Is there going to be a guitar glut?

Smellyfingers

Sorry if this question has already been explored.

But with lockdown my understanding is many people decided to take up the guitar - I mean why not finally find out if I've got the Keith Richards gene, and those sunburst gibsons on GG look so classic, and it's not real money anyway because I can pay in 2024.

So when some of these people drop out of the music marathon,does that mean that the market will be flooded?

DeeTee

Yes, probably. But it'll most likely be the lower end of the market that floods. Most learners aren't starting out on a real Strat, for example, although I have seen a few.

Not saying I haven't already set up some alerts though. 

thegummy

DeeTee said:

Yes, probably. But it'll most likely be the lower end of the market that floods. Most learners aren't starting out on a real Strat, for example, although I have seen a few.

Not saying I haven't already set up some alerts though! 

Pretty much exactly what I was going to reply

Most people start out with a guitar established players wouldn't touch.

Maybe enough rich people went for something extravagant to have some kind of effect on the second hand prices.

DeeTee

thegummy said:

DeeTee said:

Yes, probably. But it'll most likely be the lower end of the market that floods. Most learners aren't starting out on a real Strat, for example, although I have seen a few.

Not saying I haven't already set up some alerts though! 

Pretty much exactly what I was going to reply

Most people start out with a guitar established players wouldn't touch.

Maybe enough rich people went for something extravagant to have some kind of effect on the second hand prices.

I have seen a few people start on Fender Player guitars though, so I might have to save my pocket money for one of those coming up! 

thegummy

DeeTee said:

I have seen a few people start on Fender Player guitars though, so I might have to save my pocket money for one of those coming up! 

That's actually a good shout - quite possibly plenty of people well off enough for that to be budget enough for a punt on a new hobby.

Maybe I'll finally get my second Precision I've been pondering for years. Although I'd probably guess that the ratio of lockdowners taking up bass compared to guitar has been tiny.

DeeTee

@thegummy - A friend of mine took up bass. I know because I had to buy the thing for him. I knew how it would turn out, so I bought the cheapest serviceable used bass nearby and gave it a proper set up. It'll probably end up in my house anyway. 

thegummy

DeeTee said:

@thegummy - A friend of mine took up bass. I know because I had to buy the thing for him. I knew how it would turn out, so I bought the cheapest serviceable used bass nearby and gave it a proper set up. It'll probably end up in my house anyway. 

Which one did you go for and how was it after you did it up?

DeeTee

thegummy said:

DeeTee said:

@thegummy - A friend of mine took up bass. I know because I had to buy the thing for him. I knew how it would turn out, so I bought the cheapest serviceable used bass nearby and gave it a proper set up. It'll probably end up in my house anyway. 

Which one did you go for and how was it after you did it up?

Just a cheap Washburn that someone was selling locally. It was fine, I guess. 

thegummy

DeeTee said:

Just a cheap Washburn that someone was selling locally. It was fine, I guess. 

He's lucky he's got a mate to set it up for him.

There's always a balance for people trying out guitar playing - don't want to spend too much in case they don't stick to it but if they skimp too much the quality of it can make it horrible to play so they're less likely to stick to it.

With bass being such an ensemble instrument where you really have to play with a band (unlike guitar which is a lot more suited to solo playing) I wonder if that's more likely to make people give up because playing alone is less fun than guitar or more likely to make them stick to it cause if they do get a band then that has all its benefits.

Musicwolf

In my experience people tend to hang on to these sorts of purchases for quite a while after they've given up.  Whether that's because they don't want to admit defeat or because there isn't a defined point at which you quit (you just keep going another day without playing).  I've sold a couple of guitars to colleagues who haven't persevered with playing but who won't sell - 'cos one day they're going to learn.

Your best chance for picking up stuff is this winter when the fuel bills go up and the price of a bottle of sparkling water is equal to the value of a MIM Strat.

steer

There is never a shortage of secondhand Squier guitars, and I dont see that changing.

thegummy

Musicwolf said:

In my experience people tend to hang on to these sorts of purchases for quite a while after they've given up.  Whether that's because they don't want to admit defeat or because there isn't a defined point at which you quit (you just keep going another day without playing).  I've sold a couple of guitars to colleagues who haven't persevered with playing but who won't sell - 'cos one day they're going to learn.

That's such a great point.

In addition to the reasons you gave, a lot of people just like having a guitar on display in their house, even if they'll never play it, cause it looks cool.

stickyfiddle

Musicwolf said:

In my experience people tend to hang on to these sorts of purchases for quite a while after they've given up.  Whether that's because they don't want to admit defeat or because there isn't a defined point at which you quit (you just keep going another day without playing).  I've sold a couple of guitars to colleagues who haven't persevered with playing but who won't sell - 'cos one day they're going to learn.

Your best chance for picking up stuff is this winter when the fuel bills go up and the price of a bottle of sparkling water is equal to the value of a MIM Strat.

Yep. I've visited tonnes of people with an old scabby Yamaha acoustic collecting dust in the corner, often with one string missing - friends, family, Airbnbs, etc.  My favourite was an overnight tour in Iceland - quite nice to be able to have a quick noodle over a glass of wine while on holiday

ToneControl

some well-off people will buy a pro-level instrument to learn on
definitely not typical for beginners though

ToneControl

stickyfiddle said:

Musicwolf said:

In my experience people tend to hang on to these sorts of purchases for quite a while after they've given up.  Whether that's because they don't want to admit defeat or because there isn't a defined point at which you quit (you just keep going another day without playing).  I've sold a couple of guitars to colleagues who haven't persevered with playing but who won't sell - 'cos one day they're going to learn.

Your best chance for picking up stuff is this winter when the fuel bills go up and the price of a bottle of sparkling water is equal to the value of a MIM Strat.

Yep. I've visited tonnes of people with an old scabby Yamaha acoustic collecting dust in the corner, often with one string missing - friends, family, Airbnbs, etc.  My favourite was an overnight tour in Iceland - quite nice to be able to have a quick noodle over a glass of wine while on holiday

yeah I've seen a few, probably worth us all carrying spare string sets and basic tools to administer TLC to these where possible

Lewy

ToneControl said:

stickyfiddle said:

Musicwolf said:

In my experience people tend to hang on to these sorts of purchases for quite a while after they've given up.  Whether that's because they don't want to admit defeat or because there isn't a defined point at which you quit (you just keep going another day without playing).  I've sold a couple of guitars to colleagues who haven't persevered with playing but who won't sell - 'cos one day they're going to learn.

Your best chance for picking up stuff is this winter when the fuel bills go up and the price of a bottle of sparkling water is equal to the value of a MIM Strat.

Yep. I've visited tonnes of people with an old scabby Yamaha acoustic collecting dust in the corner, often with one string missing - friends, family, Airbnbs, etc.  My favourite was an overnight tour in Iceland - quite nice to be able to have a quick noodle over a glass of wine while on holiday

yeah I've seen a few, probably worth us all carrying spare string sets and basic tools to administer TLC to these where possible

Given that the average AirBnB wants you do everything short of fully redecorating the place before departure, I'm f*cked if I'm going to re-string their guitar for them as well

prowla

My general recommendation is for folks to buy a good quality used instrument; that way they'll likely sell it without making a loss if/when the time comes around.

Voxman

prowla said:

My general recommendation is for folks to buy a good quality used instrument; that way they'll likely sell it without making a loss if/when the time comes around.

This. 

ToneControl

Lewy said:

ToneControl said:

stickyfiddle said:

Musicwolf said:

In my experience people tend to hang on to these sorts of purchases for quite a while after they've given up.  Whether that's because they don't want to admit defeat or because there isn't a defined point at which you quit (you just keep going another day without playing).  I've sold a couple of guitars to colleagues who haven't persevered with playing but who won't sell - 'cos one day they're going to learn.

Your best chance for picking up stuff is this winter when the fuel bills go up and the price of a bottle of sparkling water is equal to the value of a MIM Strat.

Yep. I've visited tonnes of people with an old scabby Yamaha acoustic collecting dust in the corner, often with one string missing - friends, family, Airbnbs, etc.  My favourite was an overnight tour in Iceland - quite nice to be able to have a quick noodle over a glass of wine while on holiday

yeah I've seen a few, probably worth us all carrying spare string sets and basic tools to administer TLC to these where possible

Given that the average AirBnB wants you do everything short of fully redecorating the place before departure, I'm f*cked if I'm going to re-string their guitar for them as well

I'm thinking more of visiting friends who don't play

VimFuego

prowla said:

My general recommendation is for folks to buy a good quality used instrument; that way they'll likely sell it without making a loss if/when the time comes around.

a while ago I got in to playing sax, and I watched a few videos by a chap call Dan Forshaw. He advocates just that, buying a good used instrument even if you're a beginner. 

Bigsby

Smellyfingers said:

So when some of these people drop out of the music marathon,does that mean that the market will be flooded?

As others have said, I suspect many people who give up won't be quick to sell, so it'll be more like a slow trickle than a flood. But also what about the people who don't give up? Maybe we just got a whole new bunch of GAS filled guitarists, soaking up anything on the used market...