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As for market timing, yes of course sell at the top buy at the bottom is the ideal but it's impossible to do reliably, consistently, month by month, year in year out. It's been easy to see this year due to a once in a decade catalyst event and it's easy to make money on a big crash rebound like we have seen after the February drop, it won't be so easy to spot going forward and I would say is a far higher risk strategy than holding some carefully selected US stocks in a diversified buy and hold portfolio or having a sensible percentage of a portfolio allocated to a US index.
Not yet. The S&P committee have set a date of 21st December but are discussing with investors on how to best incorporate Tesla and may do it in stages as there is an estimated $35BN of Tesla shares needed to be purchased by index tracker funds once they they are in the index, they will also need to sell off some of the rest of the companies in the index to rebalance.
he's now living as a tax exile, sitting on a pile of cash
The take away quote, "its expensive on what we know, and cheap on what we don't".
Stock price up another 12% today.
I'm invested via my stake in the Baillie Gifford American fund who own a lot of Tesla stock and, since June this year, they they are also now 2% of Dow Jones Islamic Global Market Titans Index fund I hold.
The Tesla stock price isn't going to be boring for the next month or so that's for sure, I'm expecting some volatility!
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000002NAB&tab=13
http://newsletters.advfn.com/deepvalueshares/2020/09/02/james-montier-s-thoughts-on-the-rise-of-the-us-market
here's a quote from a recent one, called "James Montier’s thoughts on the rise of the US market
PUBLISHED: 02 Sep 2020 "
lots more to read, and to finishI tell you this stuff because when my pension funds dropped 50% in 2008, I felt very sick. I would not like anyone to have that happen.
All funds holding stocks/equities went down up to 50% in the 2008 crash but the majority recovered in 12-24 months.
I was down £70K earlier this year but it's all back now, plus.
your favourite Canadian thinks that the market "must" go up again. Why is
One theory is that the US is becoming "Japanified"
This is a widely-held belief
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375527-japanification-of-united-states-is-complete
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/summers-says-u-s-economy-now-confronts-japanification
https://www.capitalgroup.com/institutional/insights/articles/japanification.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-a-japanification-of-the-us-would-look-like-2019-12-09
etc
so
take a look at this chart
The Nikkei peaked in 1990 at 39k
It gradually went down to below 8k in 2004, that's more than an 80% drop
now it's near 26k
So that's a 30 year wait to lose only 35% of your money
No gains, no averaging up
Tell me why that "can't happen" in the US
Sounds to me like you bottled it and cashed out in the dip in 2008 and now live in fear. Millions and millions of people were invested in 2008 in mutual funds, as was I, and as I keep saying when the market crashes the best course of action is to do nothing and leave your portfolio alone, keep paying in regularly and get the benefit of dollar cost averaging.
Of course the US market can fall into slow decline but so can any market, anywhere. You have to take risk but being diversified in different sectors and markets helps limit the risk. It's not rocket surgery. It just adds to Ben Felix's assertion that investing in the Global Index is the best strategy.
Its not quite the way I invest but I am in 2 global funds, 1 small holding in a US only fund that holds 40 companies and a large chunk in UK small companies fund that holds about 50 companies. The global funds hold a sizeable percentage of US stocks as that's how the world market is shaped.
You clearly take a different path and strategy. That's your choice. I'm perfectly comfortable with mine, it's been road tested by millions of people worldwide.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/205192-learning-from-nikkei-monthly-moving-averages
Another one to watch which is having a comeback based mainly on speculation is bitcoin. I think Paypal are now accepting transactions with bitcoin, as well as some other apps. The derivatives market for bitcoin is also growing.
"From a practical point of view, Tesla does not have enough European presence which means they are likely to run into all sorts of problems with transporting their wares and with tariffs.Moreover, if you have an accident in a BMW, the dealership up the road can get you the replacement parts you need very quickly. It might take Tesla months."
The author appears to have ignored the fact that construction of the Tesla Berlin Gigactory is steaming ahead at an incredibly fast rate and it will service European production: