Second wave

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Emp_FabEmp_Fab Frets: 18570
Personally, I think they're lifting restrictions too early.  I think we will be hit with a second wave of this, possibly worse than the first.
From looking at the huge increase in traffic going past, I think people are seeing "relaxation of lockdown" and translating that to "It's all over - everything is back to normal", and abandoning social distancing.

What is your experience - is it similar ?  ...and do you think we're in for a second round of this as a result ?
WITH AN OWL!!
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  • https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

    This is an interesting read. 

    People are continuing with lockdown mentality around here. RAF Museum is still closed, streets are still quiet, still widely spaced out queues at the local Tesco and Sainsburys. Very little traffic. I went for a jog earlier and there was mutual avoidance anytime I came across someone else.


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  • octatonicoctatonic Frets: 27875
    No second wave in Switzerland thus far and life has largely returned to normal.
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  • octatonic said:
    No second wave in Switzerland thus far and life has largely returned to normal.
    It'll happen by October.
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  • octatonicoctatonic Frets: 27875
    octatonic said:
    No second wave in Switzerland thus far and life has largely returned to normal.
    It'll happen by October.
    Perhaps.
    When I say 'largely returned to normal' I mean with sensible precautions, social distancing but you can still go to a cafe, get a haircut etc- I don't mean exactly as things were before.
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  • cruxiformcruxiform Frets: 1642
    Totally agree. Around here in Surrey, the traffic has been very busy. Drove past a few tourist spots earlier and they're rammed.

    Second wave is inevitable. People who have fucked it up for the rest of us can't moan when we're asked to lockdown again, but they will. Have a friend in Cornwall who has told me that second home owners are having their belongings shipped there and driving down afterwards. Twats. 

    We can thank the current government for advancing the relaxation when hundreds of people are still dying daily and against the scientist's advice. 

    The death toll is going to be massive imo. 

    I really, really hope I'm wrong. 


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  • I don't have a lot of confidence that we won't get a second wave given the complete shit-show we have had running the response so far.

    I think managing any second wave will come down to being able to swiftly and accurately reimpose localised 'lock downs' when and where needed, just as they have been doing in places like South Korea and Germany thus far. The ability to do that will rely massively on the 'Track & Trace' program getting up to speed, but given the chaotic way it's been thrown together over the past 2-3 weeks I'm not holding out much hope.  :/
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  • FunkfingersFunkfingers Frets: 6665
    The UK Track And Trace system currently amounts to call centres, staffed mostly by furloughed people, who have received scant training in whatever they are supposed to be doing on roll out day.



    Be seeing you.
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  • stratman3142stratman3142 Frets: 1165
    edited June 1
    If people follow the government advice it should be avoided because they'll adapt the guidelines to deal with the situation. But whether people actually follow the advice is another matter.

    Part of me thinks/hopes that most are following the advice and the press are focusing on the minority that aren't.

    There was a local report in Exmouth that groups of youths were giving the police grief, which may be true but I hope it's a small minority. When I look at the Exmouth Seafront beach webcam throughout the day it looks like social distancing it taking place. We only visit the local beach early and it's fine.

    It's not a competition.
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  • stratman3142stratman3142 Frets: 1165
    edited June 1
    I think there should be a policy that anyone that Lol's a post to anything that isn't intended humour should make themselves known and justify their position. Otherwise it's a cowardly response.
    It's not a competition.
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  • StratavariousStratavarious Frets: 432
    edited June 1
    I don’t think Switzerland is remotely the comparison. Having spent a lot of time in Switzerland, the scenes we had here today, I guarantee, are not something you would see there.

    i live in a beauty spot town... so you expect some crowds - but cars double parked on every verge as far as far as the eye could see today... it’s never been this busy.  Boy racers, bikers... the whole noisy lot of them

    About 3000 people crammed themselves in an area about 50yards from my house that would be just about comfortable for 200.  Groups of 15-20 bbq’ing. No distancing. Kids falling over each other.  A total collapse of common sense.

    Two tiny gates for everyone to squeeze through... no masks in sight.

    i tried to direct a couple of families who blocked my, and my neighbours, cars in, to some much nicer, much quieter locations but they were determined to join the heaving mass with gran and the kids.   

    Then their filth.. the piles of steaming, stinking filth... . There is no open public toilet, so the sunburned, dirty, sweaty fuckers were shitting and pissing in my hedges and leaving their excrement and trash everywhere.  

    We already had a 1.3 local R rate.  I am concerned what the next few weeks will hold.

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  • gringopiggringopig Frets: 2648
    edited July 25
    .
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  • stratman3142stratman3142 Frets: 1165
    edited June 1
    gringopig said:
    I think there should be a policy that anyone that Lol's a post to anything that isn't intended humour should make themselves known and justify their position. Otherwise it's a cowardly response.
    I gave you a LOL on the above. 
    There is no button that allows me to express more complex thoughts such as: I disagree with this ill-informed speculation.
    It's also not a forum where views which aren't shared by a small group of similarly minded individuals can be expressed freely as I found out.

    There is no place here for other views, so in the absence of a civil discussion of opposing views and the atmosphere of intimidation and hostility, a LOL will have to do.

    In answer to the original point:

    Talk of a second wave being larger than the original spread and death tolls being 'massive' is just wrong...
     Thanks. I much appreciate and respect your response. You are correct that it is speculation on my part because I genuinely don't know and choose to put my faith in the current government scientific advice. I download the latest government guidance documents and read them. I assume restrictions will be rapidly lifted if the cases are declining sufficiently.
    It's not a competition.
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  • gringopiggringopig Frets: 2648
    edited July 25
    .
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  • TTonyTTony Frets: 19751
    This post is not visible as you have chosen to ignore this member!s posts.

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  • horsehorse Frets: 878
    It's good to hear that some of you are more confident than the scientists I've heard this weekend expressing concerns, or the government who have extended the massively expensive furlough scheme until October.

    Some of the responses seem to ignore the fact that we haven't had a "natural" first wave. Surely the level of restrictions we've had in place have done a lot to limit the reach of infection. As a result many of us are still waiting to experience it for the first time? Or at least we don't have any reliable reasons to believe we're anywhere near herd immunity levels?
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  • TTony said:
    This post is not visible as you have chosen to ignore this member!s posts.

    Erm... ???
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  • gringopiggringopig Frets: 2648
    edited July 25
    .
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  • fields5069fields5069 Frets: 2926
    edited June 1
    Let's face it, we're not rocket scientists. If we were then we'd be wasting an awful lot of time on an internet forum when we could be saving the world.

    Pretty much every opinion on here is based on pure speculation. We have extremes at either end of the spectrum - on the one hand you should go out, meet people and maybe die because "economy", or the other hand you should say in until a vaccine is found. I'm erring towards the latter, because "self-preservation", which is awfully selfish of me I'm sure.

    The reason restrictions are being relaxed is that the government feel there is capacity for further infection. Meeting people for a barbecue is not going to get the economy back on track.
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  • Rocket scientists don't save the world. They build rockets. Just saying ;)

    Not all opinions on here are based in speculation. Some people actually have read white papers and historical reports to base their opinion on. Obviously we have extremes at either end of the spectrum, that's why they're called the ends of the spectrum!
    TACOMA NARROWS BRIDGE DISASTER
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  • thecolourboxthecolourbox Frets: 5604
    edited June 1
    There will definitely be a second wave, without a doubt. People around these parts appear to be bored of distancing as it's essentially a free for all. Lots of "it's ok if I just... " type attitudes as people can quite easily convince themselves they aren't doing anything wrong, then the other half is just deliberately not following it. Birmingham is a pretty densely populated area so it'll definitely have a second peak. How dangerous to life it is we can't know, we aren't scientists nor Nostradamus. Although I fear I may be the Kaiser Chiefs, because I predict a riot at some point.

    I am pretty much doing what the government tell us to do, even though I do not trust them in the slightest to know what to do, or to do what is best for people. But I feel I can't moan about it afterwards if I didn't follow it as I've no answers either. 
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  • prowlaprowla Frets: 3047
    horse said:
    It's good to hear that some of you are more confident than the scientists I've heard this weekend expressing concerns, or the government who have extended the massively expensive furlough scheme until October.

    Some of the responses seem to ignore the fact that we haven't had a "natural" first wave. Surely the level of restrictions we've had in place have done a lot to limit the reach of infection. As a result many of us are still waiting to experience it for the first time? Or at least we don't have any reliable reasons to believe we're anywhere near herd immunity levels?

    Given that "the scientists" don't agree and indeed don't have the data required (because we're not measuring things), some of the science and projection models are as useful as pinning the tail on the donkey.
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  • prowlaprowla Frets: 3047
    As for the 2nd wave, the Government is pretty clear (or is that "absolutely clear" in politicalspeak) that the "R" number is king and if it jumps up then they'll put the brakes on.
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  • p90foolp90fool Frets: 18305
    While I think everyone is speculating about the severity of a second wave, some with more information at their fingertips than others, I think the consequences of one are almost too politically sensitive to be honest about. 

    I'd like to see some thoughts on getting a seemingly inevitable second wave over with at the height of summer rather than postponing it until colder weather arrives affects the severity of it. 

    The trouble is it's too emotive a subject, people will regard anyone who dies in an early, less severe second wave as being deliberately sacrificed, so we have to go through this charade where we pretend we can avoid one completely. 

    A bit of honesty would be welcome, but very unlikely. 
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  • TTonyTTony Frets: 19751
    Rocket scientists don't save the world. They build rockets. Just saying ;)

    No they don't.

    The rocket scientists just work out how the rockets should be built.

    There's a couple of guys in a garage, who've got a big collection of spanners, who actually build them.  

    I think one of the guys is called Elon, and the other is called Mush.  Or it might be Mash?
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  • thecolourboxthecolourbox Frets: 5604
    prowla said:
    As for the 2nd wave, the Government is pretty clear (or is that "absolutely clear" in politicalspeak) that the "R" number is king and if it jumps up then they'll put the brakes on.
    But isn't the R Rate a mathematical calculation based on number of infections now divided by the number of infections say 2 weeks ago? I may be wrong on that, but I thought that was the case. If so, how on earth can we have an R rate to use if we are still not actually testing reliably consistently etc?

    Nobody knows what they are doing. I'm not even sure there would be any more unrest about this if those people working on this actually came out and admitted it - we don't know.

    Certainly the government's dishonesty about aiming for herd immunity all along is more of a mental strain for me than the approach itself
    When the heartbeat drives you mad, remember what you had
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  • DontgiveupyourdayjobDontgiveupyourdayjob Frets: 1679
    edited June 1
    prowla said:
    As for the 2nd wave, the Government is pretty clear (or is that "absolutely clear" in politicalspeak) that the "R" number is king and if it jumps up then they'll put the brakes on.
    The problem is, will enough people obey a potential second lockdown? A huge amount of public trust and political good will has been spent on getting people to follow the rules the first time around. Now that people are fed up, are starting to struggle financially, are wanting to head out into sun all day long, I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of it being as well observed the second time around.

    The general floundering and confused response from the Government, compounded by the farcical Dominic Cummings fiasco, has massively weakened the all-important public trust in the messaging coming from on high.
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  • TTonyTTony Frets: 19751

    prowla said:
    As for the 2nd wave, the Government is pretty clear (or is that "absolutely clear" in politicalspeak) that the "R" number is king and if it jumps up then they'll put the brakes on.
    I don't see how we can avoid an uptick in cases.

    Whether or not that counts as a second spike, or peak, or wave, or whatever can be debated in a load more technical papers.

    But, after how-many-weeks of lockdown, we've still got R somewhere just below 1 and thousands of new cases being found every day.  If the virus is still managing to spread itself during lockdown, how much more effectively will it spread now?

    Whether it's people sitting on beaches, or marching in London, taking kids to school, getting back on tubes, trains & buses, or otherwise just getting bored of the whole be-careful-this-thing-kills message ... there's going to be a lot more opportunities for the virus to spread, and it will take those opportunities.

    I'd say it's a race between the govt having to re-impose lockdown and more effective treatments (NB, not vaccine) being developed such that the increased spread doesn't lead to a similar increased death count.
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  • fields5069fields5069 Frets: 2926
    Rocket scientists don't save the world. They build rockets. Just saying ;)

    Not all opinions on here are based in speculation. Some people actually have read white papers and historical reports to base their opinion on. Obviously we have extremes at either end of the spectrum, that's why they're called the ends of the spectrum!
    Well, yeah. Not even the scientists agree, though. What chance has a keyboard warrior got to find the truth?
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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 13220




    Great.



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