Commons select committee: Brexiteer MPs admit plan to shut down the UK car industry

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His answer Rory Stewart in the commons select committee is quite clear. Under a hard Brexit, he says the UK car industry would be wound down in the same way as the coal and steel industries.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 5824
    edited January 17
    MPs' plan? Which MPs? Stewart is a remainer.
     
    Minford is a Professor of economics, explaining consequences of changing protections and tariffs


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  • Modulus_AmpsModulus_Amps Frets: 1079
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    or.. it could be sustained with more sourcing from within the UK, supporting more UK jobs and supply chains. it all depends on what happens and what policies are put in place.
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  • mellowsunmellowsun Frets: 2413
    MPs' plan? Which MPs? Stewart is a remainer.
     
    Minford is a Professor of economics, explaining consequences of changing protections and tariffs


    I know. But Minford is an advisor to Mogg and the ERG group of MPs who want to implement a hard Brexit
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 20418
    Oh please. A video from 2012 ....

    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    Frexited
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  • munckeemunckee Frets: 3876
    edited January 18
    Official -  brexiteers eat babies...
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  • sixstringsuppliessixstringsupplies Frets: 156
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    Fretwired said:


    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    I used to work in the automotive industry (selling tiny little welding caps that go on the welding robots in car factories) such as Nissan, Toyota, BMW and multiple Tier One Automotive suppliers.

    Some official stats from the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

    in 2017:

     - 1.67m cars produced in the UK (second biggest output since turn of the century)
     - 1.33m (8 out of 10) were exported out of the UK and half of all that is exported is exported to the EU
     - £82 billion automotive turnover 
     - 2.5m new cars registered (meaning 2.2m of all new vehicle registrations were imported.
     - exported products worth £44billion equalling 12.8% of the UKs total export goods

    so not many UK produced cars are actually sold in the UK. 

    They will never shut the industry down, it contributes too much to the economy. 

    BMW only manufacture one model in The UK (MINI) everything else BMW is made in Germany and imported. They certainly won’t increase production if a no deal brexit happens. If a deal happens, then they will look to produce other models in the UK. But this all depends on a deal and zero tariffs/frictionless trade for the automotive industry. 

    These figures are from 2017, the 2018 report is yet to be published.

    I could go on all day - here is the link. Very interesting reading.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf
    Our YouTube Channel for handy "How-To" Wiring Tutorials
    Wiring Kits, Prewired harnesses and quality electronic components: https://www.sixstringsupplies.co.uk/
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 20418
    Fretwired said:


    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    I used to work in the automotive industry (selling tiny little welding caps that go on the welding robots in car factories) such as Nissan, Toyota, BMW and multiple Tier One Automotive suppliers.

    Some official stats from the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

    in 2017:

     - 1.67m cars produced in the UK (second biggest output since turn of the century)
     - 1.33m (8 out of 10) were exported out of the UK and half of all that is exported is exported to the EU
     - £82 billion automotive turnover 
     - 2.5m new cars registered (meaning 2.2m of all new vehicle registrations were imported.
     - exported products worth £44billion equalling 12.8% of the UKs total export goods

    so not many UK produced cars are actually sold in the UK. 

    They will never shut the industry down, it contributes too much to the economy. 

    BMW only manufacture one model in The UK (MINI) everything else BMW is made in Germany and imported. They certainly won’t increase production if a no deal brexit happens. If a deal happens, then they will look to produce other models in the UK. But this all depends on a deal and zero tariffs/frictionless trade for the automotive industry. 

    These figures are from 2017, the 2018 report is yet to be published.

    I could go on all day - here is the link. Very interesting reading.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf
    BMW also make engines for the 1, 2 and 3 series cars plus other components in the UK.

    If tariffs are applied to cars then UK buying habits will change. People will buy more UK made cars as they will be cheaper. BMW sell more 3 series cars in the UK than anywhere else in Europe. Given the value of sales it would be cost-effective to create a production facility in the UK. The German car industry calls the UK a cash cow. They are not going to give it up.

    Mercedes have also looked at building a actor here but put the plan on hold when their profits were hit by a fall in diesel sales around Europe.

    Do you have a link for UK exports to the EU? My business group asked a direct question on EU car exports fro the UK of the relevant government department which stated in couldn't answer exactly due to the Rotterdam effect which masks all UK/EU exports.
    Frexited
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  • sixstringsuppliessixstringsupplies Frets: 156
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    Fretwired said:
    Fretwired said:


    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    I used to work in the automotive industry (selling tiny little welding caps that go on the welding robots in car factories) such as Nissan, Toyota, BMW and multiple Tier One Automotive suppliers.

    Some official stats from the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

    in 2017:

     - 1.67m cars produced in the UK (second biggest output since turn of the century)
     - 1.33m (8 out of 10) were exported out of the UK and half of all that is exported is exported to the EU
     - £82 billion automotive turnover 
     - 2.5m new cars registered (meaning 2.2m of all new vehicle registrations were imported.
     - exported products worth £44billion equalling 12.8% of the UKs total export goods

    so not many UK produced cars are actually sold in the UK. 

    They will never shut the industry down, it contributes too much to the economy. 

    BMW only manufacture one model in The UK (MINI) everything else BMW is made in Germany and imported. They certainly won’t increase production if a no deal brexit happens. If a deal happens, then they will look to produce other models in the UK. But this all depends on a deal and zero tariffs/frictionless trade for the automotive industry. 

    These figures are from 2017, the 2018 report is yet to be published.

    I could go on all day - here is the link. Very interesting reading.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf
    BMW also make engines for the 1, 2 and 3 series cars plus other components in the UK.

    If tariffs are applied to cars then UK buying habits will change. People will buy more UK made cars as they will be cheaper. BMW sell more 3 series cars in the UK than anywhere else in Europe. Given the value of sales it would be cost-effective to create a production facility in the UK. The German car industry calls the UK a cash cow. They are not going to give it up.

    Mercedes have also looked at building a actor here but put the plan on hold when their profits were hit by a fall in diesel sales around Europe.

    Do you have a link for UK exports to the EU? My business group asked a direct question on EU car exports fro the UK of the relevant government department which stated in couldn't answer exactly due to the Rotterdam effect which masks all UK/EU exports.
    Hi - its on page 16/17 of that link above. It just states 53.9% of assembled car exports head to the EU.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf

    I've been out of the industry for a couple of years (actually since I started Six String Supplies in 2016) so I'm not too up to date with the industry as much - except what I get form the annual SMMT reports, which are generally very reliable and accurate.

    Apologies - didn't consider engines - the UK makes a shedload.
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  • exocetexocet Frets: 769
    Fretwired said:


    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    I used to work in the automotive industry (selling tiny little welding caps that go on the welding robots in car factories) such as Nissan, Toyota, BMW and multiple Tier One Automotive suppliers.

    Some official stats from the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

    in 2017:

     - 1.67m cars produced in the UK (second biggest output since turn of the century)
     - 1.33m (8 out of 10) were exported out of the UK and half of all that is exported is exported to the EU
     - £82 billion automotive turnover 
     - 2.5m new cars registered (meaning 2.2m of all new vehicle registrations were imported.
     - exported products worth £44billion equalling 12.8% of the UKs total export goods

    so not many UK produced cars are actually sold in the UK. 

    They will never shut the industry down, it contributes too much to the economy. 

    BMW only manufacture one model in The UK (MINI) everything else BMW is made in Germany and imported. They certainly won’t increase production if a no deal brexit happens. If a deal happens, then they will look to produce other models in the UK. But this all depends on a deal and zero tariffs/frictionless trade for the automotive industry. 

    These figures are from 2017, the 2018 report is yet to be published.

    I could go on all day - here is the link. Very interesting reading.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf
    The MINI interiors (seating, dashboard, interior trims) are manufactured by a French company (Faurecia / SAI automotive) in Lichfield - I visited that site about 2 years ago. The staff were 90% Polish from what I recall so a disorderly / unfriendly Brexit will certainly cause issues in the U.K Auto Sector because the supply chains are so intertwined.
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  • munckeemunckee Frets: 3876
    exocet said:
    Fretwired said:


    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    I used to work in the automotive industry (selling tiny little welding caps that go on the welding robots in car factories) such as Nissan, Toyota, BMW and multiple Tier One Automotive suppliers.

    Some official stats from the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

    in 2017:

     - 1.67m cars produced in the UK (second biggest output since turn of the century)
     - 1.33m (8 out of 10) were exported out of the UK and half of all that is exported is exported to the EU
     - £82 billion automotive turnover 
     - 2.5m new cars registered (meaning 2.2m of all new vehicle registrations were imported.
     - exported products worth £44billion equalling 12.8% of the UKs total export goods

    so not many UK produced cars are actually sold in the UK. 

    They will never shut the industry down, it contributes too much to the economy. 

    BMW only manufacture one model in The UK (MINI) everything else BMW is made in Germany and imported. They certainly won’t increase production if a no deal brexit happens. If a deal happens, then they will look to produce other models in the UK. But this all depends on a deal and zero tariffs/frictionless trade for the automotive industry. 

    These figures are from 2017, the 2018 report is yet to be published.

    I could go on all day - here is the link. Very interesting reading.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf
    The MINI interiors (seating, dashboard, interior trims) are manufactured by a French company (Faurecia / SAI automotive) in Lichfield - I visited that site about 2 years ago. The staff were 90% Polish from what I recall so a disorderly / unfriendly Brexit will certainly cause issues in the U.K Auto Sector because the supply chains are so intertwined.
    A lot of mini interior plastics are supplied by a UK company based in Sunderland, but made in China by their parent company, same for nissan, ford and loads of supposed EU made cars, peugeot, lamborghini, renault, GM derivatives.
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  • exocetexocet Frets: 769
    edited January 18
    munckee said:
    exocet said:
    Fretwired said:


    As I've said before (I always get facepalmed) BMW will increase it's manufacturing base in the UK. Do you know hoe many cars are sold in the UK every year?

    It's utter bollocks.
    I used to work in the automotive industry (selling tiny little welding caps that go on the welding robots in car factories) such as Nissan, Toyota, BMW and multiple Tier One Automotive suppliers.

    Some official stats from the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

    in 2017:

     - 1.67m cars produced in the UK (second biggest output since turn of the century)
     - 1.33m (8 out of 10) were exported out of the UK and half of all that is exported is exported to the EU
     - £82 billion automotive turnover 
     - 2.5m new cars registered (meaning 2.2m of all new vehicle registrations were imported.
     - exported products worth £44billion equalling 12.8% of the UKs total export goods

    so not many UK produced cars are actually sold in the UK. 

    They will never shut the industry down, it contributes too much to the economy. 

    BMW only manufacture one model in The UK (MINI) everything else BMW is made in Germany and imported. They certainly won’t increase production if a no deal brexit happens. If a deal happens, then they will look to produce other models in the UK. But this all depends on a deal and zero tariffs/frictionless trade for the automotive industry. 

    These figures are from 2017, the 2018 report is yet to be published.

    I could go on all day - here is the link. Very interesting reading.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Motor-Industry-Facts-June-2018.pdf
    The MINI interiors (seating, dashboard, interior trims) are manufactured by a French company (Faurecia / SAI automotive) in Lichfield - I visited that site about 2 years ago. The staff were 90% Polish from what I recall so a disorderly / unfriendly Brexit will certainly cause issues in the U.K Auto Sector because the supply chains are so intertwined.
    A lot of mini interior plastics are supplied by a UK company based in Sunderland, but made in China by their parent company, same for nissan, ford and loads of supposed EU made cars, peugeot, lamborghini, renault, GM derivatives.
    My guess is that it is the same company (SAI / Faurecia) they have a site in Washington. They do stuff for JLR / Ford / Peugeot etc etc The MINI stuff was definitely manufactured in Lichfield...at least I saw them stitching leather to make seats, loading them on to a lorry which departed every 2 hours to make the journey to Cowley.
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  • munckeemunckee Frets: 3876
    @exocet this company is different, a client of mine.  99% of their output is manufactured in china and hong kong.
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  • exocetexocet Frets: 769
    munckee said:
    @exocet this company is different, a client of mine.  99% of their output is manufactured in china and hong kong.
    I'm not doubting you :)

    This is the company that I was referring to....or at least the "Parent" organisation. I dare say their plastics come in from the far east as well.

    http://www.faurecia.com/en/group
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 20418
    In any case the UK could just go tariff free on imports of car spares and parts and cut the corporation tax and power bills to offset the tariffs when the cars head back the other way.

    Personally I don't think there will be a no-deal Brexit. May gave Nissan an assurance - I'd love to know what it is ...

    The Rotterdam effect masks UK exports to the EU as, for example, Jaguar cars going to China are exported to the EU and then shipped onward to China via Rotterdam.
    Frexited
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  • sixstringsuppliessixstringsupplies Frets: 156
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    Just to come back to this,

    the SMMT prelimary report was published yesterday (i suspect the full report wont be for 6 months or so, and I suspect this has only been published in response to the growing threat of a no deal brexit)

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/2019/01/uk-automotive-on-red-alert-as-no-deal-threat-sees-manufacturing-and-investment-plummet/

    The uncertainty over the past 12 months has lead to a massive decrease in investment, production and exports as suspected.

    I always knew the UK industry was really entwined with the EU, but not to this level.
    Our YouTube Channel for handy "How-To" Wiring Tutorials
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  • OctafishOctafish Frets: 1755
    Just to come back to this,

    the SMMT prelimary report was published yesterday (i suspect the full report wont be for 6 months or so, and I suspect this has only been published in response to the growing threat of a no deal brexit)

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/2019/01/uk-automotive-on-red-alert-as-no-deal-threat-sees-manufacturing-and-investment-plummet/

    The uncertainty over the past 12 months has lead to a massive decrease in investment, production and exports as suspected.

    I always knew the UK industry was really entwined with the EU, but not to this level.
    Don't worry, someone will be along very soon to tell it's fake nooze/nothing to do with Brexit/would have happened anyway (delete as applicable) ;)
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  • marantz1300marantz1300 Frets: 1855
    edited January 31
    Yes
    Brexit seems to be going very well, just as planed.
    17.000,000 leavetards can't be wrong.
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  • mbembe Frets: 1029
    The government's pamphlet about the referendum choice, in black and white delivered to every household, stated that Brexit would lead to uncertainty. So there you retainers,  that fact was in plain sight for all to see.

    Nobody was lied to. They advertise the lotto on buses but the driver can't sell you a euromillions ticket. 
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 11956
    mbe said:
    The government's pamphlet about the referendum choice, in black and white delivered to every household, stated that Brexit would lead to uncertainty. So there you retainers,  that fact was in plain sight for all to see.

    Nobody was lied to. They advertise the lotto on buses but the driver can't sell you a euromillions ticket. 
    Are you honestly putting that forward as a rational argument?  The government leaflet was in favour of remain (linked below, if you'd like to read it again). 

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 5824
    Yes
    Brexit seems to be going very well, just as planed.
    17.000,000 leavetards can't be wrong.
    Are you "planing" to drag this discussion down to petty insults? 
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  • p90foolp90fool Frets: 13009
    mbe said:
    The government's pamphlet about the referendum choice, in black and white delivered to every household, stated that Brexit would lead to uncertainty. So there you retainers,  that fact was in plain sight for all to see.

    Nobody was lied to. They advertise the lotto on buses but the driver can't sell you a euromillions ticket. 
    Are you honestly putting that forward as a rational argument?  The government leaflet was in favour of remain (linked below, if you'd like to read it again). 

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

    Are you seriously suggesting that it was wrong, and that it hasn't led to uncertainty?

    It may well have been "biased", but only in as much as it was stating the bleedin' obvious. 
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 11956
    p90fool said:
    mbe said:
    The government's pamphlet about the referendum choice, in black and white delivered to every household, stated that Brexit would lead to uncertainty. So there you retainers,  that fact was in plain sight for all to see.

    Nobody was lied to. They advertise the lotto on buses but the driver can't sell you a euromillions ticket. 
    Are you honestly putting that forward as a rational argument?  The government leaflet was in favour of remain (linked below, if you'd like to read it again). 

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

    Are you seriously suggesting that it was wrong, and that it hasn't led to uncertainty?

    It may well have been "biased", but only in as much as it was stating the bleedin' obvious. 
    Not at all - obviously it has lead to uncertainty, which was clear from the start. But that's not how the Leave campaign framed it at all.

    The comment from @mbe seemed to have been defending uncertainty as being obvious and that everyone who voted Leave knew that it would lead to uncertainty, as opposed to the land of milk & honey that was promised by Boris & friends with near-instant trade deals and no more foreign people serving your morning Starbucks. Apols if I have the wrong end the stick with the intention of that post.

    FWIW I was on the fence on voting day, and didn't vote, but now hold a clear position that remaining is clearly the best option and we're lucky that it's still even a remote possibility after the amount of time and effort wasted by the both sides during the shitshow that has been the UK Government's attempts at negotiation.
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  • mbembe Frets: 1029
    p90fool said:
    mbe said:
    The government's pamphlet about the referendum choice, in black and white delivered to every household, stated that Brexit would lead to uncertainty. So there you retainers,  that fact was in plain sight for all to see.

    Nobody was lied to. They advertise the lotto on buses but the driver can't sell you a euromillions ticket. 
    Are you honestly putting that forward as a rational argument?  The government leaflet was in favour of remain (linked below, if you'd like to read it again). 

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

    Are you seriously suggesting that it was wrong, and that it hasn't led to uncertainty?

    It may well have been "biased", but only in as much as it was stating the bleedin' obvious. 
    Not at all - obviously it has lead to uncertainty, which was clear from the start. But that's not how the Leave campaign framed it at all.

    The comment from @mbe seemed to have been defending uncertainty as being obvious and that everyone who voted Leave knew that it would lead to uncertainty, as opposed to the land of milk & honey that was promised by Boris & friends with near-instant trade deals and no more foreign people serving your morning Starbucks. Apols if I have the wrong end the stick with the intention of that post.

    FWIW I was on the fence on voting day, and didn't vote, but now hold a clear position that remaining is clearly the best option and we're lucky that it's still even a remote possibility after the amount of time and effort wasted by the both sides during the shitshow that has been the UK Government's attempts at negotiation.
    @stickyfiddle, yes you have my point exactly right. Thanks.
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  • seany65seany65 Frets: 263
    The vote for Brexit only led to a level of uncertainty which would have ended once a deal had been done. Anyone should have realised that.

    The continuing uncertainty we have now, is down to MP's doing their best to stop Brexit that isn't the sort of Brexit they wanted, or trying to stop any sort of Brexit. That is not the fault of the leave campaign, it is the fault of the MP's.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 14165
    Which is part of the referendum problem. Two campaigns with very limited accountability to the electorate joined by non official campaigns with no accountability. 
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  • bwetsbwets Frets: 132
    seany65 said:
    The vote for Brexit only led to a level of uncertainty which would have ended once a deal had been done. Anyone should have realised that.

    The continuing uncertainty we have now, is down to MP's doing their best to stop Brexit that isn't the sort of Brexit they wanted, or trying to stop any sort of Brexit. That is not the fault of the leave campaign, it is the fault of the MP's.
    MP's are still voting on a withdrawal agreement, not a deal. That comes later. There was always going to be at least four years of uncertainty (two years for the withdrawal, two for a deal) with the Conservative Party's 'plan'.

    The Conservative party called a referendum on leaving the EU with no clear plan for leaving the EU. Total incompetence.
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  • exocetexocet Frets: 769
    bwets said:
    seany65 said:
    The vote for Brexit only led to a level of uncertainty which would have ended once a deal had been done. Anyone should have realised that.

    The continuing uncertainty we have now, is down to MP's doing their best to stop Brexit that isn't the sort of Brexit they wanted, or trying to stop any sort of Brexit. That is not the fault of the leave campaign, it is the fault of the MP's.
    MP's are still voting on a withdrawal agreement, not a deal. That comes later. There was always going to be at least four years of uncertainty (two years for the withdrawal, two for a deal) with the Conservative Party's 'plan'.

    The Conservative party called a referendum on leaving the EU with no clear plan for leaving the EU. Total incompetence.
    That's pretty much it, leaving without a deal was never contemplated / planned for / would have been chaotic certainly if invoked early on after revocation of A50. The "transition period" only came into being once negotiations commenced....the thought process was explained as "business doesn't want two transitions (Hard Brexit +WTO followed by a new FTA 2 years later so let's have a transition period where 95% stays the same......then came the "Backstop". We've got years of "uncertainty" ahead of us.
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