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In this Discussion
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Price Increases and more to come
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Comments
The pace of the recovery is obviously different in different parts of the world. Places which recovered early from Covid (e.g., China) or which stayed largely Covid free (Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand) have long since resumed full production. Europe and the USA are a little further back on the curve, but with vaccination rates improving every week, it is perfectly reasonable to expect normal service to resume, and resume sooner rather than later.
Will prices go back to what they were in 2018? Of course they won't.
Will prices of most things improve from where they are today? Of course they will. You can back that in.
Of course, if you really, really want that instrument right now and don't mind paying overs for it, go right ahead. Life is short!
(But note well: the pandemic buying craze has alerted certain vendors to the fact that they can get away with charging way, way more than they used to. I'm talking examples like the Gibson Custom Shop - the insane price of the current Tom Petty "signature" SJ-200 is an example of just how crazy their accountants can get when we encourage them - the Martin Authentic series, and several of the American boutique manufacturers. These particular vendors reckon that people will pay through the nose for products with a particular name on them, and now that they have tasted blood in the water, they will never go back to merely unreasonable pricing. This is *NOT* evidence of overall price rises, it's simply a reorganisation of the market. Normal mainstream guitars that normal mainstream people buy will return to roughly the status quo ante fairly quickly. For every established maker that prices itself out of the market, there are ten would-be could-bes more than ready to step in and fill the gap.)
In general terms
For the last 50-odd years, all manufacturing has been in a race to the bottom - ie outsourcing and offshoring in search of the lowest cost base. Combine that with improvements in manufacturing efficiencies and I think (cba to look up the data) that we pay a lot less - in real terms - for many things today compared to 50 years ago. Yay us. We've never had it so good - and are unlikely to ever have it so good again.
That race to the bottom has - IMHO - more or less bottomed out. We're not going to find cheaper than China, for the scale of production that the world expects. Africa is the great untapped (unexploited) possibility, but that continent (warning: huge generalisation coming) doesn't the political stability or economic infrastructure to develop in the way that China did.
Yes, you'll get bits & pieces coming out of Indonesia or Vietnam or Scotland, or some other still-developing nation, but, by and large, China will be the world's cheapest factory option for the foreseeable.
I'd expect China to start to widen its profit margins, together with internal inflationary pressures, which means that the price of stuff is no longer going to be reducing. And what doesn't go down, generally goes up.
In guitar-specific terms
Demand is high due to more disposable income (not spent in pubs, on holidays, commuting), and more guitar-playing-time available (WFH) arising from the last 18 mths. And as the bedroom flippers hoover up the s/h market, why not buy new when it's only a small premium over s/h?
As well as the China-effect, the price of traditional guitar-making materials increases as regulation reduces supply, and the guitar-buyers refuse to accept substitutes for their traditional woods.
And, as has been said above, we "buy" less and less these days. Want it now and easy credit mean we look at the monthly payments rather than the purchase cost. Which means manufactures can raise prices, and its hidden to a lot of the buyers. Back when I were-a-lad, you only bought stuff on HP if (a) you couldn't afford it, and (b) you didn't realise that you'd pay twice as much for it. Great business for the financial services industry (and debt collectors), but not so good for the buyer (renter). Hey-ho.
Pandemic effect
12mths ago we were panicking (well, some people were) about the economy crashing, prices falling, jobs disappearing, and the next apocalypse. The rebound now is fairly strong. Comparing prices with 12mths ago (as the annual inflation rate does), is comparing against a fairly low point. If prices weren't rising now, you'd be wondering why.
There's also the supply/demand effect as industries switch themselves back on from lockdown and start to produce again. Until they're back to pre-pandemic levels, there will be shortages of stuff, and prices will rise. In 6-12 mths time, that factor will largely disappear again through the natural cycle. Which is why the BoE isn't raising interest rates quickly to suppress inflation.
TLDR version
Yup, stuff's getting more expensive. We've been through the good times, now we're heading back to the old reality.
Doing half a job and forget to age some parts.
This morning I ordered in Nickel baseplates ... from one of the few suppliers that has them (non UK of course) ... they cost me over twice what I would normally pay.
If you add this to the fact that in a normal month before Brexit about 20% of my orders were from the EU ... now I'm lucky if I get one EU order a month.
Still, we have happy fish and can tour Lichtenstein to our heart's content so that all worked out well didn't it?
Formerly TheGuitarWeasel ... Oil City Pickups ... Oil City Blog 7 String.org profile and message
Why you’d want a guitar that isn’t reliable is beyond me.
Of course there are pressures on wood supplies, but it's still a tiny percentage of the guitar's cost.
The cost of Custom Shop fairy stories though?
Priceless.
No other difficulties- I haven’t dipped into the rarified end of the market, staying between £2000 and £12000 mainly, but good vintage instrument (for me) is good to have, good to play and won’t shed money like a new guitar generally will. Of course, a well-bought modern used guitar shouldn’t shed money either, but the value of a vintage guitar tends to rise, if investment is your thing. It’s not mine because, well, GAS, but other people seem to make money.
I’m not a believer in ‘if it’s old, it must be great’, because I’ve played a fair few vintage guitars with a view to buying and not been impressed - the same with some reasonably high-priced new stuff as well - and some have been bought, not bonded with and moved on, just as with modern stuff, but there have been a couple of special ones, where it’s difficult to imagine a modern equivalent, primarily because there isn’t one! My limited experience has also told me that the reissues that I’ve played have generally felt nothing like the originals, whether that’s a good thing or not.
I also like new and used modern guitars equally, so no bias here. Each to their own of course.
Yay - go us!
Formerly TheGuitarWeasel ... Oil City Pickups ... Oil City Blog 7 String.org profile and message