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RandallFlagg's Lay Betting Journal: current betting bank total £488.21

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RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
edited March 2020 in Off Topic
OK, so for some post general election fun, I am going to start a topic where I will post the trials and tribulations of my lay betting journey. I have bet on horse racing for many years and in some years won some money and in other lost some. This is not going to be a tipping service and I don't encourage anyone to follow my bets or place a bet at all. I only bet with money I have already won and usually clear my account out each year if I'm having a good year and leave a little in to start again. I recently re-started with £50 after drawing out profits accumulated through the summer and my bets and results for December are posted below.

I play lay bets on Betfair on selected races/horses at SP (starting price) for a fixed liability. Don't know what a lay bet is? read this: https://betting.betfair.com/how-to-use-betfair-exchange/beginner-guides/placing-a-lay-bet-010819-51.html

At some point I have followed every tipster going and tried every system. Over the years I have developed my own very simple lay betting selection process and staking plan that works for me and can make gains slowly over time...if I remain disciplined! My biggest downfall has been not being disciplined and chasing losses after a losing bet. This is the quick way to go bust so discipline is key but this can mean that after a few losing bets it can take some time for the betting bank to recover and then move on...but, it does eventually if I keep with it and take the long view.

Lay betting can give a bit of a saw tooth pattern, a bit like the stock market but the general trend over time should be upwards. I am staking high at present as I know what I'm doing (I think) but stakes would normally be 5% liability of the betting bank. I am staking £25 fixed liability a bet at present and will keep at this level until the bank reaches £500 and then move on from there. My selection method typically gives 1 or more bets daily through the summer, but can miss a few days through the winter jumps racing season.

Due to work and general life distractions I will typically post my results after the fact but occasionally may post them as I place the bets but before they run, if I can.

This is only for shits and giggles, only takes a few minutes a day of my time and is a bit of fun. If it goes belly up I have lost nothing, if it make a few ££ then all good, I don't have a target in mind let's just see where it goes. It could be a long slow ride so don't expect this to be a get rich quick adventure, or it could fold before Christmas.

You join the fun with my results for December and there are a couple of potential bets for today as I have my eye on a couple of races. I need to see how the races price up nearer to start time and will decide if I'm placing bets or not, I usually make my decisions and place bets around lunchtime.

Today's potential races to bet on:

13:55 Cheltenham
14:55 Hereford

Results for December with a 19% profit month to date:




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Comments

  • Today's bet is an SP lay for £25 on Brelan Das in the 13:55 at Cheltenham


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  • Its not like anyone would be addicted to this on here.  We arent addictive personalities by and large
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  • FunkfingersFunkfingers Frets: 14321
    edited December 2019
    The only gambling I ever did in relation to horses was at school, eating the "beef" pies at the canteen.



    EDIT: The supplier was prosecuted for including unfit/unidentified meat in their products. A swift name change fooled nobody.
    Be seeing you.
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  • Subscribed.

    Interesting stuff this. 

    Thanks Gary.
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited December 2019
    Today's bet is an SP lay for £25 on Brelan Das in the 13:55 at Cheltenham
    Today's bet WON £2.53 profit betting bank new total is £230.26

    The odds went a little higher than I expected at 10.38 SP

    Might add a sound track along the way with occasional songs from my iTunes collection reflecting my mood on the day. Today's track is Eva Cassidy - People Get Ready



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  • No bet today.


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  • Emp_FabEmp_Fab Frets: 24208
    Lack of planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on mine.
    Also chips are "Plant-based" no matter how you cook them.
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  • DefaultMDefaultM Frets: 7271
    Nice. I'm doing similar with odds boosts, kelly staking based on the edge I've got over the true odds on Betfair.

    I was doing another system based on each way bets that I got up to like £4k profit on over 12 months. Upped my stake to £5ew, lost £500 in a day and ran for my life haha.
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited December 2019
    DefaultM said:
    Nice. I'm doing similar with odds boosts, kelly staking based on the edge I've got over the true odds on Betfair.

    I was doing another system based on each way bets that I got up to like £4k profit on over 12 months. Upped my stake to £5ew, lost £500 in a day and ran for my life haha.
    Highest I got to was £5K a couple of years a go then bottled and withdrew it. It's hard to make profit long term, odds really stacked against you. Let's see how goes, can I get enough for a new R9 this time next year?


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  • DefaultMDefaultM Frets: 7271
    Yeah it gets tricky once you've got a bit of profit.
    I'm really robotic in general and don't put emotion in to gambling as I don't even like sport, it's more like a maths experiment for me. However, it suggested I put £250 on a football game as the odds boost was massive. I immediately knew that was out of my comfort zone but I decided to compromise and do £100. Still more than I'd staked before, but I was fine with it. 

    Oh my goodness. I was watching the score constantly, my heart was in my throat. I was thinking stuff like "oh Arsenal will score again" but based on absolutely nothing as I don't even watch the games. I was horrified with myself.
    Arsenal started winning all the way to injury time, then the other team scored, the 90 minutes ended and I just burst out laughing and said never again. 

    It wasn't even that I didn't want to lose the £100, it was that I really wanted to win the £450. Just for that brief excited moment. There wasn't anything I wanted to buy. I didn't need the money, it would just get reused in the betting bank. Absolutely mad and I can definitely see how someone could combine it with a love for sport and ruin their life.
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  • DefaultM said:
    Yeah it gets tricky once you've got a bit of profit.
    I'm really robotic in general and don't put emotion in to gambling as I don't even like sport, it's more like a maths experiment for me. However, it suggested I put £250 on a football game as the odds boost was massive. I immediately knew that was out of my comfort zone but I decided to compromise and do £100. Still more than I'd staked before, but I was fine with it. 

    Oh my goodness. I was watching the score constantly, my heart was in my throat. I was thinking stuff like "oh Arsenal will score again" but based on absolutely nothing as I don't even watch the games. I was horrified with myself.
    Arsenal started winning all the way to injury time, then the other team scored, the 90 minutes ended and I just burst out laughing and said never again. 

    It wasn't even that I didn't want to lose the £100, it was that I really wanted to win the £450. Just for that brief excited moment. There wasn't anything I wanted to buy. I didn't need the money, it would just get reused in the betting bank. Absolutely mad and I can definitely see how someone could combine it with a love for sport and ruin their life.
    Agreed, I never watch the races I bet on and don't get emotionally attached at all. When the stakes get up to a few hundred £ per bet you need mental strength to keep focussed, it's like walking a tight rope across a canyon, you mustn't look down.


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  • DefaultM said:
    I was thinking stuff like "oh Arsenal will score again"
    I can see where you went wrong there.
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  • KittyfriskKittyfrisk Frets: 18376
    Feeling mildly cheated, expected much more salacious content from the thread title.
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  • Feeling mildly cheated, expected much more salacious content from the thread title.
    Those why don't know what lay betting is can sometimes raise an eyebrow when I tell them I try and lay one horse a day.  =)


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  • KittyfriskKittyfrisk Frets: 18376
    I got told off for suggesting having a two-way ... some people, really!
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  • welbywelby Frets: 17
    Interesting thread, have you ever considered opposing or laying using spread betting? 
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  • welby said:
    Interesting thread, have you ever considered opposing or laying using spread betting? 
    Nah, I keep it simple. The process I follow works for me, it's been hammered out over years of following horse races and suits my desire to keep it to a few minutes a day. I used to spend hours backing, laying, trading in running etc.


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  • welbywelby Frets: 17
    Fair enough I'm interested to see how it goes and will follow the thread.
    Thanks 

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited December 2019
    Not a lot of interest in todays cards but keeping an eye on the 16:05 at Wolverhampton. I'm not keen on betting on the all weather surface racing and have been stung at Wolverhampton a few times but will see how the prices shake down later.


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  • DefaultMDefaultM Frets: 7271
    Do you go for SP because unlike backing, with laying you want to see if the price comes down so you can lay more?

    I've been thinking about starting my each way betting again, but queuing a lay on the win that I leave in play. Just not sure if it would annoy me the times the horse went on to actually win.
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