US Election Exit Poll Survey

Gassage

This makes incredible reading, whatever the result.

It makes no sense whatsoever.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

quarky

Bizarre.

The poor strongly favoured Clinton.
If you are college graduate, you are more likely to vote Clinton.

Yet, if you are rich you are more likely to have voted Trump.
If you have high school or some college, you are more likely to have voted Trump.

ICBM

There's a lot in it, but it makes a lot of sense, even if some of it is apparently a bit self-contradictory.

eSully

Trumps 29% share of the Latino and Asian votes is the most surprising for me. I would have expected that to be a lot lower.

Chalky

People are multi-dimensional. You can't reduce them down to "You have this arbitrary attribute so you should vote X"!  That is what has caused the problem - politicians, pundits and pollsters thinking people are predictable.

ChrisMusic

Consider my flabber to be truly gasted     :-O

english_bob

Surprised/not surprised by the turnout among Christians for Trump. US Evangelicals get very silly about the abortion debate so kind of unsurprised that they'd go Trump considering his pro-life platform, but you'd think if you were that into Jesus you'd want someone who wasn't quite so opposite to everything he says you ought to be. 

fretmeister

english_bob said:

Surprised/not surprised by the turnout among Christians for Trump. US Evangelicals get very silly about the abortion debate so kind of unsurprised that they'd go Trump considering his pro-life platform, but you'd think if you were that into Jesus you'd want someone who wasn't quite so opposite to everything he says you ought to be. 

Well, you have to remember that many american evangelicals think Jesus was as white as they are.

strtdv

I think the most telling statistic in there is the number of people who had an unfavourable opinion of both candidates but voted Trump. That's where his victory came from.

People who usually vote Democrat will continue to do so, and people who usually vote Republican will continue to do so. Where Trump won is in the people who would usually consider "none of the above" the best option, and who therefore don't usually vote. It's not that people love Trump, they just really hate Clinton, and made a vote for change, regardless of what that change is.

It's pretty much Brexit Mk II.

There's a lot of anger among working class people against privileged career politicians who can "afford" to be liberal. I think that's true in the UK as well as the USA. Their anger may be somewhat misdirected, and I think Trump has manipulated some of them (in much the same way Farage did), but it should be a wake-up call.

Sanders would have won I reckon. He was just conservative enough, and he wasn't a Clinton.

fretmeister

I wonder if Clinton would have won if Bernie had been the VP pick.

stimpsonslostson

english_bob said:

Surprised/not surprised by the turnout among Christians for Trump. US Evangelicals get very silly about the abortion debate so kind of unsurprised that they'd go Trump considering his pro-life platform, but you'd think if you were that into Jesus you'd want someone who wasn't quite so opposite to everything he says you ought to be. 

There's some truth to this, I know quite a few folk who meet this description and their facebook streams have been FULL of comments about the pro-life v pro-choice debate.
I can't say that any of the Republicans I know were ever delighted to have Trump, but they are delighted NOT to have Clinton. You can't help think that virtually any other Democrat might have walked this one.

english_bob

fretmeister said:

english_bob said:

Surprised/not surprised by the turnout among Christians for Trump. US Evangelicals get very silly about the abortion debate so kind of unsurprised that they'd go Trump considering his pro-life platform, but you'd think if you were that into Jesus you'd want someone who wasn't quite so opposite to everything he says you ought to be. 

Well, you have to remember that many american evangelicals think Jesus was as white as they are.

I doubt that Jesus was quite like any modern branch of Christianity thinks he is. My point is that to listen to US evangelicals bang on, you'd think his entire earthly mission was to ban abortion. And gays. 

fretmeister

english_bob said:

fretmeister said:

english_bob said:

Surprised/not surprised by the turnout among Christians for Trump. US Evangelicals get very silly about the abortion debate so kind of unsurprised that they'd go Trump considering his pro-life platform, but you'd think if you were that into Jesus you'd want someone who wasn't quite so opposite to everything he says you ought to be. 

Well, you have to remember that many american evangelicals think Jesus was as white as they are.

I doubt that Jesus was quite like any modern branch of Christianity thinks he is. My point is that to listen to US evangelicals bang on, you'd think his entire earthly mission was to ban abortion. And gays. 

I reckon the average deep souther would lynch him for curing people for free.

viz

It shows that the Clinton voters tended to be lower earners. But the people who thought the economy was in trouble tended to vote for Trump.

Yet the reality is that the American economy is in fact pretty strong and getting stronger. 

Seems as though the combination of Clinton's wealth distribution and generation through higher rate taxes and ground roots investment, coupled with Trump's message on bad trade deals and gloomy economic outlook did the trick for her. 

Sambostar

Exit polls are reliably unreliable.  What especially annoys me more than a little bit is youngsters in the UK quoting the war and thatcher, saying they know better than people 60 plus years their senior, when they never even lived through it or the decades of rationing after it.

p90fool

Sambostar said:

Exit polls are reliably unreliable.  What especially annoys me more than a little bit is youngsters in the UK quoting the war and thatcher, saying they know better than people 60 plus years their senior, when they never even lived through it or the decades of rationing after it.

Sometimes the perspective of history can help though. I once had an argument with a woman who said she saw Jimi Hendrix at the Isle of Wight festival in 1971, almost a year after his death.
"Yes it must have been '71, it was the year my sister went to uni and our dog died, how would you know, I was THERE!"

Sambostar

Emp_Fab

Gassage said:

This makes incredible reading, whatever the result.

It makes no sense whatsoever.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

@Gassage I don't get why you think it makes no sense.  It seems pretty clear from my perspective.  What is the issue you see with the results ?

Chalky

Emp_Fab said:

Gassage said:

This makes incredible reading, whatever the result.

It makes no sense whatsoever.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

@Gassage I don't get why you think it makes no sense.  It seems pretty clear from my perspective.  What is the issue you see with the results ?

What makes no sense is to compare people's voting decisions to their socio-economic attributes. You may as well compare it to their choice in socks or breakfast cereal or inside leg measurement.

Gassage

Chalky said:

Emp_Fab said:

Gassage said:

This makes incredible reading, whatever the result.

It makes no sense whatsoever.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

@Gassage I don't get why you think it makes no sense.  It seems pretty clear from my perspective.  What is the issue you see with the results ?

What makes no sense is to compare people's voting decisions to their socio-economic attributes. You may as well compare it to their choice in socks or breakfast cereal or inside leg measurement.

Exactly this.

Axe_meister

The problem for the average worker is that with more and more automation (and off shoring) the number of jobs is decreasing (or wages are going down).
If you think of the IQ bell curve, there was a time when there were jobs that could appeal to the majority people however has time is going on the entrance criteria is moving to the right.
Thus there is a lot of resentment of the educated and liberal middle classes, who were once trusted to work on behalf of The masses. Now they see the same educated middle class keeping their jobs whilst they are thrown on the junk heap. This is happening the world over hence the rise of the far right.