RandallFlagg's Lay Betting Journal: current betting bank total £488.21

RandallFlagg

Keeping an eye on the first race on today's card 13:05 Doncaster, looks a contender for a bet.

Also, 17:30 Chelmsford is a slight possibility.

Will see how the markets and pricing form up.

RandallFlagg

Today's bets:

• 13:05 Doncaster The Boola Bee SP lay £25 liability
• 17:30 Chelmsford Chetan SP Lay £25 liability

YellowLedBetterMan

I haven't had any today. Fancied backing the longshot in the 13.05 (which did end up winning) but in the end couldn't decide.

welby

1st horse finished 10th so great work again 

I used to be indecisive but now i'm not so sure 

King85

It's nice to see the number going up every time I see it, good work!

DefaultM

Odds on a lot of mine have drifted terribly today. Took one that ended up drifting to 80/1 and placing but I've not got best odds guaranteed 

RandallFlagg

Both today's bets won:

• 13:05 Doncaster The Boola Bee bet matched at odds of 7.40 WIN £3.70
• 17:30 Chelmsford Chetan bet matched at odds of 5.14 WIN £4.97

Betting bank new total is £307.23

I could buy a nice Squier Classic Vibe 70s Tele Custom or a new Strymon pedal for that....with my free money....but...we'll keep going.

YellowLedBetterMan

I don't want to jump on the bandwagon too much, but I am now on £28.87 from £20 yesterday morning.

I haven't picked the same horses, mind.

RandallFlagg

YellowLedBetterMan said:

I don't want to jump on the bandwagon too much, but I am now on £28.87 from £20 yesterday morning.

I haven't picked the same horses, mind.

If you are lay betting I recommend you lay 5% maximum liability per bet or you will go bust when the losing bets come. I am betting a higher percentage at present as I have some experience, when I get to £500 the £25 lay liability will be 5% and will increase from there as the bank rises.

Laying £20 from a bank of £28 is going to blowout at the first losing bet.

YellowLedBetterMan

It's at most only ever a £5 liability.

RandallFlagg

No bet today

RandallFlagg

Not a lot of interest today, just keeping an eye on the 14:55 at Ludlow, it's marginal but could be a bet later

YellowLedBetterMan

I'm back down to £24.67 after Tokyo Getaway won yesterday's 15.05.

Craziest thing is I could've cashed out for a £1.90 profit for the vast majority of the race and be standing on £30 something.

Still up from where we started.

RandallFlagg

No bet today

DefaultM

Talking generally to the room, you should have a look in to bad each way races. 
Basically there's a certain type of race where a horse might have long odds to win, but a pretty good chance of placing.
Bookies are only able to pay out a place as a fraction of the win odds, so you might get a 10/1 pay out when the true odds of that horse placing were 9/1.

I'd recommend starting at 50p each way, or even 25p because losing runs do happen, but the idea is over a large sample size of bets your average true odds will be lower than the average payouts you're receiving. Like if someone gave you 5/4 odds on calling a coin toss. You might lose 10 times in a row but as long as you don't blow your bank during that you should be able to continue and average out in profit.

RandallFlagg

Looking at 3 races on my shortlist today:

• 13:10 Chepstow
• 13:20 Musselburgh
• 15:45 Newcastle

Will decide on bets around lunchtime

RandallFlagg

Today's bet:

13:10 Chepstow The Ogle Gogle Man SP lay £25 liability

The other 2 races aren't quite right on pricing, will keep watching up to the off.

DefaultM

You've not laid any that I've backed yet, and it's been a month. I must be getting alright at this haha. 

RandallFlagg

Today's bet won:

13:10 Chepstow The Ogle Gogle Man WIN £5.04 matched at odd of 5.70

Betting bank now stands at £312.27

DefaultM

Out of interest what is it about laying that you prefer to backing? 
I've been weighing it up in my head and I like that there are more chances to win your bet due to all but one horse losing, but I can't get past risking more than I would make.
I have similar issues when I back at short odds. Last Cheltenham William Hill did a massive boost on Altior to win but it was still under evens. I took it but ended up laying it off before the race because I couldn't stand the thought of losing £50 trying to make £45.
Though to be fair it was the same festival where I'd just watched Sir Erec go from being the SP fave to being put down, so that was also an influence.