Washington Post: "The slow, secret death of the six-string electric"

guitars4you · June 2017

Ravenous said:

Correction to my earlier post: Of the main manufacturers, I think Rickenbacker are still owned by the same family. I think they're the only one though.
Thought I'd better apologise to all you Rickenbacker fans! (Always had an irrational fancy for a 325 myself, you see...)

Correct about the Hall family owning Rickenbacker for many years - I understand they are proud of the heritage that Rickenbacker represents - But the Hall family are big property developers and that is what makes them their money - Rickenbacker is a token gesture in the grand stream of things regarding the Hall family portfolio - They are content for Rickenbacker to carry on as is and hard to pick a fault with such a policy

Grumpyrocker · June 2017

This reminds me of stories of the 80s when synth pop became big. Guitar sales took a dive.

But it's true we don't have the same kind of electric six string heroes anymore - not universal ones anyway.

Ironically I think it's one of the best times to be a guitar buyer. So many wonderful high quality guitars coming out of the far east now. It's not a great time to be Fender or Gibson, but if you are looking to spend £400 on a new guitar you're actually going to be able to by a better guitar than you ever have been able to.

crunchman · June 2017

@Ravenous - PRS haven't changed ownership either.

I know the articles are about electrics but Martin are still in the hands of the Martin family. Taylor are still run by Bob Taylor.

Apparently Sheeran is a Clapton fan. If he were to pick up and an electric and go a bit more rock, things could change overnight.

James Bay can properly play when he wants to as well.

Country and roots stuff seems to be getting bigger as well. Twanging Teles might not be wall of Marshall stack power trio but it's still electric guitar.

I'm not sure the demise of the live music scene is helping things very much. That's partly down to logistics and licensing, but I think the noise police don't help. It's difficult to have a proper "rock" attitude if you have a limiter at 95dB.

impmann · June 2017

Its hardly "secret" is it?

Even if you haven't worked in the industry, you'd need to have lived under a rock for the past 20 years to not notice the decline.

I'd agree that there are too many manufacturers - producing too many guitars that are too similar to each other. We have a guitar media that are obsessed with looking backwards (because thats what "sells") and all things old. Guitarists are cluttered with equipment. Finding places to play music that isn't 20+ year old covers is almost impossible.

The list goes on.

But the big one is young people just aren't being inspired to pickup, learn and play guitar in the numbers needed to support the current industry and that makes the future very finite.

The big scare, though, is Guitar Centre. When they fold (and believe me, the situation cannot continue indefinitely) we will see some *big* scalps as the US guitar industry (which ultimately dictates the buying/selling market worldwide) is wholeheartedly dependant on GC. As I've said before, this is the exact reason for Gibson's direct selling initiative - and the other big guns will do similar, mark my words. They'll have to and from a business perspective, it makes lots more sense to the manufacturer. I know a lot of folks here are very anti direct selling but, get used to it as it *is* the future whether you like it or not. All the signs are that its working, too... from what I've heard, the off-loading of the 2015 Gibsons through Amazon, even at the daft low prices that they went for, meant Gibson made a profit from their sale (albeit a squeezed one). Something they never could have done through the shops under those circumstances.

I believe that the future of the electric guitar isn't bleak, unless you make a living either making or distributing them. Natural selection will inevitably kill off some of the *huge* number of 'manufacturers', as the current choice is too great. The boutique market is doing well but thats only because their sales channel isn't flooded... yet. Once it gets flooded, again, we will see a lot fall away - bear in mind a large number of these guys are only one step up from hobbyist. However, the cream will rise to the top - dispite the fact that shit floats.

Finally, vintage guitars - and back to the article in particular. George Gruhn is probably rightly a little concerned. The baby boomers who made loads of money wanted to buy those expensive guitars that they couldn't afford in the 1960s when they were at college and bought heavily into the vintage market. The vintage guitar market boomed - in the majority, it wasn't really gigging musicians who bought these things, it was collectors and regular guys reliving their youth. As the BB generation die off, and their families liquidate their estates, we will see far more of these guitars become available again - and so, values will drop. We are seeing this elsewhere in other collectibles markets - the value of Dinky and Corgi Toys for example is falling for the 'standard' stuff. The mint and super rare are plateau-ing. The reason being is younger generations aren't interested in collecting these things in such the same numbers as their parents. Therefore whilst the exceptional will always hold a value, those that are restored or not quite perfect become less desireable and the values fall. Could we see the value of a "players grade" vintage Fender dropping to affordable levels? Not next week, but certainly I believe so within a reasonable time span.

That leaves Mr Gruhn and the other vintage dealers in a bit of a pickle - as there are a lot of them right now. If the market shrinks and the channel floods, there is less money to go around. The vintage guitar market has always been a 'long game' but with some guitars being on sale from certain stores for years (literally) how long can it last? You need cashflow to pay the mortgage.

Its not all doom and gloom - as musicians we, I believe, live in a golden era as consumers. The equipment has never been cheaper in real terms for the quality you receive. The choice is insane (confusing sometimes). We can get our new music 'out there' easier than ever before - in theory, although earning money from it is a different matter. And most of us have some of the best instruments we have ever owned in our lifetimes as a result.

But like I say, more tough times ahead for manufacturers and distributers of musical gear and its no secret. A death, though? Not quite.

RocknRollDave · June 2017

guitars4you said:

The big issue and this is now been going on for a few years is there has not been a major guitar based craze for a number of years - Be it solo artist or band - Think what made you want to pick up a guitar and play and that initial interest does generally not come from the artists that you then move onto once you've progressed a bit - ie the likes of Satriani and Vai, or Ford and Carlton do not stimulate initial interest in wanting to make you play - Grunge did - Indie did - Punk did - Brit Pop did - New Wave did etc

Absolutely.
It only takes one artist to make a big splash and get people buying guitars. Sadly for the guitar companies, we're overdue the next one, if there even IS a "next one".
Since I've been playing, you could probably credit three or four players with majorly increasing guitar sales - Slash, Cobain, Gallagher maybe...one or two others.

A few years back I couldn't go into a guitar shop without hearing some kid playing Muse, but Bellamy's guitars are a bit too esoteric for the mass market. If he'd been a Strat player I reckon Fender would have cleaned up.

mbe · June 2017

Arctic Monkeys were the last catalyst for mass electric guitar demand.

impmann · June 2017

mbe said:

Arctic Monkeys were the last catalyst for mass electric guitar demand.

Maybe in the UK.

I think the Black Keys influence in the US has affected vintage guitars more than the Arctics affected new guitar sales.

guitars4you · June 2017

good comments above @impmann ;

I agree about venues to play is an issue and I dare say many of us have found gigging was a good way to get the girls and it has had an impact on wanting to play

As for Guitar Centre - I think we've been waiting for The Woolworths or Tower Records moment now for a while and as and when it happens then it will seriously hurt many major brands - this is the latest blog https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/guitar-center-debt-hits-sour-note-as-bonds-hover-near-new-lows - But financial experts like Eric Garland have commented about this in the past http://www.ericgarland.co/2015/02/03/end-guitar-center/ - Bigger companies then GC have disappeared for various reasons

Hoof · June 2017

guitars4you said:

Nothing new in there that has not been spoken about before - Either on FB or elsewhere - But a fresh update on some financial figures - The issue is not really what the big companies are making, be it something new, old school or tech orientated as they are just trying to hang on to market that they have - The big issue and this is now been going on for a few years is there has not been a major guitar based craze for a number of years - Be it solo artist or band - Think what made you want to pick up a guitar and play and that initial interest does generally not come from the artists that you then move onto once you've progressed a bit - ie the likes of Satriani and Vai, or Ford and Carlton do not stimulate initial interest in wanting to make you play - Grunge did - Indie did - Punk did - Brit Pop did - New Wave did etc

Yes there are still some new stars like Ed Sheeran but I'm not picking up the same vibe of him influencing potential new buyers like Oasis did 20/25 years ago - Yes there are small almost under ground bands creating a stir, but not main stream like before - Blame X Factor, record companies, media channels or what ever you want to but the bottom line is guitar based bands today are not main stream enough to create the next generation of customers - And this trend has continued now for over 10 years

Even 50 years ago - Today we talk about the influence The Beano album had on some guitar players, yet at the time this was an under ground album compared to the main stream influence of The Beatles, The Stones, The Animals and all the other pop based acts - The charts was full of guitar based bands - Look at today's charts and listen today's radio channels and the guitar is not the influence it was - I'm not saying the guitar is dead but it is on a downward trend and only the likes of another Kurt Cobain will breathe new live into it

And that's why the article states that Taylor Swift is the most influential guitarist around now. Ed Sheeran's important too, even if the guitar features less and less on his more recent works. The pop charts will always lead the trends and draw on the new players of the future. I've played in doom metal, stoner rock, garage punk and noise bands but I got into the guitar because Nirvana, Metallica, EMF and Ned's Atomic Dustbin etc were in the charts when I was a teen.

I do wonder if the teaching methods around these days (School of Rock, Guitar Pro, a bottomless well of youtube teachers) is really that much of a good thing for music as a whole. Kids are gaining very strong technical abilities and being taught the 'right' way of doing things but I'm pretty sure this will not give rise to a new Sonic Youth, Napalm Death or Ramones. I think a lot of interesting players styles develop before they can really play. A few quirks or stumbles across something unique but cool while figuring out for yourself with little guidance can be what gives a player their style. By the time these kids can play all opportunities for really developing a unique style are pretty much gone.

There's some incredible guitar music around these days but things have been taken to extremes and it means the great stuff doesn't worry the pop charts and doesn't make kids want a guitar. I think the last time it really happened was Nu-Metal. It was fresh, loud, had broad appeal and made kids want to jump around, but it was accessible for a new player to learn a few of the riffs.

People might think of bands like the Foo Fighters, Queens of The Stone Age, Muse or Mastodon as the current generation of guitar heroes. They're old, certainly to a teenage kid who's looking for an outlet to his/her angst. I see a lot of kids getting into playing through their guitar playing dads but I think they have too much guidance/interference. That kid will not inspire his generation by learning how to play Dakota by the Stereophonics.

Kids also like people who sing about things they're interested in or feel ie: shagging, getting wasted and feeling misunderstood. In simple terms too. What guitar acts sing about stuff like that?

guitars4you · June 2017

mbe said:

Arctic Monkeys were the last catalyst for mass electric guitar demand.

I think you are right and I nearly mentioned them as an influence after Nirvana and Oasis but not sure if they are just a late addition to that craze as against leading the next generation to a new trend of bands hitting the air waves and media channels

Not sure if it is valid but someone once said if Tesco's or Sainsbury's aren't selling your album then you are not mainstream

Ravenous · June 2017

crunchman said:

@Ravenous - PRS haven't changed ownership either.

I know the articles are about electrics but Martin are still in the hands of the Martin family. Taylor are still run by Bob Taylor.

Martin are a good mention - a company that's still what it was (still owned by people who care about guitar... I think).

I didn't count PRS in my mention, simply because the founder still works there - we'll know more about their future when he decides to retire and who continues the brand. He still clearly has lead in his pencil right now.

My main thought on this topic though: Fender and Gibson are not what they were 30 years ago (look who's talking!) If both companies died tomorrow without trace, and nobody even bothered to buy the brands and manufacture those headstocks, would it really hurt music in any way? No.

roberty · June 2017

mellowsun said:

Is it just me or is Vernon Reid's tone on the accompanying video really terrible?

It's definitely not you...

guitars4you · June 2017

An additional comment in that if the big manufactures did not make a new guitar for 12-24 months there will be no shortage of guitars to buy, be it in store, forums or e-bay - There is a flood of guitars on the market today and this has an impact on the new builders - The figures in that article are a bit distorted about a decline from 1.5 to 1 million as that is for new sales only and does not show the size of the used market

I would also like to add that in many ways today is the golden era of guitar building - From £100 to 10K or whatever, it has never been this good across the whole spectrum of big brands to small luthiers - Granted there are some good old vintage guitars but there was some pure crap made in the 50's and 60's as well

Hoof · June 2017

roberty said:

mellowsun said:

Is it just me or is Vernon Reid's tone on the accompanying video really terrible?

It's definitely not you...

I've seen a few videos of his playing where I thought the same. There seems to be more noise than notes.

Sassafras · June 2017

Maybe if television featured more guitar based music it might catch on a bit more in the same way everyone buys tennis rackets and all the gear when Wimbledon is televised, or when Bradley Wiggins came along everyone rushed out to buy bicycles.

DulcetJones · June 2017

I've seen the guitars popularity go up and down a few times in my life, everytime someone says it's all over for the guitar a new artist comes out of the blue and brings it back. Mark Knopfler did it, Jack White, and a curious phenom in the 80's that pushed acoustic guitar way up was the emergence of the Gipsy Kings. At the moment the blues is the biggest thing going here in Canada as far as guitar is concerned. I'm not sure there is an artist driving it this time though, it seems to be more a case that people can get together with strangers and find common ground playing the blues.

mudslide73 · June 2017

An act or scene with low technical levels (punk/grunge/oasis) or movie (Sch of Rock, RockDog etc.) is what will do it. Maybe a new visionary on the instrument is a ship that's sailed forever but maybe it could happen again... Paganini did exist before Hendrix.

underdog · June 2017

Is it also that guitars on music now is not always recognisable as a guitar? As an example, someone mentioned that Ed Sheeran new stuff features less guitar now, but I'm not sure it does. It features less strummed songs but most of the noises heard are loops of the guitar playing drums or other percussive sounds, watch him live and he builds the loops it's fascinating to see.

However it does mean the casual listener doesn't associate it with being a guitar. It's one of the reasons I never really got in to learning Rage Against the Machine songs, while I loved the music the guitars often weren't making guitar sounds.

Whitecat · June 2017

Sassafras said:

Maybe if television featured more guitar based music it might catch on a bit more in the same way everyone buys tennis rackets and all the gear when Wimbledon is televised, or when Bradley Wiggins came along everyone rushed out to buy bicycles.

There's a f*ckload of music on TV at the moment in the UK, it's festival season... if that doesn't spark something, nothing will. Especially since the Glastonbury headliners are all "guitar artists" of three very different types.

ESBlonde · June 2017

I think we in the west have had our bloom period and probably the guitar has too, think back 75 years and every 4th house had a piano or someone with a squeeze box. Gibson made thier reputation on banjos and ukuleles and the early electrics were hawian/slide based (hense the Gibson ES range named because it's Electric and played held in the Spanish style not laid on the lap).
The real trick for the US/western makers is to develop the chinese market and sell into them as a premium product for the future. However I suspect they have other trends in mind.
It's not over yet but as the Baby boomers realise they have retired owning 6 expensive guitars (or die leaving the widows doing it) and try to sell them, the market will flood and the buyers will shrink. It's happened with antique trends, classic cars etc. and guitars will be soon(ish).

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Washington Post: "The slow, secret death of the six-string electric"

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