Can't see how smaller music stores can survive now - and maybe not even some of the bigger stores

carlos

rossi said:

I think the world we know it has changed.We dont realiize it yet but it took us 20 years to recover from the war and huge Government spending .That was with an America who  had grown wealthier in the war years .This time its shit all over and we are seeing only the first wave of this virus .it will take at least two years to develop a vaccination for it and thats only if it works .It will take years to vaccinate everyone  .On the back of pestilance come famine and war .The four horsemen are off the LP covers and trotting down  our streets .I really hope I am a silly old fart who has read too many history books.

Don't forget climate change.

fields5069

TL:DR, but 2 possibilities spring to mind. One, the bigger stores eventually discount whatever they can, to improve cash flow. The little man probably goes under. Two, the bigger stores see the bigger picture, and actually make a point of not discounting, using social media to push this message, and probably winning new customers.

CarpeDiem

rossi said:

I think the world we know it has changed.We dont realiize it yet but it took us 20 years to recover from the war and huge Government spending .That was with an America who  had grown wealthier in the war years .This time its shit all over and we are seeing only the first wave of this virus .it will take at least two years to develop a vaccination for it and thats only if it works .It will take years to vaccinate everyone  .On the back of pestilance come famine and war .The four horsemen are off the LP covers and trotting down  our streets .I really hope I am a silly old fart who has read too many history books.

I think you need to get out more - oh,sorry I forgot.....

TINMAN82

rossi said:

I think the world we know it has changed.We dont realiize it yet but it took us 20 years to recover from the war and huge Government spending .That was with an America who  had grown wealthier in the war years .This time its shit all over and we are seeing only the first wave of this virus .it will take at least two years to develop a vaccination for it and thats only if it works .It will take years to vaccinate everyone  .On the back of pestilance come famine and war .The four horsemen are off the LP covers and trotting down  our streets .I really hope I am a silly old fart who has read too many history books.

It’s unlikely to take 2 years to get a working vaccine and considerably less than that to vaccinate the whole UK. I suspect we’ll get a vaccine in record time, given the scale of the problem, perhaps by the end of the year.

If it took 2 years the virus would have spread so far in the meantime (given its virulence plus lack of compliance with isolation measures) that herd immunity would already have developed but at the expense of many, many lives lost. If you look at the graphs for what happens if we do nothing, there’s an exponential peak above medical capacity, but the whole thing ends in a few months.

ICBM

TINMAN82 said:

If it took 2 years the virus would have spread so far in the meantime (given its virulence plus lack of compliance with isolation measures) that herd immunity would already have developed but at the expense of many, many lives lost. If you look at the graphs for what happens if we do nothing, there’s an exponential peak above medical capacity, but the whole thing ends in a few months.

Harsh though it sounds, that's actually the most effective strategy to minimise the economic impact and maximise natural immunity - we just can't accept it as a deliberate strategy morally. But if people don't take account of the restrictions and the government don't impose Chinese levels of forced compliance, we may get it anyway whether we like it or not.

prowla

Well, if most people have caught it within the two years, then a vaccine won't be needed.

TINMAN82

ICBM said:

TINMAN82 said:

If it took 2 years the virus would have spread so far in the meantime (given its virulence plus lack of compliance with isolation measures) that herd immunity would already have developed but at the expense of many, many lives lost. If you look at the graphs for what happens if we do nothing, there’s an exponential peak above medical capacity, but the whole thing ends in a few months.

Harsh though it sounds, that's actually the most effective strategy to minimise the economic impact and maximise natural immunity - we just can't accept it as a deliberate strategy morally. But if people don't take account of the restrictions and the government don't impose Chinese levels of forced compliance, we may get it anyway whether we like it or not.

I think the truth is (unless improving weather or regional genetics play a part noone has predicted) we will now have some version of that whatever we do. By that I mean the “let it spread like wildfire” strategy. Because it’s bound to be more prevalent than testing suggests already and it takes over 2 weeks for any intervention to start working (whoever is incubating it right now will present in 2 weeks whether or not we go on a military enforced lockdown today or not).

rossi

CarpeDiem said:

rossi said:

I think the world we know it has changed.We dont realiize it yet but it took us 20 years to recover from the war and huge Government spending .That was with an America who  had grown wealthier in the war years .This time its shit all over and we are seeing only the first wave of this virus .it will take at least two years to develop a vaccination for it and thats only if it works .It will take years to vaccinate everyone  .On the back of pestilance come famine and war .The four horsemen are off the LP covers and trotting down  our streets .I really hope I am a silly old fart who has read too many history books.

I think you need to get out more - oh,sorry I forgot.....

great joke but I think maybe you should have stayed in more and  done a reality check,nothing goes as planned .

Whitecat

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/23/government-considers-forcing-non-essential-shops-to-close-reports-coronavirus

impmann

I don't think I'm allowed to say who (yet) but one of the big stores is going to be closing as of tonight - not for good, but temporarily due to the virus.

Whitecat

Anderton's is closed now, but they didn't really make a fanfare out of it. They closed for the weekend due to "staff shortages" and said they were going to try to open today, but they haven't. Mailorder still operating...

dindude

Forcing business to close that are non essential is the only way it’ll stop, anyone who is allowed to trade, aside from some retail deciding not to, is furiously and defiantly trading. 

Also, online still ok? Someone in a Warehouse has to pick and pack it, then it goes on it’s journey through a parcel network etc, all those people have to get to work - just one example.

crunchman

Whitecat said:

Anderton's is closed now, but they didn't really make a fanfare out of it. They closed for the weekend due to "staff shortages" and said they were going to try to open today, but they haven't. Mailorder still operating...

Lee Anderton has a video up on facebook.  He's self isolating as his daughter has a fever.  From what he said, the shop will be closed for the next couple of weeks at least - but they will keep reviewing it.  It might well end up being much longer.

They are trying to keep the warehouse and mail order going for now.

impmann

Richtone are now on reserve and collect only.

Whitecat

GAK just announced retail shop closure "except by limited appointment" 

Blueingreen

For some retailers the calculation will be that to get significant sales at the current level of uncertainty discounts would have to be massive.  Better to hold on to your stock and hope you can get better prices later.  Probably not pre-crisis prices but hopefully better than you can get now.

impmann

Blueingreen said:

For some retailers the calculation will be that to get significant sales at the current level of uncertainty discounts would have to be massive.  Better to hold on to your stock and hope you can get better prices later.  Probably not pre-crisis prices but hopefully better than you can get now.

Actually, for a lot of the shops it more about keeping their staff and themselves safe. Whilst money comes into it, it isn't the overall decider... I say that after speaking to folks in the industry.

guitars4you

Blueingreen said:

For some retailers the calculation will be that to get significant sales at the current level of uncertainty discounts would have to be massive.  Better to hold on to your stock and hope you can get better prices later.  Probably not pre-crisis prices but hopefully better than you can get now.

It will depend on their existing cash reserves/cash flow and I dare say all stores will be different

It is possible to run a business for many months and not make a profit - But you can't run a business, no matter how successful or profitable it is, for many days without cash 

Cash is king 

Voxman

guitars4you said:

Blueingreen said:

For some retailers the calculation will be that to get significant sales at the current level of uncertainty discounts would have to be massive.  Better to hold on to your stock and hope you can get better prices later.  Probably not pre-crisis prices but hopefully better than you can get now.

It will depend on their existing cash reserves/cash flow and I dare say all stores will be different

It is possible to run a business for many months and not make a profit - But you can't run a business, no matter how successful or profitable it is, for many days without cash 

Cash is king 

Yup, businesses live or die through cash flow. 

Whitecat

Peach just announced store closure.