RandallFlagg's Lay Betting Journal: current betting bank total £488.21

RandallFlagg

Today's bet:

15:00 Warwick The Conditional SP lay £25. tentative on the chances on this bet

welby

Nice one 

RandallFlagg

RandallFlagg said:

Today's bet:

15:00 Warwick The Conditional SP lay £25. tentative on the chances on this bet

Bet won, matched at odds of 5.60 for £5.16 profit

Betting bank now stands at £289.18

RandallFlagg

Current strike rate after 31 bets is 93.5%, my target is 95% which can be hard to sustain in the summer when there are more frequent bets.



Although my system can go days without a bet in winter, I prefer to keep the powder dry and wait patiently for the bets to come. I am never in a hurry to risk losing money unnecessarily by betting outside my strict selection criteria.

The P&L graph looks good at present, showing the classic lay betting "saw tooth" but it's early days yet....

welby

Looks good so far 

RandallFlagg

No bet today (Sunday 12th Jan)

You'll see better racing from the Skeggy donkeys

YellowLedBetterMan

I know of an increasing number of students who do something similar to this instead of having a part time job.

Might have to give it a whirl myself.

RandallFlagg

YellowLedBetterMan said:

I know of an increasing number of students who do something similar to this instead of having a part time job.

Might have to give it a whirl myself.

Same as trading on the stock market, it's the long game that delivers, once I start compounding profit by increasing the amount bet as the bank rises then the amounts being won should start to increase as well...if it goes well.

If I was a student I would be doing this and setting up a portfolio of dividend paying stocks on the stock market using the Freetrade app. and be looking to subscribe to the F.I.R.E. movements idealogy aiming for as much regular passive income as I could.

RandallFlagg

A couple shortlisted for today:

• 15:45 Lingfield
• 16:20 Wolverhampton

Bets to follow later if the price is right!

RandallFlagg

Today's bets:

• 15:45 Lingfield Little Red Lion SP lay £25 liability
• 16:20 Wolverhampton Eloquent Poet SP lay £25 liability

Having to put these on a little earlier than I would like as I am at work and in meetings this afternoon, would ideally prefer to see how the prices move up to the off.

welby

Both Losers so winners Good work

  The all weather Wolverhampton sometimes throws up some strange results 2nd horse came in at 33/1  

YellowLedBetterMan

I started doing this today, had the same 2 bets as you. Up to £24.47 from £20.

Easiest pint I've ever earned.

RandallFlagg

Both today's bets won:

• 15:45 Lingfield Little Red Lion WIN £5.79
• 16:20 Wolverhampton Eloquent Poet WIN £3.59

Betting bank now stands at £298.56

DrCornelius

 Wow that’s excellent work and discipline that I could never have.

DefaultM

If you're just starting out then I'm not sure I'd advise doing so with lay betting; unless you really know what you're doing. 

I'm massively in to most forms of gambling and do very well, but I'll be admiring this from afar.
Say you choose 5 losing horses and make £25. If the next one you pick wins with a £25 liability then that's all your profit wiped and back to zero.
Or less likely but still happens, you pick 5 winners. Straight away you're down £125 if you've set a £25 liability per horse. Coming back from that is going to be very difficult.

Extreme example of 'anything can happen' but there's a story online from an experienced trader. He was watching a horse race, and there was this horse right at the back of the field losing by a great distance. Thinking he was about to make the easiest £10 of his life he laid it; only to watch it strap on its rocket boots and win. £10,000 gone in an instant, trying to make £10.

YellowLedBetterMan

The way I see it, even as a student if I was to lose £20 it's not the end of the world. If I can use that £20 to make another £20 over the course of a week or two, then cash it out, then thats my food shopping paid for. I don't intend on putting in more than £20 a month and cashing out anything above that on the last day of each month, and if it all goes tits up then I'll draw a line under it as £20 lost and go again the following month.

RandallFlagg

DefaultM said:

If you're just starting out then I'm not sure I'd advise doing so with lay betting; unless you really know what you're doing. 

I'm massively in to most forms of gambling and do very well, but I'll be admiring this from afar.
Say you choose 5 losing horses and make £25. If the next one you pick wins with a £25 liability then that's all your profit wiped and back to zero.
Or less likely but still happens, you pick 5 winners. Straight away you're down £125 if you've set a £25 liability per horse. Coming back from that is going to be very difficult.

Extreme example of 'anything can happen' but there's a story online from an experienced trader. He was watching a horse race, and there was this horse right at the back of the field losing by a great distance. Thinking he was about to make the easiest £10 of his life he laid it; only to watch it strap on its rocket boots and win. £10,000 gone in an instant, trying to make £10.

Not sure if the just starting out comment is for me or not but I agree that lay betting is not a get rich quick way of betting, the results to date are flattering, losing bets are coming and they do soon eat into the gains. I expect at some point to have 2-3 losing bets in a row, wiping out best part of a months profits overnight. I play the long game, which takes discipline and mental strength.

As I posted in the OP I do not recommend anyone follows my bets. At some point I will stop posting in advance and just post results after the fact but for will carry on as is.

This is interesting, the relationship between strike rate and number of bets in a losing run:

DefaultM

Forgot to quote the post sorry, it was in response to the students using it instead of a part time job. 

The only way you can make a consistent monthly earning is with an edge. Yours would (I assume) be experience and knowledge, which is something I don't see a lot of students having as it's pretty specialist. 
They're probably matched betting, but in my opinion it's pretty dead these days unfortunately unless you've already got some money behind you. 

YellowLedBetterMan

DefaultM said:

Forgot to quote the post sorry, it was in response to the students using it instead of a part time job. 

The only way you can make a consistent monthly earning is with an edge. Yours would (I assume) be experience and knowledge, which is something I don't see a lot of students having as it's pretty specialist. 
They're probably matched betting, but in my opinion it's pretty dead these days unfortunately unless you've already got some money behind you. 

The way a lot of students do it is by setting up accounts to take advantage of special offers. For instance if you set up an account and deposit £10, you may get £30 in free bets. With some bookmakers placing a 4-fold accumulator gives you a free bet once per week with the same value of the accumulator stake. You cash out the accumulator before it runs for a minor loss and keep the free bet.

Place the free bet on something, the cash on a lay bet, guaranteed profit. Repeat ad infinitum.

There of course is the limitation of waiting for such offers, and bookies become wise to the same email, bank account and address being used to make multiple accounts, so it's not like you make loads, but there's people that'll earn between £20-50 a week reliably by doing that.

DefaultM

Yeah, these days the majority of offers are more like stock trading/investing. Back and lay an event, and if a certain thing happens at that event you may be able to guarantee a profit.

The other thing is as you say, your accounts last only a matter of weeks these days. You've not known heartbreak until you've seen someone post a win of £500, then 15 posts later they check their email and realise Bet365 have closed their account as a result and now they'll never do it again.