherton. And I have to collectmy grandson from school.
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  • richardhomerrichardhomer Frets: 24793
    Nitefly said:
    I'm in Northwich now - it's looking really overcast....
    Pissing down in Atherton. And I have to collectmy grandson from school.
    It's still not started raining here - but it looks like it's about to hammer down.

    My son's walking home from school - I'll probably be in at around 5.30....
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    Boromedic said:

    London school of economics found no link between wage stagnation and EU migrants, there are many other causes but not this:

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/05/11/immigration-from-the-eu-is-not-a-necessary-evil-and-does-not-drag-down-wages/
    The Bank of England, the TUC and others are not so sure.

    The Bank of England's report on the impact of immigration on occupational wages finds that a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a two per cent reduction in pay in the "semi/unskilled services sector".

    http://www.cityam.com/231356/bank-of-england-mass-migration-can-depress-low-skilled-wages



    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • BoromedicBoromedic Frets: 4700
    edited March 2017
    Look at the sectors that covers though, all the undesirable jobs that no UK born slacker wants to do. The businesses who run the majority of those trades are at fault not the migrants we needed to fill those positions. They work damn hard as well.

    My head said brake, but my heart cried never.


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  • BoromedicBoromedic Frets: 4700
    edited March 2017
    I see NHS staff have been given another mockery of a "wage rise", 1%. They really are a pack of jokers, it would be funny if it wasn't so tory cliche.

    My head said brake, but my heart cried never.


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  • SnapSnap Frets: 6256
    edited March 2017
    Boromedic said:
    How ridiculous and arrogant does that sound?? We aren't the powerful country we once were I'm afraid and our mighty banking and service industry might just slowly erode through the next 10 years of negotiations.  There is nothing to stop them walking away in fact. Leaving us paying for the same deal as before but now we get to sit outside while the big boys talk to each other. There are many ways this could go let's face it but we need to stop pretending about just how big and important we are.
    err, not riduculous at all. We are the 5th biggest economy in the world and the second largest in the EU. We also have the 2nd largest military force in the EU.

    We are the powerful country we always have been, and then some. This idea that the UK is some second rate player is a total myth, we actually are pretty big guns.  We contribute shedloads to the EU in many many ways.

    You don't let that just walk out of your door, if you are the EU. I think the powers that be in the EU are seriously worried about what is going to happen, and just how they will fill the gap. That;s one of the big reasons why I think we will all get a good deal
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    Boromedic said:
    Look at the sectors that covers though, all the undesirable jobs that no UK born slacker wants to do. The businesses who run the majority of those trades are at fault not the migrants we needed to fill those positions. They work damn hard as well.
    Employers should pay them properly - I bet most low paid workers are on minimum wage or zero hours contracts. There is a ready supply of labour which keeps wages depressed.

    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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