Chilcot outcome predictions.

roundthebend · July 2016

I don't know what to expect. But I'm not entirely convinced of Chilcot's credentials, since he's quoted as saying "careful analysis needed before war" yesterday.

I'd have thought that was pretty obvious. Even Blair didn't wake up one day and think, sod it we'll go to war in Iraq.

fretmeister · July 2016

The fact that the ICC can't do anything to Blair doesn't stop the CPS or Parliament itself starting action against him.

CPS won't, but I imagine that someone in Parliament will try and will fail.

Snap · July 2016

Blair is no fool, never has been. I'm not a particular fan of his, but I find it hard to believe that he took us to war on anything other than his genuine conviction it was the right thing to do.

That's the crux for me - his personal beliefs on the matter. He's also a big god squadder, so inherently his judgement is flawed.

Whilst it may have been the wrong thing to do, I think he THOUGHT it was the right thing. I don't reckon he had any doubts in his own mind.

paulk · July 2016

Fuck all of any consequence will happen. There'll be a few slapped wrists, some outraged/hand-wringing newspaper columns, rounds of TV interviews talking shite, an explosion on twatter and Fuckbook plus some predictable memes. But all those people will still be dead, the region remains a colossal clusterfuck and Teflon fucking Tony will walk away grinning like a cunt.

brojangles · July 2016

Chilcot will say there were big procedural screw ups and offer some recommendations for fixing them which will be kicked into the long grass a la Leveson.

It will be revealed that Blair's chief error was hoping to steer the inevitable American invasion into a slightly less unilateral course, then getting caught up in the logic of that and up feeling obliged to go to war on a totally bogus platform rather than let Bush down.

Nothing much will happen to Blair because he has not much reputation left to be shredded anyway, but Jeremy Corbyn will be slightly shored up and have a better chance of leading the Labour Party to a massive general election defeat.

Nikko · July 2016

Snap said:

Blair is no fool, never has been. I'm not a particular fan of his, but I find it hard to believe that he took us to war on anything other than his genuine conviction it was the right thing to do.

That's the crux for me - his personal beliefs on the matter. He's also a big god squadder, so inherently his judgement is flawed.

Whilst it may have been the wrong thing to do, I think he THOUGHT it was the right thing. I don't reckon he had any doubts in his own mind.

Im with you on that. He may have been weak minded enough to be influenced by Bush to some degree, but I do think that he believed he was doing the right thing.

UnclePsychosis · July 2016

I'd like to revise my earlier prediction as it was laughably wrong.

Rather than waiting till lunchtime everyone has clearly read, understood, and digested it before it was even released.

Chilcot could have saved a lot of effort just by releasing a single page that said "your interpretation here" because that's what's going to happen anyway.

Ro_S · July 2016

Initial feelings seem to be that the inquiry report is more damning, at least in its wording and tone - than was generally expected.

ESBlonde · July 2016

Now He has nothing to do we should put Chilcot in charge of the Brexit negotiations. That should delay things for a decade or two.
Corbin is a bit like a broken watch, even thats right twice a day!

fretmeister · July 2016

Anyone ordered a copy yet?

Only £767 + delivery...

JezWynd · July 2016

Snap said:

Blair is no fool, never has been. I'm not a particular fan of his, but I find it hard to believe that he took us to war on anything other than his genuine conviction it was the right thing to do.

That's the crux for me - his personal beliefs on the matter. He's also a big god squadder, so inherently his judgement is flawed.

Whilst it may have been the wrong thing to do, I think he THOUGHT it was the right thing. I don't reckon he had any doubts in his own mind.

You're correct in saying that Blair honestly believed that he was in the vanguard of a crusade to do right. That doesn't absolve him of being a fool though, rather it makes implicit that he is one. Anyone who puts their beliefs above reason and the law is a fool and a dangerous one at that.

chillidoggy · July 2016

I know one thing that will definitely happen: This thread will go on, and on, and on, and on!

Ro_S · July 2016

fretmeister said:

Anyone ordered a copy yet?

Only £767 + delivery...

one can download the report for free

Ro_S · July 2016

octatonic said:

Will we see Tony in the Haig?

William Haig?

Eeww, please take that image away.

BigMonka · July 2016

fretmeister said:

Anyone ordered a copy yet?

Only £767 + delivery...

At 2million words I'd imagine deliver will cost quite a lot too

)

Fretwired · July 2016

After years of research and interviews, rewrites and a report with millions of words old bloke says "please check your facts before going to war" .. Sir Humphrey would be proud.

ICBM · July 2016

fretmeister said:
The decision to go to war is outside of the remit of the ICC.

I thought 'planning and waging a war of aggression' was covered? That's one of the charges that the surviving Nazis at Nuremburg faced.

Just asking, you're the professional

.

fretmeister · July 2016

ICBM said:

fretmeister said:
The decision to go to war is outside of the remit of the ICC.

I thought 'planning and waging a war of aggression' was covered? That's one of the charges that the surviving Nazis at Nuremburg faced.

Just asking, you're the professional .

I just pinched a quote from a QC on Twitter!

fretmeister · July 2016

Nice summary!

http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/07/chilcot-uks-toughest-ever-precis-challenge-tweet-by-tweet/

ICBM · July 2016

fretmeister said:

Nice summary!
http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/07/chilcot-uks-toughest-ever-precis-challenge-tweet-by-tweet/

Spotted this one…

"Adam Wagner @AdamWagner1

Basically the Iraq War was a massive gamble by Bush and Blair to remodel the Middle East, which failed spectacularly."

Not quite - 'failed' isn't the right word... 'backfired' is. They *succeeded* in remodelling the Middle East - the problem is that they created a nightmare beyond anyone's imagination at the time.

Howdy, Stranger!

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Chilcot outcome predictions.

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