When the current generation of 60-something year old guitarristas have passed…

HAL9000 · January 16

…will people still buy 50s guitars? Or will that market disappear? After all there won’t be anyone left who actually remembers the early days of Rock’n’Roll etc.

Tannin · January 16

Not really. Yes. No.

Rock and roll will never die. The idiotic prices paid for 30s ad 50s instruments which are, when it's all said and done, of no great actual value, will become a curiosity of times past.

EricTheWeary · January 16

It's collectables, nobody remembers the Ming Dynasty either.

HAL9000 · January 16

Sorry, to clarify, I meant 50s style guitars such as the Vintera series rather than real 60s instruments.

lustycourtier · January 16

To remember the early days of rock n roll, someones in their 80s now, but I totally get what your saying, and was saying same thing 20 years ago when I was sat on valuable stuff and prices were dropping (US 2008(?) recession wiped out a lot of value on bursts etc) but it all recovered.
Theres always gonna be collectors of old things but who knows what market will do

rexter · January 16

Absolutely! I'm in my 40s but since the age of 20 have been a vintage fan/snob. Classic designs will always be sort after and as the real vintage instruments become an asset class rather than, well, instruments, people will still want the vintage aesthetic for affordable prices.

Strat54 · January 16

Some of the biggest collectors and dealers I know are under 40 right now,

TeleMaster · January 16

Yea. Strats and Teles are classic designs, they won't go out of fashion.

Philly_Q · January 16

I think there'll be a slow evolution. Strats, Teles and Les Pauls will still be popular, but there won't be quite such an insistence that only '50s and '60s models were any good. Guitars from other eras will also become collectables.

Grumpyrocker · January 16

Les Paul models were already old fashioned when the likes of Page and others started using them again in the lste 60s, leading to a revival. Styles come and go, and old favourites get left behind and re-appear again.

Philly_Q · January 16

Hopefully at some point there'll be no more new guitars with teeny tiny frets and 7.25" radius fretboards.

distressed · January 16

Philly_Q said:

Guitars from other eras will also become collectables.

This.

impmann · January 16

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

In short, they aren't quite as backwards looking as older generations...

I'm not sure there is *quite* the same level of desire to 'collect' in the same way, either.

The older I get the more I realise that these older guitars aren't rare - they are just in collections (they weren't binned like normal consumables). When any market floods, the values drop - basic economics. And there are 100s of these things, sat in cases in 'collections' doing nothing - with families who just want to cash them in when anno dominie catches up with their owners...

So whilst we won't see late 50s Les Pauls for £50 - the current daft asking prices for run of the mill stuff (even stuff now considered "vintage") will have to fall, as apart from bedroom dealers nobody is buying...

TeleMaster · January 16

impmann said:

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

In short, they aren't quite as backwards looking as older generations...

I'm not sure there is *quite* the same level of desire to 'collect' in the same way, either.

The older I get the more I realise that these older guitars aren't rare - they are just in collections (they weren't binned like normal consumables). When any market floods, the values drop - basic economics. And there are 100s of these things, sat in cases in 'collections' doing nothing - with families who just want to cash them in when anno dominie catches up with their owners...

So whilst we won't see late 50s Les Pauls for £50 - the current daft asking prices for run of the mill stuff (even stuff now considered "vintage") will have to fall, as apart from bedroom dealers nobody is buying...

The market is absolutely mental. Juniors that cost £2K a few years ago are £15k now. Refins at the price all original examples were not long ago.

They are rare if they're not in general circulation, the scarcity is definitely there because people are hanging onto them in private collections, and those who inherit them aren't going to put them on eBay, they'll go to a proper auction house where they have particular cliental, or dealers who charge premium prices. I doubt these people will let them drop massively, but yes, people will find that the prices they're asking mean they're unobtainable too so they'll either keep them until they get the price they want or they'll drop their prices, but I doubt they'll drop massively because the vintage dealers seem to be hiking prices daily and I don't see this stopping.

Everyone says the bubble will burst but it's just growing and growing!

distressed · January 16

impmann said:

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

Nor are they obsessed with gear generally. We rarely speak about our guitars/amps/effects when we share the bill with other bands. It's mostly about music and bands in general, or performances on that gig, or some trivial stuff. Guitar forums are small niche actually.

TeleMaster · January 16

distressed said:

impmann said:

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

Nor are they obsessed with gear generally. We rarely speak about our guitars/amps/effects when we share the bill with other bands. It's mostly about music and bands in general, or performances on that gig, or some trivial stuff. Guitar forums are small niche actually.

Nor did I, or anyone else I knew when I was younger and just starting out. It was pointless to spend my time drooling over gear because I didn't have the money or interest to care about amps and pedals. We had a punk DIY attitude and we just wanted to plug in and play. It was a simpler time for me (90's/00's) because I had to make do with what i had, we had no choice but to.

When people get a job and progress a bit and get disposible income is when your head gets turned. Like many I have some nice guitars now, and my 16 year old self would've spontaneously combusted if I could've had just one of them, let alone a few. I was playing a Rockster though lol.

impmann · January 16

TeleMaster said:

impmann said:

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

In short, they aren't quite as backwards looking as older generations...

I'm not sure there is *quite* the same level of desire to 'collect' in the same way, either.

The older I get the more I realise that these older guitars aren't rare - they are just in collections (they weren't binned like normal consumables). When any market floods, the values drop - basic economics. And there are 100s of these things, sat in cases in 'collections' doing nothing - with families who just want to cash them in when anno dominie catches up with their owners...

So whilst we won't see late 50s Les Pauls for £50 - the current daft asking prices for run of the mill stuff (even stuff now considered "vintage") will have to fall, as apart from bedroom dealers nobody is buying...

The market is absolutely mental. Juniors that cost £2K a few years ago are £15k now. Refins at the price all original examples were not long ago.

They are rare if they're not in general circulation, the scarcity is definitely there because people are hanging onto them in private collections, and those who inherit them aren't going to put them on eBay, they'll go to a proper auction house where they have particular cliental, or dealers who charge premium prices. I doubt these people will let them drop massively, but yes, people will find that the prices they're asking mean they're unobtainable too so they'll either keep them until they get the price they want or they'll drop their prices, but I doubt they'll drop massively because the vintage dealers seem to be hiking prices daily and I don't see this stopping.

Everyone says the bubble will burst but it's just growing and growing!

True - but those £15k price tags are *asking prices*, not necessarily the selling prices.

Don't believe *everything* you see about the vintage market - its massively manipulated to make you think there is massive desire and there are all hundreds of these wealthy guys waiting in line to buy vintage kit. There isn't really... and a lot of the guitars for sale in these dealers have been for sale for (in some cases) *years*. The true collector circle is actually very small - and those with big pockets are well known.

Always remember the used car dealer code - if something doesn't sell, put the price *up* to make it look more desirable. If everyone does the same thing, this drives the expected lower price ceiling up and so eventually it becomes a 'bargain'. (Quote: Arthur Daley)

theatreanchor · January 16

Who knows. Maybe current Squires will become obscenely collectable and hailed as the great comeback era where they rivalled 'real' Fender guitars. Etc.

OilCityPickups · January 16

impmann said:

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

In short, they aren't quite as backwards looking as older generations...

I'm not sure there is *quite* the same level of desire to 'collect' in the same way, either.

The older I get the more I realise that these older guitars aren't rare - they are just in collections (they weren't binned like normal consumables). When any market floods, the values drop - basic economics. And there are 100s of these things, sat in cases in 'collections' doing nothing - with families who just want to cash them in when anno dominie catches up with their owners...

So whilst we won't see late 50s Les Pauls for £50 - the current daft asking prices for run of the mill stuff (even stuff now considered "vintage") will have to fall, as apart from bedroom dealers nobody is buying...

Exactly what I find amongst my customers... the iPhone generation just want shit to work and do its job. They are less likely to suffer quirks that the old guard see as 'historic', like poor tuning stability and nonsensical control layouts.
If I were earning my living gigging these days I'd most likely go for a Strandberg or an Ormsby ... or a Black Machine.

distressed · January 16

TeleMaster said:

distressed said:

Nor are they obsessed with gear generally. We rarely speak about our guitars/amps/effects when we share the bill with other bands. It's mostly about music and bands in general, or performances on that gig, or some trivial stuff. Guitar forums are small niche actually.

Nor did I, or anyone else I knew when I was younger and just starting out. It was pointless to spend my time drooling over gear because I didn't have the money or interest to care about amps and pedals. We had a punk DIY attitude and we just wanted to plug in and play. It was a simpler time for me (90's/00's) because I had to make do with what i had, we had no choice but to.

When people get a job and progress a bit and get disposible income is when your head gets turned. Like many I have some nice guitars now, and my 16 year old self would've spontaneously combusted if I could've had just one of them, let alone a few. I was playing a Rockster though lol.

I'm 50 now, with a solid bit of disposable income, but I guess I'm lucky I've never caught that GAS. I still spend too much time looking at gear sites (maybe 5-6 times a day), but I know I won't go further than that If I don't really need some stuff, and this is rarely.

More or less, the same is with any band I know/play with/hang out with, from my indie (in the broadest sense) cicle. Maybe some shoegaze nerd here and there with a huge pedalboard, but I'd struggle to remember anyone with -say- more than 5 guitars (in most cases it's 2-3 max).

TeleMaster · January 16

impmann said:

TeleMaster said:

impmann said:

TBH, though, all the younger *MUSICIANS* (not folks who hang about on forums...) I speak to aren't fussed about things being 'vintage'. Yes, they may say "oh yeah thats cool" but most of them are more interested in the comfort and performance of an instrument/amp/effect vs cost.

In short, they aren't quite as backwards looking as older generations...

I'm not sure there is *quite* the same level of desire to 'collect' in the same way, either.

The older I get the more I realise that these older guitars aren't rare - they are just in collections (they weren't binned like normal consumables). When any market floods, the values drop - basic economics. And there are 100s of these things, sat in cases in 'collections' doing nothing - with families who just want to cash them in when anno dominie catches up with their owners...

So whilst we won't see late 50s Les Pauls for £50 - the current daft asking prices for run of the mill stuff (even stuff now considered "vintage") will have to fall, as apart from bedroom dealers nobody is buying...

The market is absolutely mental. Juniors that cost £2K a few years ago are £15k now. Refins at the price all original examples were not long ago.

They are rare if they're not in general circulation, the scarcity is definitely there because people are hanging onto them in private collections, and those who inherit them aren't going to put them on eBay, they'll go to a proper auction house where they have particular cliental, or dealers who charge premium prices. I doubt these people will let them drop massively, but yes, people will find that the prices they're asking mean they're unobtainable too so they'll either keep them until they get the price they want or they'll drop their prices, but I doubt they'll drop massively because the vintage dealers seem to be hiking prices daily and I don't see this stopping.

Everyone says the bubble will burst but it's just growing and growing!

True - but those £15k price tags are *asking prices*, not necessarily the selling prices.

Don't believe *everything* you see about the vintage market - its massively manipulated to make you think there is massive desire and there are all hundreds of these wealthy guys waiting in line to buy vintage kit. There isn't really... and a lot of the guitars for sale in these dealers have been for sale for (in some cases) *years*. The true collector circle is actually very small - and those with big pockets are well known.

Always remember the used car dealer code - if something doesn't sell, put the price *up* to make it look more desirable. If everyone does the same thing, this drives the expected lower price ceiling up and so eventually it becomes a 'bargain'. (Quote: Arthur Daley)

I agree to a certain extent but I know that they can be pretty firm on prices and they will get close to what they're asking for. I've bought a couple of vintage guitars myself from dealers at the asking price (when they were lower), and I still have friends who buy old guitars quite frequently and they're haggling a bit but it's not like a £15K guitar is gonna get haggled down to £10k or anything close, maybe £14k/£14,250. When I bought my guitars the dealers would barely budge on price or gave low values on trade ins.

If you look at ATB and Guitar Avenue a lot of those guitars often don't hang around, so the demand absolutely is there especially in the UK/European market where there is a limited amount of guitars, and not many are being introduced from the American market anymore so there is definitely scarcity involved.

But yes, those who can spend big are few and far between but there are enough of them to keep the vintage market growing. The likes of me, who would've chopped in a couple of guitars for something cool and thrown in a couple of grand are now priced out of the market so vintage guitars will become the playthings of the very well off.

My friend is looking for a two pickup Melody Maker and there's one on eBay priced crazily but he's thinking that he should just pull the trigger because they never come up and someone else could grab it.

There will be a tipping point, but I imagine it'll just stay static at a certain price point without the bottom completely falling out of it, there are too many people with too much invested to allow that to happen. They'll just sit on it until the market recovers.

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