Sell Tesla?

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited October 2021
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether the tide is with you or against you.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    edited October 2021
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether tithe tide is with you or against you.
    certainly, until the bubble bursts, which would be a disaster for me, since I'm 3-15 months from retirement
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether tithe tide is with you or against you.
    certainly, until the bubble bursts, which would be a disaster for me, since I'm 3-15 months from retirement
    The bubble will burst at some point either before or during retirement more than once. A safe withdrawal rate and a cash buffer is needed to cover these events.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether tithe tide is with you or against you.
    certainly, until the bubble bursts, which would be a disaster for me, since I'm 3-15 months from retirement
    The bubble will burst at some point either before or during retirement more than once. A safe withdrawal rate and a cash buffer is needed to cover these events.
    I'd say first priority is protecting the bulk of the capital with low or managed risks

    "Rule number 1: Never lose money. Rule number 2: Don't forget rule number 1.” 
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether tithe tide is with you or against you.
    certainly, until the bubble bursts, which would be a disaster for me, since I'm 3-15 months from retirement
    The bubble will burst at some point either before or during retirement more than once. A safe withdrawal rate and a cash buffer is needed to cover these events.
    I'd say first priority is protecting the bulk of the capital with low or managed risks

    "Rule number 1: Never lose money. Rule number 2: Don't forget rule number 1.” 
    Paper losses aren't losses until materialised, as long as you don't drawdown while stocks are notably down, drops in valuations are of no concern if not sold while prices are down. The same Oracle that you quote also said that if you can't stomach seeing your portfoli drop by 50% in value at some point then investing in stocks may not right for you. It's happened 3 times in Warren Buffets lifetime.


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  • ArchtopDaveArchtopDave Frets: 1367
    edited October 2021
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether tithe tide is with you or against you.
    certainly, until the bubble bursts, which would be a disaster for me, since I'm 3-15 months from retirement
    The bubble will burst at some point either before or during retirement more than once. A safe withdrawal rate and a cash buffer is needed to cover these events.
    I'd say first priority is protecting the bulk of the capital with low or managed risks

    "Rule number 1: Never lose money. Rule number 2: Don't forget rule number 1.” 
    Your "Rule number 1" can have more than one meaning, and really does not stand up to scrutiny if you are prepared to invest, as there is always going to be some element of risk, and hence a finite risk of losing money/seeing your investments go down in value. It is important to never forget the damage that inflation, even a low rate of inflation, does to the worth of your investments. So, at minimum, you need to keep up with inflation in order to maintain your net worth.
     I am fortunate in that I only need to spend a proportion of my pension income each month, and I save money from my income virtually every month. I have actually increased my investment risk profile in order to hopefully increase the long term rate of return of my investments, and this is in the face of reaching that time of life where financial advisers like to tell you that you've got to give your hard earnt money away!
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    Never a better advert for buying the index, remove all emotion, remove all decision making, no market timing, forget fundamentals analytics, forget the news, forget everything except dollar cost average buying month in month out regardless of whether tithe tide is with you or against you.
    certainly, until the bubble bursts, which would be a disaster for me, since I'm 3-15 months from retirement
    The bubble will burst at some point either before or during retirement more than once. A safe withdrawal rate and a cash buffer is needed to cover these events.
    I'd say first priority is protecting the bulk of the capital with low or managed risks

    "Rule number 1: Never lose money. Rule number 2: Don't forget rule number 1.” 
    Your "Rule number 1" can have more than one meaning, and really does not stand up to scrutiny if you are prepared to invest, as there is always going to be some element of risk, and hence a finite risk of losing money/seeing your investments go down in value. It is important to never forget the damage that inflation, even a low rate of inflation, does to the worth of your investments. So, at minimum, you need to keep up with inflation in order to maintain your net worth.
     I am fortunate in that I only need to spend a proportion of my pension income each month, and I save money from my income virtually every month. I have actually increased my investment risk profile in order to hopefully increase the long term rate of return of my investments, and this is in the face of reaching that time of life where financial advisers like to tell you that you've got to give your hard earnt money away!
    the point is, that once you have a large amount of capital, it's best to avoid higher risk strategies that risk much or all of it
    e.g. instead of investing all on the S+P500 tracker, you could invest some of it in options on the S+P



    anyway, here's investopedia's explanation of Buffet's rule 1

    "Rule Number One: Never Lose Money. Rule Number Two: Never Forget Rule Number One"

    Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA rating. So how can he tell us to never lose money?

    He's referring to the mindset of a sensible investor. Don't be frivolous. Don't gamble. Don't go into an investment with a cavalier attitude that it's okay to lose. Be informed. Do your homework. Buffett invests only in companies he thoroughly researches and understands. He doesn't go into an investment prepared to lose, and neither should you.

    Buffett believes the most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. A successful investor doesn't focus on being with or against the crowd.

    The stock market will experience swings. But in good times and bad, Buffett stays focused on his goals, and so should all investors. This esteemed investor rarely changes his long-term investing strategy no matter what the market does.

    so, if you are retiring this year, don't invest your life savings in meme stocks 

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  • LebarqueLebarque Frets: 3755
    So what's going on with the stock market, chaps? I checked my funds today for the first time in a while and had a nasty shock!
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  • Lebarque said:
    So what's going on with the stock market, chaps? I checked my funds today for the first time in a while and had a nasty shock!

    It's generally been a pretty bad couple of months globally. Mostly due to Omicron fears and the knock-on effects.

    I assume that once things start reopening investors will be more confident and drive prices up. 

    My advice is to not sell anything right now. I expect Early March we will be back to November levels. 

    Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional. 
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  • The S&P500 skirted with correction (-10%) in January but is currently only around 4.5% down for the year to date.

    Take the long view, this is business as usual.


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  • The S&P500 skirted with correction (-10%) in January but is currently only around 4.5% down for the year to date.

    Take the long view, this is business as usual.
    Yeah, pretty much everything has been flat for a while and most of that took a dive last week. It'll bounce eventually. Arguably probably a good time to buy if you have a long-term outlook 
    The Assumptions - UAE party band for all your rock & soul desires
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    So since 2010, S&P has risen over 600% 
    And no one thinks it's already over-valued?
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  • robertyroberty Frets: 10893
    The trend is up until it isn't
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  • So since 2010, S&P has risen over 600% 
    And no one thinks it's already over-valued?
    Of course. I'm not invested in the S&P 500 :D 
    The Assumptions - UAE party band for all your rock & soul desires
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited February 2022
    So since 2010, S&P has risen over 600% 
    And no one thinks it's already over-valued?
    If you look at the S&P500 growth since the 1930s viewed as most charts show in linear scale then the rise since the 2008 crash recovery looks exaggerated, viewed logarithmically, which puts growth into a more reflective perspective of the compounding, the rise over decades has been quite steady and the last 10 years doesn't look abnormal.

    Also, most of the 500 companies in the S&P500 are not over valued, it's the top 6, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet & Amazon that could be considered over valued that skew the index. However, It would be hard to bet against Apple at the moment, I can see them hitting a $4 trillion market cap easily based on their performance. Apple make up over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. 

    As Warren Buffet says, regularly buying a low cost broad cross section of America, such as the S&P500, is all the common investor needs to do to become very wealthy over the long term. $10,000 invested in 1941 with dividends reinvested would be in excess of $51,000,000 now. America will be very successful and so will American businesses during this century, albeit in fits and starts.

    Donald Trump would have more money now by doing just that than pursuing his real estate career with the money his father gave him at the start of his career, with zero effort.

    "Buy VOO (Vanguard's S&P500 index fund) and chill" as many American say and do.

    S&P500 Linear:



    S&P500 Logarithmic:



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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    So since 2010, S&P has risen over 600% 
    And no one thinks it's already over-valued?
    If you look at the S&P500 growth since the 1930s viewed as most charts show in linear scale then the rise since the 2008 crash recovery looks exaggerated, viewed logarithmically, which puts growth into a more reflective perspective of the compounding, the rise over decades has been quite steady and the last 10 years doesn't look abnormal.

    Also, most of the 500 companies in the S&P500 are not over valued, it's the top 6, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet & Amazon that could be considered over valued that skew the index. However, It would be hard to bet against Apple at the moment, I can see them hitting a $4 trillion market cap easily based on their performance. Apple make up over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. 

    As Warren Buffet says, regularly buying a low cost broad cross section of America, such as the S&P500, is all the common investor needs to do to become very wealthy over the long term. $10,000 invested in 1941 with dividends reinvested would be in excess of $51,000,000 now. America will be very successful and so will American businesses during this century, albeit in fits and starts.

    Donald Trump would have more money now by doing just that than pursuing his real estate career with the money his father gave him at the start of his career, with zero effort.

    "Buy VOO (Vanguard's S&P500 index fund) and chill" as many American say and do.

    S&P500 Linear:



    S&P500 Logarithmic:


    the logarithmic one looking straight - that basically means the underlying data is exponentially rising, does it not? 
    Can you find a precedent for the 2010-2022 rise?
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited February 2022
    So since 2010, S&P has risen over 600% 
    And no one thinks it's already over-valued?
    If you look at the S&P500 growth since the 1930s viewed as most charts show in linear scale then the rise since the 2008 crash recovery looks exaggerated, viewed logarithmically, which puts growth into a more reflective perspective of the compounding, the rise over decades has been quite steady and the last 10 years doesn't look abnormal.

    Also, most of the 500 companies in the S&P500 are not over valued, it's the top 6, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet & Amazon that could be considered over valued that skew the index. However, It would be hard to bet against Apple at the moment, I can see them hitting a $4 trillion market cap easily based on their performance. Apple make up over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. 

    As Warren Buffet says, regularly buying a low cost broad cross section of America, such as the S&P500, is all the common investor needs to do to become very wealthy over the long term. $10,000 invested in 1941 with dividends reinvested would be in excess of $51,000,000 now. America will be very successful and so will American businesses during this century, albeit in fits and starts.

    Donald Trump would have more money now by doing just that than pursuing his real estate career with the money his father gave him at the start of his career, with zero effort.

    "Buy VOO (Vanguard's S&P500 index fund) and chill" as many American say and do.

    S&P500 Linear:



    S&P500 Logarithmic:


    the logarithmic one looking straight - that basically means the underlying data is exponentially rising, does it not? 
    Can you find a precedent for the 2010-2022 rise?
    The unprecedented Feds monetary policy since the financial crash has driven this, it will be interesting to see how things look 20 years from now as they ease back support but I would wager that the US economy will continue to grow as will the S&P500. 

    In fact I do wager it, I am FTSE USA Index and chill.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    So since 2010, S&P has risen over 600% 
    And no one thinks it's already over-valued?
    If you look at the S&P500 growth since the 1930s viewed as most charts show in linear scale then the rise since the 2008 crash recovery looks exaggerated, viewed logarithmically, which puts growth into a more reflective perspective of the compounding, the rise over decades has been quite steady and the last 10 years doesn't look abnormal.

    Also, most of the 500 companies in the S&P500 are not over valued, it's the top 6, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet & Amazon that could be considered over valued that skew the index. However, It would be hard to bet against Apple at the moment, I can see them hitting a $4 trillion market cap easily based on their performance. Apple make up over 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. 

    As Warren Buffet says, regularly buying a low cost broad cross section of America, such as the S&P500, is all the common investor needs to do to become very wealthy over the long term. $10,000 invested in 1941 with dividends reinvested would be in excess of $51,000,000 now. America will be very successful and so will American businesses during this century, albeit in fits and starts.

    Donald Trump would have more money now by doing just that than pursuing his real estate career with the money his father gave him at the start of his career, with zero effort.

    "Buy VOO (Vanguard's S&P500 index fund) and chill" as many American say and do.

    S&P500 Linear:



    S&P500 Logarithmic:


    the logarithmic one looking straight - that basically means the underlying data is exponentially rising, does it not? 
    Can you find a precedent for the 2010-2022 rise?
    The unprecedented Feds monetary policy since the financial crash has driven this, it will be interesting to see how things look 20 years from now as they ease back support but I would wager that the US economy will continue to grow as will the S&P500. 

    In fact I do wager it, I am FTSE USA Index and chill.
    have you looked at the graphs for other G7 countries?
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  • have you looked at the graphs for other G7 countries?
    Not in detail but I looked briefly at the long term historical performance of the UK, Europe & Asia markets a few years ago.

    Why?


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