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I think classic collectable items are split into 3 distinctive groups:
These Ltd edition Fender Amps with frankly baffling prices will be collectable in the future because that's what they are designed for - collecters. Is anyone going to buy one of these amps made from a whiskey cask because of it's superior tone for live work or recording - of course not. It's going to sit at home on display as a collectable that from time to time will be used to play with.
The hello kitty strat baffles me - as far as I can tell it's nothing special yet because of it having this cool collectors mystique about it they go for frankly crazy money.
Amp wise I'm predicting a Fender Vaporizer
Pedal Wise - Digitech Bad Monkey
Guitar Wise - Fender Lite Ash Stratocaster
PRS Private Stock is a classic example of this.
1. 1950's Fender Strats - cheap as chips back in the day, now £20k for the right one
2. 1959 Les Pauls - sold so poorly they barely made 600, now worth circa £half a million
3. Gibson diamond-encrusted SG called the 'Eden of Coronet' - one-off worth over $2m
I could add a 4th Category:
4. Stuff that was made in very limited numbers, to a very limited clientele, to a very secret recipe, where you're talking Klon Centaur at one end (£500?), and a Dumble (£50,000?) at the other.
Rare, on its own, does not always or often mean desirable or collectible
Collectible can change - if the new or next guitar hero came along and for instance and played an 80's Kramer Floyd Rose, or an Ovation Viper, then demand would instantly pick up - Look what happened with Mossrite and The Ramones or Jack White and Airline Guitars, or Kurt Cobain and all the off shoots of Jaguars/Mustangs etc and go back in time with Clapton and The Beano LP - Recently we've see the value of The Starcaster seriously increase in value, certainly compared to the prices and demand from 20 and 30 years ago
Is the question also based around, what is for sale today at say 1K and will be worth 2K in 5 or 10 years time
Is the question also based around what is the next pre CBS Strat or 50's/60's 335 - I'm not sure there will be a good example to cover this option
Also let's assume no massive down turn in the economy, so now allow for a gradual increase in inflation over a 10/20 year period - In that case, many new classic guitars that are for sale today for say 2K, will rise in price to a new price of 3K, as many examples have done in the last 10-30 years, regarding classic models - on that basis, as new guitars increase in price then so will used prices - as such a used Gibson R8 today will sell for more than its current vale in 10/20 years time - this is based on a fairly level economic climate, yet who the hell knows where that is going - Maybe the restrictive or negative impact on this would be to many R8's out there and a declining list of guitar players to sell to
Again, future CITES changes might have a monstrous impact on what woods that new guitars can be built from - As such in 5 or 10 years time you may only be able to buy a used Gibson/Fender/PRS/Martin etc etc with a rosewood board, as new guitars may have to find a new option/material
I think the original PRS Modern Eagle and indeed the original 513, both with Brazilian Rosewood necks, are 2 classic examples of guitars that I expected to rise in value yet have barely budged in their used value over the last 5 years - take into account they are awesome guitars regarding build quality - sold well when new - you can't buy the same spec'd guitar today - All the ingredients and pedigree is there, but no additional hype as raised prices yet
There are also an awful lot of PRS limited runs over the years. I don't think they are as rare or exclusive as some might think.
I had a 1990 Limited Edition for a while that was part of a run of 300. Before that there was the Signature of which I think there were about 1000. If memory serves correctly, there were 4 Artist Series and there was a run of 250 BRW neck McCartys before you get to the first runs of Modern Eagles and 513s. I've kind of lost interest in PRS over the last 10 years or so, I'm not so sure what they have had recently, but I think I remember the Paul's Guitar being advertised, and I am sure there are other limited runs as well. There are also thousands of Private Stock guitars out there now as well. I just found #6379 on World Guitars website.
If you add 6000 plus Private Stock to all the other limited runs there are probably 10,000 of these premium PRS out there.
Regarding Gubble's point 2, there are plenty of examples from the past: Switch vibracell guitars, most First Act guitars, the Squier 51, Dean Baby series, even some Harley Benton guitars sell for more used on Ebay than they cost originally. Hello Kitty sits well within this by being of limited availability (so not many people will have realised they play like any other starter guitar) and looking different.
I don't think there will ever be an equivalent to 70s Matsumoku guitars, but you never know. The effect of time passing makes people do stupid things - I was going to say that no-one should ever pay more than £25 for a used Bad Monkey (I bought one new at £25 and another used at £20, never really got on with them) but then I remember the fuss over the MkI Dano Transparent Overdrive that was meant to be a Timmy.
http://tertl.blogspot.com - personal blog
certain Guitars have performed well like Jimmy Page LP's - various models I know - but the question is/was about finding the next trend - And those Brz Custom Shop Strats and Teles from around 2012 are doing okay as and when they are re-sold
Obviously some things will still be very rare/collectable/expensive but I think a lot of what was previously seen as a "good investment" will be found to be anything but in the long term.
The CITES thing means that rich far eastern collectors will not legally be able to prop up the markets in the US and Europe for anything with Brazilian Rosewood.
Also, Gibson and Fender Custom Shops (or what became the Custom shops) started making good stuff again from the 90s onwards. I'd rather have a 25 year old CS guitar than what they were churning out in the late 60's or 70's.
also around 1954 the average UK wage was under £10 a week, so such a Strat would cost around 14/15 weeks to buy - Today the ave weekly wage (according to one source) is around £540 per week - so on that basis less than 5 weeks wages to buy such a guitar
From Fender's own website (http://www2.fender.com/experience/guitarchive/the-stratocaster-in-the-1950s/), a non-trem strat was $229.50 in 1954. Using http://www.dollartimes.com/, I know this had the same buying power as $2,018 in 2016. This is very approx = £1,600 in 2016 money. So yes, you are correct. Not so cheap, I admit.
However, I then went on to compare against average earnings: Average annual income in USA in 1954 = $3,155.64. A strat then would have cost approx 7.27% of annual income.
Today's (well 2015) average household (sorry, haven't found individual) income was approx $54,000 (varies depending on source). Therefore a guitar would equal approx 3.73% of annual household income. Interestingly USA salaries have increased considerably more than inflation, where $3,155.64 in 1954 is equivalent to $27,746.76 in 2016.
So I take it back. Strats were NOT cheap as chips back in the 1950's. Apologies for misleading you all.
http://www.rockexplorer.com/reference/ElecGuitar/Fender/images/IronMaiden.jpg
Fender USA Highway One Showmaster
http://media.musiciansfriend.com/is/image/MMGS7/U.S.-Special-Highway-One-Showmaster-HSS-Floyd-Rose-Pewter/511257000847000-00-500x500.jpg
Fender USA Strat Plus
http://chasingguitars.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SPD1.jpg
Fender USA / Japan Richie Sambora strat (any variation except the Mexican one)
http://socalmusicexchange.com/les_pauls_richie_sambora_stratocaster.jpg
http://i1248.photobucket.com/albums/hh494/johnierian/10708657_822171441156677_6887952927711700499_o_zps3fd9f607.jpg
http://www.richiesamborastrat.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/richie-sambora-paisley-strat.jpg
Fender USA FN serial (rare export models).. so rare that I can't find an online picture. The Floyd Rose FN strat is more common, but the vintage tremolo FN strat is rare
Fender Korea "Squier Series" with the big fender decal instead of a big Squier decal.. these were the equivalent of the Mexican "Squier Series" but even rarer
http://www.tdpri.com/attachments/image-1681246804-jpg.183651/
Fender Japan "The Ventures" series
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_xWjoeLNcmQo/S9nhIXWfofI/AAAAAAAAE1E/Tei2fxePyjQ/s1600/MIJ+ventures+strat.jpg
Fender Japan Hellecaster
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BFa9NTqSG3Y/UUZ9p_cslXI/AAAAAAAAGoE/cIqBcpbgvbg/s1600/Fender+Hellecaster+Guitarz+by+Bertram.jpg
Fender Japan custom shop (any variation, including extrad ones)
http://xhefriguitars.com/EXTRAD/extrad logo.jpg
http://www.ysw-tct.com/tele/fenderjcehead.jpg
Fender USA (but finished in Mexico) California series
http://basschat.co.uk/uploads/monthly_12_2009/post-5359-1261594475.jpg
http://tertl.blogspot.com - personal blog