What to do about North Korea ?

Clarky

ESBlonde said:

I think NK is a side show and Donald is flexing to show China that they can't dominate the south china sea. The world (read USA) is insisting that the free navigation in the area is not impeeded by the Chinees building man made islands, arming them and declaring the whole area national waters.

good point.. China has been taking the pas a bit occupying the little islands off the coast of the Philippines etc..
and stating that they are not military.. and then building deep water ports, airstrips and defines on them.
these islands are like the size of a fag box.. so there has to be something else of great value to warrant the huge investment.. something oil maybe? or maybe some military staging point for some undisclosed future eventuality??
the main point though is that technically those islands are not theirs.. they just took them..
and no one has the muscle to stand up to them and place any sort of objection beyond strong words..
which China couldn't give a crap about..

Nikko

Philtre said:

Emp_Fab said:

Maybe I've seen too many Mission Impossible films but you'd think that they could assassinate one bloke wouldn't you?

Yeah, you'd think that Trump would be a sitting duck at Mar a Lago.

Just need to find someone (probably James Bond) to have a round of golf with him, and replace his ball with one filled with high explosives.

Job done.

Clarky

Chalky said:

@Clarky is on to something here.

The very recent intelligence that the NK nuclear programme is much further advanced has emerged at just the right time to add weight to the NK posturing. That is not a coincidence. Intelligence, especially of that nature, is released at the 'right time' after months of careful planning.  It most certainly does not just appear. So either NK has leaked it as part of its propaganda programme or the US has suddenly leaked it as part of its response to the situation. Neither of these prove its veracity of course. But this does demonstrate that there is a posturing war going on.

there seems to be no dispute that NK has some sort of nuclear capability or a delivery system with quite a long range..
what's not clear but has been speculated on is if the warheads can be reduced sufficiently in size and weight so that they can be carried on their delivery system..
if they've done this it would obviously be cause for concern.. cos they behave like they're fkn nuts
if they haven't, it's simply a matter of time, so if there's no cause for concern today, there will be tomorrow..

the problem with posturing is that if there's not enough room for manoeuvre, both sides cannot find a way of backing out without losing face and so it can lead to a real conflict that in reality neither side actually wants..
the Russians are masters of this sort of brinkmanship.. and are always very clever in leaving enough exit routes to de-escalate a situation… I'm not sure that NK is quite so astute..

the other prob with NK's posturing is that they refuse to negotiate with anyone about anything..
so from NK's perspective… what's the point of it? what's in it for them?
and this is the piece that makes least sense.. because I'm not seeing any objectives..
the sanctions will just hit them harder and harder.. even those from their allies
they are backing themselves into a corner but without every stating what it is they want to gain

Clarky

Haych said:

Nobody wants to do anything about NK.

If the NK regime collapsed then China or SK would find itself having to fill a power and economy vacuum that they simply couldn't afford even if they wanted to. 

My guess is nothing will actually happen and Trump and Kim will just continue to insult and threaten each other in the media.

which is senseless and makes neither side look particularly good

Haych

Clarky said:

Haych said:

Nobody wants to do anything about NK.

If the NK regime collapsed then China or SK would find itself having to fill a power and economy vacuum that they simply couldn't afford even if they wanted to. 

My guess is nothing will actually happen and Trump and Kim will just continue to insult and threaten each other in the media.

which is senseless and makes neither side look particularly good

Couldn't agree more. While everyone sits on their thumbs and does nothing the people under the NK regeim are oppressed and scared witless of breathing. The human rights abuse in the country is staggering and shameful. 

Clarky

Haych said:

Clarky said:

Haych said:

Nobody wants to do anything about NK.

If the NK regime collapsed then China or SK would find itself having to fill a power and economy vacuum that they simply couldn't afford even if they wanted to. 

My guess is nothing will actually happen and Trump and Kim will just continue to insult and threaten each other in the media.

which is senseless and makes neither side look particularly good

Couldn't agree more. While everyone sits on their thumbs and does nothing the people under the NK regeim are oppressed and scared witless of breathing. The human rights abuse in the country is staggering and shameful. 

but they manage to survive by leaning to clap really hard, arms out stretched and hands held high when the boss is around..
kinda sad ain't it

Fretwired

Emp_Fab said:

What do you do with a batshit crazy dictator threatening to launch nuclear weapons at other countries ?

As you might have noticed, I'm no fan of Trump but Kim Jong-Megalomaniac cannot be allowed to launch nukes. no matter what.

Personally, I would support blowing the shit out of every site in N.Korea that might have ICBMs.

An interesting theory ... Kim is sane and liberal. He was sent out of the country for his education and ended up in liberal Switzerland. N Korea is probably under military martial law - Kim's just a puppet. Members of his family and other officials have been killed to keep him in line. These generals are bonkers .. this is the unofficial view of some top US/UK security specialists. War is therefore highly likely as these guys are desperate. Kim's dad wanted Kim to be a moderniser along similar lines to China.

Fretwired

chillidoggy said:

JezWynd said:

Trump in power for 6 months and the world is on brink of nuclear war. Who'd have guessed.

I'm of the opinion it wouldn't matter who was in power.

Probably right, but Trump is hardly diplomatic. N Korea is funded by Iran and supported by China. A more able politician would be able to pull a crisis like this back from the brink.

JezWynd

Clarky said:

the other prob with NK's posturing is that they refuse to negotiate with anyone about anything..
so from NK's perspective… what's the point of it? what's in it for them?
and this is the piece that makes least sense.. because I'm not seeing any objectives..
the sanctions will just hit them harder and harder.. even those from their allies
they are backing themselves into a corner but without every stating what it is they want to gain

NK think that by having a nuclear capability it guarantees their survival. And when they look around and see the countries that US has invaded, they might have a point.

Kim's bellicose posturing is for his domestic audience. Most people realise this and just ignore him. It's only Trump, who has to be the biggest bully in the playground, who doesn't seem to know. The situation is of Trump's making - drawing red lines is never a good idea, even less so when you might be forced to back your mouth up with nuclear weapons.

Kim doesn't seem to give a fig for the suffering of his people, so in his mind they don't come into the equation except as an adoring audience for his tweaking the US nose.

mellowsun

ICBM

Fretwired said:

An interesting theory ... Kim is sane and liberal. He was sent out of the country for his education and ended up in liberal Switzerland. N Korea is probably under military martial law - Kim's just a puppet. Members of his family and other officials have been killed to keep him in line. These generals are bonkers .. this is the unofficial view of some top US/UK security specialists. War is therefore highly likely as these guys are desperate. Kim's dad wanted Kim to be a moderniser along similar lines to China.

Interesting - and possibly worrying. It could make sense.

What still doesn't make sense is what they think they'd gain from a war. It's possibly still more credible that Kim is a mad dictator... although whichever it is, they must surely realise that any attack on the US will bring down massive retaliation - the leadership won't be as isolated from the world as they keep their people.

chillidoggy

I'd agree with Clarky when he says there no demands from NK. In fact I don't ever recall there being any, just rhetoric, and sabre-rattling. What the fuck is their endgame? It appears not to be money, just a headlong rush to develop nuclear weapons that will strike the US. And then what? They launch a strike against the US, and get wiped of the face of the earth?

Even the most crazy dictators never behaved like that. 

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

An interesting theory ... Kim is sane and liberal. He was sent out of the country for his education and ended up in liberal Switzerland. N Korea is probably under military martial law - Kim's just a puppet. Members of his family and other officials have been killed to keep him in line. These generals are bonkers .. this is the unofficial view of some top US/UK security specialists. War is therefore highly likely as these guys are desperate. Kim's dad wanted Kim to be a moderniser along similar lines to China.

Interesting - and possibly worrying. It could make sense.

What still doesn't make sense is what they think they'd gain from a war. It's possibly still more credible that Kim is a mad dictator... although whichever it is, they must surely realise that any attack on the US will bring down massive retaliation - the leadership won't be as isolated from the world as they keep their people.

Like the military of all totalitarian regimes  you need the threat of war or a bogey man to hold onto power - the people are starving and live grim lives, and at some point there will be a revolution or demands for change. There always is .. look at Russia and China.

Remember Kim vanished for a while .. that was odd.

Clarky

IIRC, technically, NK and the USA are still officially at war
no piece treaty was signed.. nothing that officially states a cessation of hostilities..

and.. priority number 1 for any dictator is… stay in power at all costs..

ronnyb

Strangely enough my wife is called Kim. She also likes posturing, sabre rattling and making threats. 

ESBlonde

Clarky said:

IIRC, technically, NK and the USA are still officially at war
no piece treaty was signed.. nothing that officially states a cessation of hostilities..

and.. priority number 1 for any dictator is… stay in power at all costs..

More interesting is that it never was a war, it was a police action! But you are correct there is a cease fire but no end to hostilities. 

Axe_meister

What needs to happen in NK is a people's revolution. Unfortunately they are probably too hungry and weak to rebel.

chillidoggy

Looks like things could be hotting up. NK reported as saying they will consider strikes on Guam in days.

Haych

chillidoggy said:

Looks like things could be hotting up. NK reported as saying they will consider strikes on Guam in days.

Yeah saw that too. They're threatening to fire missiles into the sea about twenty miles from Guam. I guess the North Koreans don't like water sports?

mike_l

Haych said:

chillidoggy said:

Looks like things could be hotting up. NK reported as saying they will consider strikes on Guam in days.

Yeah saw that too. They're threatening to fire missiles into the sea about twenty miles from the launch pad. I guess the North Koreans don't like water sports?

Fixed for accuracy.