The good, the bad, and the ugly

HAL9000

A Mexican standoff...

The ugly, who is the worst shot, has a one in three chance of hitting his target.
The bad has a two in three chance of hitting his target.
The good is 100% accurate.

Starting with the ugly, the three take it in turns to take a shot until only one man is left standing.

What is the ugly's best strategy if he wants to stay alive?

starwarsnosebleed

Maybe shoot the gun out of 'good's hand?

jellyroll

Run like f@ck

Heartfeltdawn

Vote Remain. 

Sporky

Don't shoot in the first round. The good will kill the bad, the bad may kill the good, but if he kills either of them he's in trouble. Second round he may or may not need to shoot at the bad.

TTony

HAL9000 said:

Starting with the ugly, the three take it in turns to take a shot until only one man is left standing.

What is the ugly's best strategy if he wants to stay alive?

Don't take your turn.

richardhomer

Is this thread about three-piece bands?

My money's on Sting having 'his people' 'take out' Andy and Stewart....

VimFuego

shoot himself. he has a good chance of missing.

HAL9000

Sporky said:

Don't shoot in the first round. The good will kill the bad, the bad may kill the good, but if he kills either of them he's in trouble. Second round he may or may not need to shoot at the bad.

That's pretty much it. Ugly needs to fire in the air since taking out either of the other two dramatically  increases the odds against him. Have a wis. (Surprisingly, if you work through all the permutations it's the best shot who has the lowest chance of survival.)

Evilmags

Sporky said:

Don't shoot in the first round. The good will kill the bad, the bad may kill the good, but if he kills either of them he's in trouble. Second round he may or may not need 

Thus is the right answer. Probably aim at the good while he is killing the bad. 

starwarsnosebleed

@HAL9000 Will you let us know who wins?

octatonic

This is game theory- the solution is to shoot high into the air, with no hope of hitting anyone thus taking yourself out of the equation- the other two will fight it out themselves.

ICBM

richardhomer said:

Is this thread about three-piece bands?

My money's on Sting having 'his people' 'take out' Andy and Stewart....

But Stewart's 'people' - or at least his dad's - were the CIA, so that may not work out too well. Or quite well, depending on your view of Sting.

HAL9000

starwarsnosebleed said:

@HAL9000 Will you let us know who wins?

Here's an analysis of the possible outcomes...

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/687272/a-three-way-duel-probability-puzzle

roundthebend

Yeah, I just don't think either of these guys should be shooting their guns at all.....never mind aiming at people......and especially if you're a crap shot.

Peace.

Jeremiah

Jesus would shoot them all first.

TheBlueWolf

Chuck Norris.

He'd kill them all just by turning up.

PolarityMan

Shoot himself in the shoulder and play dead.

HAL9000

PolarityMan said:

Shoot himself in the shoulder and play dead.

Odds are he'd miss though ;-)