Anybody else noticing the prices creeping up?

ToneControl

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

stickyfiddle

ToneControl said:

stickyfiddle said:

...

I've shown the £ against the Euro, but the principle is the same obviously, the £ and Euro cannot vary independently against the dollar. I'm just trying to show the same thing you've mentioned: long term cycles. I don't think there is evidence to indicate that more than a small part of the current drop is caused by Brexit - we were on a decline already

I certainly agree with that. Obviously there is no fixed benchmark to compare everything else to, I'm just not sure EUR is useful as it's at least as volatile as the pound and has little to nothing to do with manufacturing prices. I think we're on the same page though generally! 

Whitecat

ToneControl said:

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12DCE/production/_90126277_sterling_value_624gr-2.png

Gassage

ToneControl said:

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

LOL!!!!!

So wrong- please amend your post.

21st June 2016, £1= $1.5

12th March 2017 £1= $1.19

crunchman

Gassage said:

ToneControl said:

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

LOL!!!!!

So wrong- please amend your post.

21st June 2016, £1= $1.5

12th March 2017 £1= $1.19

Please read the Torygraph article I linked above from the end of 2015 or Jan 2016.  Deutsche Bank were saying the pound was very overvalued and predicting this kind of fall well before the referendum.

You've also cherry picked your figures using 12th March.  A couple of days ago it was $1.249 on the BBC website.

I don't doubt that Brexit has played a part, but most of the movement is currency speculation by the markets.

Gassage

crunchman said:

Gassage said:

ToneControl said:

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

LOL!!!!!

So wrong- please amend your post.

21st June 2016, £1= $1.5

12th March 2017 £1= $1.19

Please read the Torygraph article I linked above from the end of 2015 or Jan 2016.  Deutsche Bank were saying the pound was very overvalued and predicting this kind of fall well before the referendum.

You've also cherry picked your figures using 12th March.  A couple of days ago it was $1.249 on the BBC website.

I don't doubt that Brexit has played a part, but most of the movement is currency speculation by the markets.

How on earth can a currency be overvalued for 50 or so years? Do you honestly believe that?

And, also from DB who have almost bankrupted themselves this year.

thebreeze

ToneControl said:

stickyfiddle said:

While @ToneControl 's EUR/GBP rates are correct, I don't think they're very relevant, both due to the known volatility of the Euro in the last decade, and because most guitar gear comes from Asia or the US (Duesenberg is the only major EU-based manufacturer I can think of, and most of their stuff is made in Korea to some extent). 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=eur&view=10Y

In contrast, the pound has had a fairly consistent decline on the dollar since 2006 when it was 2:1. The drop-off in 2008 was far worse but noone was whining then, perhaps because it wasn't self-inflicted that time around.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=usd&view=10Y

It's arguably gone a little too far now and will come back to 1.40 or so, but that will probably take a few years. Either way, the fact that GBP prices have remained relatively low until now is actually quite impressive.

In 2006 an SG Standard was about GBP 900, now they're 1100, which is a smaller change than the currency movement should have caused overall. Sure, an LP Standard is double what it was then, but with Amazon's regular blowouts surely noone is buying them at RRP?

I've shown the £ against the Euro, but the principle is the same obviously, the £ and Euro cannot vary independently against the dollar. I'm just trying to show the same thing you've mentioned: long term cycles. I don't think there is evidence to indicate that more than a small part of the current drop is caused by Brexit - we were on a decline already

But it's the contrary, you're trying to rely on long-term cycles and trends - which isn't evidence - it's suggestion.  The actual fact is that the pound has dropped and prices have risen since Brexit - there is only evidence for that.

ToneControl

thebreeze said:

ToneControl said:

stickyfiddle said:

While @ToneControl 's EUR/GBP rates are correct, I don't think they're very relevant, both due to the known volatility of the Euro in the last decade, and because most guitar gear comes from Asia or the US (Duesenberg is the only major EU-based manufacturer I can think of, and most of their stuff is made in Korea to some extent). 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=eur&view=10Y

In contrast, the pound has had a fairly consistent decline on the dollar since 2006 when it was 2:1. The drop-off in 2008 was far worse but noone was whining then, perhaps because it wasn't self-inflicted that time around.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=usd&view=10Y

It's arguably gone a little too far now and will come back to 1.40 or so, but that will probably take a few years. Either way, the fact that GBP prices have remained relatively low until now is actually quite impressive.

In 2006 an SG Standard was about GBP 900, now they're 1100, which is a smaller change than the currency movement should have caused overall. Sure, an LP Standard is double what it was then, but with Amazon's regular blowouts surely noone is buying them at RRP?

I've shown the £ against the Euro, but the principle is the same obviously, the £ and Euro cannot vary independently against the dollar. I'm just trying to show the same thing you've mentioned: long term cycles. I don't think there is evidence to indicate that more than a small part of the current drop is caused by Brexit - we were on a decline already

But it's the contrary, you're trying to rely on long-term cycles and trends - which isn't evidence - it's suggestion.  The actual fact is that the pound has dropped and prices have risen since Brexit - there is only evidence for that.

eh? there's only evidence available for after the vote?
cycles and trends (i.e. recorded real data) are not evidence?

the pound dropped MORE before the Brexit vote, and has recovered considerably from the speculative run that happened after the vote

ToneControl

Whitecat said:

ToneControl said:

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12DCE/production/_90126277_sterling_value_624gr-2.png

ok, so you want to ignore what happened before and after the week of the vote
So, you're only interested about the exchange rate on 27th June 2016?

crunchman

Gassage said:

How on earth can a currency be overvalued for 50 or so years? Do you honestly believe that?

And, also from DB who have almost bankrupted themselves this year.

DB weren't the only people saying that it was overvalued before the referendum.  The IMF (ok not a great track record but still an important organisation) were also saying that the pound was between 5 and 15% over valued.

When I googled it there were a number of other articles on the pound being over valued at that time.

I'm sure that you can find some others who will say the opposite.  After all Osborne managed to find some economists who convinced him we would need an "emergency budget" if we voted out.  He also found economists who said we would be £4k per household better off staying in a doomed organisation.

It's impossible to know how much of it was the pound being overvalued before hand, and how much is market speculation, but to blame everything on Brexit and then cherry pick figures from 2 weeks ago when the pound was nearly 6 cents lower than the current value is being over simplistic.

ToneControl

Gassage said:

ToneControl said:

Gassage said:

I blame the Quitters.

Thing is, it was all so predicatable - I take no pleasure whatsover in saying I told you Quitters so.

it had already dropped far more before the Brexit vote, so why do you blame Brexit?

LOL!!!!!

So wrong- please amend your post.

21st June 2016, £1= $1.5

12th March 2017 £1= $1.19

You need to do more analysis

the peak value of the £ against the dollar since the 2008 crash was $1.71 in July 2014
it went down to $1.47 in April 2015
that's a drop of 24c
by 27th Feb 2016 it reached under $1.39
that's a drop of 32c since 2014

NOW it's just under $1.25
so that's 14c lower than the dip BEFORE the Brexit vote

So:
£ loses 32c BEFORE Brexit
£ loses 14c AFTER Brexit
and your conclusion is that Brexit is solely responsible for the £ losing value, even though it started dropping 2 YEARS before the Brexit vote

Explain to me again how the unexpected Brexit vote CAUSED the £ to drop for 2 years before the vote actually happened

Gassage

Average 2014 was 1.58.

Babones

Definitely Brexit related. I expect it will drop more on Wednesday and be awful for the following decade at least.

ToneControl

Gassage said:

Average 2014 was 1.58.

you'd need to show a bit more analysis than that if you were handing in GCSE economics homework

Strat54

guitars4you said:

I dare say the modern approach of web sites allows us to focus on such issues - years ago unless you went into your local dealer such prices changes became far more 'invisible'

I have a bad habit of buying a Lindt bar of chocolate on a Thursday from Sainsbury's which is only yards from me - Yet that bar of chocolate changes from around £1.20 to £1.70 on a regular basis - so much easier for such operations to hide, manipulate and change prices - If they want to run a big promo of say product A reduced to 99p from £1.50, they can simply add 1p to a 100 different products , be it Cream Crackers or Alpen, and no one notices yet the stores overall margin is protected - They have the logistical ability to do this

Amazon are worst for that, they change their prices almost daily. I added a Cd to basket the other day and then got sidetracked and forgot, noticed two days later that it was still there and went to checkout when I saw a *note that said the price had increased since the disc had been added to basket...yep....it was £7.29 now more expensive!! Not just a couple of quid. On principle I left it. I have tracked a few items like that and the daily price changes are astounding. I played russian roulette with a Jim Campilongo cd that started off at £20.99 and pulled the trigger eventually at £5.99, kept screenshots of all the prices...how retired am I? Lol. 

stickyfiddle

Strat54 said:

guitars4you said:

I dare say the modern approach of web sites allows us to focus on such issues - years ago unless you went into your local dealer such prices changes became far more 'invisible'

I have a bad habit of buying a Lindt bar of chocolate on a Thursday from Sainsbury's which is only yards from me - Yet that bar of chocolate changes from around £1.20 to £1.70 on a regular basis - so much easier for such operations to hide, manipulate and change prices - If they want to run a big promo of say product A reduced to 99p from £1.50, they can simply add 1p to a 100 different products , be it Cream Crackers or Alpen, and no one notices yet the stores overall margin is protected - They have the logistical ability to do this

Amazon are worst for that, they change their prices almost daily. I added a Cd to basket the other day and then got sidetracked and forgot, noticed two days later that it was still there and went to checkout when I saw a *note that said the price had increased since the disc had been added to basket...yep....it was £7.29 now more expensive!! Not just a couple of quid. On principle I left it. I have tracked a few items like that and the daily price changes are astounding. I played russian roulette with a Jim Campilongo cd that started off at £20.99 and pulled the trigger eventually at £5.99, kept screenshots of all the prices...how retired am I? Lol. 

You'd love www.camelcamelcamel.com

Well worth setting up an account there for those things you want at some point but its not time critical but you'll buy it when it's cheap.

richardhomer

My local chippy has raised the price of a small portion of chips by 20p recently - a 13.3% increase! 

Last time I was in, he told me he'd just ordered a Private Stock PRS - so at least he's supporting the guitar trade....

guitars4you

richardhomer said:

My local chippy has raised the price of a small portion of chips by 20p recently - a 13.3% increase! 

Last time I was in, he told me he'd just ordered a Private Stock PRS - so at least he's supporting the guitar trade....

that sounds a bit fishy at 13.3% - I bet the increase on his new local business rates will batter his profits

professorben

guitars4you said:

usedtobe said:

One day, we'll look back on these as the good old days!

wise words - I clearly recall a new Les Paul Deluxe for £365 and a Strat (there was only colour options, maple or r/wood or trem/stop in those days) for £299

I have a good customer that I've known for nearly 40 years - He is  a similar age - left school around 1976, as a 16 year old - Gigging in bands and in 1978 purchased a new LP Custom for just over £400 -  His dad told him he was a fool - His dad is no longer around, yet he still has that guitar and he thinks I'm not so much a fool now

Plus my dad paid under 3K for his first house in 1966 and could not afford the deposit so borrowed it from his boss

True, but what was the interest rate?

guitars4you

professorben said:

guitars4you said:

Plus my dad paid under 3K for his first house in 1966 and could not afford the deposit so borrowed it from his boss

True, but what was the interest rate?

I would not have a clue and I bet he doesn't know either - I always tell him that at that price he should have brought next door as well - I suppose the thing is, that we can always moan about new price increase etc etc, but if the goods are for keeps, then in years to come the price looks far more attractive, following other future price changes