Third Wave

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Emp_FabEmp_Fab Frets: 20393
Prof Ravi Gupta of Cambridge University is saying the UK is showing early signs of a third wave.

Get your toilet rolls in!
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  • siremoonsiremoon Frets: 1125
    edited May 31
    Emp_Fab said:
    Prof Ravi Gupta of Cambridge University is saying the UK is showing early signs of a third wave.

    Get your toilet rolls in!

    On 4/9/2020 there were 1940 cases recorded.  Cases were rising.  Concerns were rising about a second wave.

    On 1/5/2021 there were 1907 cases recorded.  Cases were rising.  Concerns were rising about a third wave of a variant that was "up to 50% more contagious" according to "experts".

    Between 4/9/2020 and 28/9/2020 there were 124,795 cases recorded, 6,649 people admitted to hospital and 611 deaths.

    Between 1/5/2021 and 25/5/2021 there were 62,415 cases recorded, 2,676 people admitted to hospital and 186 deaths.

    As "experts" are never wrong then Covid must be losing interest in its work because this 50% more contagious variant is infecting people at half of the rate of earlier variants, causing 60% fewer to require hospital treatment and killing 70% fewer.  More of a ripple than a wave.
    “He is like a man with a fork in a world of soup.” - Noel Gallagher
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 17279
    @Siremoon remind me how many people were vaccinated in September 2020, and in May 2021?

    And perhaps you could shed light on why some are always so keen to jump on anything that comes from scientists with a "Well actually..." response? 
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  • skayskay Frets: 329

    With so many comparison web sites out there, how do I choose the best one?

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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 4729
    Media selectively quote scientist to promote their agenda despite the real life figures being below Sage’s best case predictions.
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  • Emp_FabEmp_Fab Frets: 20393
    skay said:
    Er....  but Prof Gupta IS a top scientist AND one of the govt's advisors!  @skay ;
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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1057
    I'm not sure why I should care? Most people have been vaccinated, which apparently means if I have it I'm unlikely to have any symptoms - so I'm ok.

    But I might pass it on to someone else though.... But they are also vaccinated, so they don't care either.

    But they might pass it on to someone unvaccinated (ie younger) - but they are unlikely to be seriously affected by it, or have actually had it already. So they don't care either.

    If that's not right, what was the point of vaccinating people if you still have to lock yourself in a cupboard whenever anyone say "new varient!".
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  • skayskay Frets: 329
    @Emp_Fab ; This wasn't directed personally at you, or anyone else in these numerous Covid-19 threads, it's just an amusing way to take a step back from the seriousness of these things...

    With so many comparison web sites out there, how do I choose the best one?

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  • monquixotemonquixote Frets: 13617

    If you have a look at the bottom of this page you will see the breakdown by age group.
    The infections are going up in groups that aren't yet vaccinated. That's why it's not resulting in lots more hospitalisations and deaths.

    My view is we should stick to the plan and trust the vaccine, but there are going to be some younger people that end up dead or long term sick as a result so it's a tough call.
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  • StevepageStevepage Frets: 1790
    Perhaps we should lockdown until no one gets ill again ever. Maybe even till every single person is immortal
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  • moremore Frets: 137
    Prof Gupta is saying, there is a small rise in the infection rate that might indicate a third wave.  He is proposing that the ending of restrictions should be delayed until the increase is fully understood. It is going to be a toss-up between health concerns or financial. 
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  • p90foolp90fool Frets: 22913
    more said:
    Prof Gupta is saying, there is a small rise in the infection rate that might indicate a third wave.  He is proposing that the ending of restrictions should be delayed until the increase is fully understood. It is going to be a toss-up between health concerns or financial. 
    Quite, but delaying opening up "for a few weeks" in our pitifully short summer season is a disaster for all the industries which have been hardest hit. 

    A delay from mid January to mid February is neither here nor there, but I think a lot of virologists have no idea of the significance of a delay from mid June to mid July. 

    Being ruled by experts sounds fine and dandy, but not when they're single issue fanatics. 
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  • MusicwolfMusicwolf Frets: 2198

    Listening to statements from ministers I get the feeling that we are being prepared for some slightly disappointing news on around 14th June ahead of the great unlocking on the 21st.  I doubt that we’ll see a backward step, i.e. more restrictions than we have today, but I am expecting that the next step may be less of a return to normal than people might have been lead to believe when the road map was first introduced.  We already know that we face travel restrictions either imposed by the uk or by the destination country.  It wouldn’t surprise me if there were still restrictions on numbers attending events although I am still expecting a relaxion from today’s numbers.

    There was always going to be a third wave whether it is caused by a new variant or by increased social interaction (unlocking).  If numbers don’t rise as we unlock then we’ve overdone it with restrictions.  The question is by how much / how fast?

    The key to unlocking is to get the vulnerable groups double jabbed.  Vaccine / delivery supply is still limited so the best way to use what we have, in order to save lives and not overwhelm the hospitals, is to double vaccinate the over 50s.   Unfortunately in some areas, and no surprise that these areas are where the virus is most prevalent, the percentage of the population who have received both jabs is relatively low.

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  • EricTheWearyEricTheWeary Frets: 12287
    There was a survey showing about half of people would support not further lifting restrictions on the 21st. The science seems to suggest being cautious ( increased spread amongst younger people - some of whom may well end up very sick/ dead even if the majority don’t - due to current lifting of restrictions and the Indian variant) as well. Obviously some restrictions on travel are being imposed on us by other countries ( although the likelihood of a vaccine passport was in the news yet again today). 
    It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if the changes due on the 21st were delayed a bit. I don’t think anyone is suggesting anything further than that. 
    Inhale away Jackson Jeffrey Jackson. 
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  • monquixotemonquixote Frets: 13617

    New things can't be peer reviewed?

    That's nonsense.
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  • Not on here they can't! :lol:

    Peers? Don't make me larf!
    My band: TACOMA NARROWS BRIDGE DISASTER
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  • GandalphGandalph Frets: 591
    So one ‘top scientist’, not quite sure where you got that from, probably because you read that he advises the government, but whatever, he offers his opinion on a BBC programme and the beeb make it a headline and run the story with bells on. 
    Meanwhile yesterday, and on several previous weeks thousands and thousands of people demonstrate against the handling of the pandemic and the restrictions we’ve been living under across various cities and we don’t hear a word about it? Very little anyway. Not only in this country but in several others too. 
    Is this not news! I thought the news was supposed to report on all things news worthy not just those stories that fit a particular agenda. 
    I must be naive. 
    The thing is word that these protests have taken place (whatever you may think of them) does reach people through other mediums. And slowly the penny starts to drop that a hell of a lot of the ‘news’ that is pushed through a hell
    of a lot of the mainstream media is extremely one sided to help push an agenda(s) on the masses. 
    I’m hopeful this is ultimately a good thing as more people realise that most of the mainstream media , the bbc being at the very top of this, is nowadays little more than an outlet for government propaganda.


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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 7798
    Musicwolf said:

    Listening to statements from ministers I get the feeling that we are being prepared for some slightly disappointing news on around 14th June ahead of the great unlocking on the 21st.  I doubt that we’ll see a backward step, i.e. more restrictions than we have today, but I am expecting that the next step may be less of a return to normal than people might have been lead to believe when the road map was first introduced.  We already know that we face travel restrictions either imposed by the uk or by the destination country.  It wouldn’t surprise me if there were still restrictions on numbers attending events although I am still expecting a relaxion from today’s numbers.

    There was always going to be a third wave whether it is caused by a new variant or by increased social interaction (unlocking).  If numbers don’t rise as we unlock then we’ve overdone it with restrictions.  The question is by how much / how fast?

    The key to unlocking is to get the vulnerable groups double jabbed.  Vaccine / delivery supply is still limited so the best way to use what we have, in order to save lives and not overwhelm the hospitals, is to double vaccinate the over 50s.   Unfortunately in some areas, and no surprise that these areas are where the virus is most prevalent, the percentage of the population who have received both jabs is relatively low.

    I'm 52 and I've had my second jab last week.

    One of my best friends is a year or two younger than me.  He's also had his second jab.

    Basically, we are there with the over 50s. There might a be few still to go, but they should be done in the next few dasy.

    Within a week or so, the only people over 50 who won't have had both jabs will be those who have chosen not to.  If they make that choice, then they have to live with the consequences.

    There isn't going to be a significant third wave.  There is too much immunity now.  They are talking about the R rate being between 1 and 1.1.  Even at the upper end of that range, it would take about 7 cycles of infection for the number of cases to double.  Given the incubation period, that's 5 weeks.  The official rate at the moment is 28.6 per 100k.  From that kind of number it would take 2 or 3 months for it to build up to anything that could be called a "wave", but well before that we will have vaccinated all adults who want a vaccine.
     
    All the time we give more vaccines, the more we reduce the spread.  Given the delay built into the R rate, it's quite possibly under 1 already.  The figures based on data that's two weeks or more old.  There will be a couple of million people who had their vaccine 3 or 4 weeks ago.  They will have a much higher level of  immunity now than they did two weeks ago, so that will reduce the R rate now.  There will be a few more who have gained immunity from having caught Covid as well. 

    In the last two weeks around 3 million people have had their first dose, and another 4.2 million have had their second dose, plus more people have caught it and gained immunity that way.  That will bring the R rate they report in two or three weeks time down further.  From where we are now, with an R rate that might be marginally above 1, it won't take much to bring it down under 1 again.
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  • TanninTannin Frets: 519
    edited May 31
    Saying "must watch" with an uninformative picture and zero further information is a guarantee that your more intelligent readers won't waste their time watching. If it mattered, it would be worth a summary, or at very least a teaser.
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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1057
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