The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

Sporky

Emp_Fab said:

There needs to be a test before anyone gets handed a ballot paper...

1. Is Scooby Doo a real dog?
2. Describe why the Sun sets.
3. Who lives at 11 Downing St and what is their job?
4. Name the leaders of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties.

That's me out then. Do the Lib Dems actually have a leader?

fields5069

May is incredibly good at not answering questions.

Tavernor

Are people expecting a Corbyn win now do you think? Polls aside, gut feelings.

mellowsun

Tavernor said:

Are people expecting a Corbyn win now do you think? Polls aside, gut feelings.

If enough young people get out to vote, it's possible.

Although, judging by the #bbcqt audience last night, there's still a lot of purple-faced angry people who want to vote for whoever will fire off nukes.

Fretwired

Tavernor said:

Are people expecting a Corbyn win now do you think? Polls aside, gut feelings.

If the polls are to be believed I'd go hung parliament. Since the Tories are out numbered it means Corbyn is the likely next PM. The polls could be pants but you sense from the TV, press and online that the momentum is with Corbyn.

ICBM

Tavernor said:

Are people expecting a Corbyn win now do you think? Polls aside, gut feelings.

No. I expect enough turkeys will vote for Christmas that the Tories will win, despite May's disastrous campaign and clear lack of judgement or fitness for leadership.

Emp_Fab

Gut feeling?  No.  Labour won't win.  For the simple reason that I want them to, and when it comes to elections, whoever I'm rooting for is guaranteed to lose.  Also, as someone said earlier, there are a lot of closet Tories around.  They want to appear kind, considerate and socially inclusive so they don't give pollsters the truth until they get in the ballot box and their inner Mr Burns takes over.

ThePrettyDamned

I don't think labour will do it. 

I think, the best case, is Tories losing seats. Anything that's not a landslide is a win imo - the election was a clever stunt for May to try to guarantee power for herself and her party for another 5 years with a landslide majority. 

Any landslide Parliament in our system is a bad thing imo - a strong opposition (that is also reasonable and capable of seeing that good policies can come from parties other than their own) is important I think. Hopefully, if nothing else, it'll get the Labour party a stronger sense of togetherness. 

You never know though. A hung Parliament would be an interesting thing to happen. Not sure if good or bad. 

Drew_TNBD

My gut feeling is that Labour will win. I'm even thinking of going back on my statement that I wouldn't vote for them.

ICBM

One consequence of a hung parliament would be the burying of the Scottish independence question for five years. If he's PM of a minority government with the Tories the larger party, Corbyn could not allow Scotland to become independent because that would instantly give the Tories power. But he may not have to - he could allow Sturgeon to have her referendum, safe in the knowledge that she won't if the result of winning would be to put the Tories back in south of the border and make any independence settlement less favourable. And he knows that Sturgeon will never support May, so he could call her bluff either way.

ToneControl

Tavernor said:

Slightly flawed reasoning but does agree with my view nukes will be used by someone in our lifetime. Again, very much countering my own argument.

I believe that someone will let one off

here's my thoughts:

Firstly, people need to understand the way that the knowledge to produce a bomb has been spread: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan#Proliferation_of_URENCO_technology
The fact that even the destitute North Korea can build one says it all

Secondly, people need to stop thinking about complex missile tech created by western countries
A functional makeshift bomb could easily be put on a small boat and sailed up to a major coastal city

If non-state groups did this, I assume the missiles owned by the US, UK, France, etc would be hard to use, unless the group was something like IS/Daesh and held large areas of territory

If Daesh let off a bomb on the Thames 2 years ago, would we have nuked Raqqa? It would follow the same rationale as the US nuking Japan surely?

breakstuff

Fretwired said:

Apparently she was a plant - come the end of the debate she walked off behind Corbyn and joined the campaign team in the green room and was seen on Newsnight when Emily Wightlesswas interviewing Labour politicians.

If true,and I've no reason to doubt it isn't,surely someone a bit less 'conspicuous' would have been more appropriate?

Heartfeltdawn

Drew_TNBD said:

My gut feeling is that Labour will win. I'm even thinking of going back on my statement that I wouldn't vote for them.

https://mynameisjoecortina.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/imageshack-share-photos-pictures-free-image-hosting-free-video-hosting-image-hosting-video-hosting-photo-image-hosting-site-video-hosting-site.jpg

Heartfeltdawn

breakstuff said:

Fretwired said:

Apparently she was a plant - come the end of the debate she walked off behind Corbyn and joined the campaign team in the green room and was seen on Newsnight when Emily Wightlesswas interviewing Labour politicians.

If true,and I've no reason to doubt it isn't,surely someone a bit less 'conspicuous' would have been more appropriate?

That's the cunning trick. Your focus is only on the woman, thus totally disregarding the two Momentum activists hidden in her chin pouch. 

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

breakstuff said:

Fretwired said:

Apparently she was a plant - come the end of the debate she walked off behind Corbyn and joined the campaign team in the green room and was seen on Newsnight when Emily Wightlesswas interviewing Labour politicians.

If true,and I've no reason to doubt it isn't,surely someone a bit less 'conspicuous' would have been more appropriate?

That's the cunning trick. Your focus is only on the woman, thus totally disregarding the two Momentum activists hidden in her chin pouch. 

:-)

It's OK she looked scared by all the wack jobs who wanted to start a nuclear war ... :-)

rocktron

Tavernor said:

Are people expecting a Corbyn win now do you think? Polls aside, gut feelings.

It would appear that there are many forumites willing Corbyn to win, so please don’t shoot me for what I type here. I really don’t want to alienate anyone, and it is the main reason I try to refrain from commenting on these threads. I am only responding to the above question on how I perceive the election would play out. I do not wish to lose friends over an General Election. After all, when it is over, we all have to go back to lead our normal selves.

ANSWER:-

I don’t think so.

Corbyn was regarded as a disaster for becoming the leader of the Labour Party. Many former experienced members of the Shadow Cabinet left their positions. Labour Party supporters deserted the party, though some may be returning. Even Neil Kinnock said that he did not expect to see a Labour Government in his lifetime.  

The public are not about to be swayed by Corbyn’s sudden rise in popularity after being viewed, throughout his political career, as a protest politician and not a leader. They are not about to hand him the keys to No. 10.

The public do not want to see this country held to ransom again by the Unions, who got Corbyn to where he is.

The public are not fools. They are aware that the NHS is a blackhole devouring any amount of money which is thrown at it, and will continue to do so irrespective of which government is in power. So, they won’t see Corbyn as the saviour of the NHS.

A great many people, even Labour supporters, are disgruntled at uncontrolled immigration, and they see Labour as opening the floodgates to more mass immigration again, to the detriment of their core supporters in favour of foreigners.

I viewed the two leaders’ performance on Question Time as a Heavyweight Title Boxing  Match. The challenger has to be seen to wrest the title away with a very strong performance, and even a knockout. The red and blue corner would pampazette around the ring that their man won. The fact is neither man/woman landed a knockout blow, and the judges’ decisions tend to go with the champion.

Corbyn has a long way to go to prove to the people that he is the new messiah to lead this country. The people do not see Corbyn and his team as being capable of negotiating a good Brexit deal with the EU for Britain. Keith Starmier was urging the PM to agree the rights of EU citizens in the UK first, and forgot to mention the rights of UK citizens in the EU. But, the people haven’t forgotten that. Many people see Diane Abbott, the prospective Home Secretary, as a joke.

The poor are not going to be made rich by making the rich poor. Buying votes from prospective students may work up to a point, but a report stated that thousands of youngsters had still not registered to vote up to a few hours before registration closed. 

I haven’t traveled up and down the country canvassing people for their views on this election. Like most people, I look at news reports, and the pollsters who have the tools to predict a result – and even they get it wrong. My response is based on talking to people who I know locally, and at work. Most do not think Corbyn will win.

Come June 9th, we'll find out.   .

Fretwired

ToneControl said:

Tavernor said:

Slightly flawed reasoning but does agree with my view nukes will be used by someone in our lifetime. Again, very much countering my own argument.

I believe that someone will let one off

here's my thoughts:

Firstly, people need to understand the way that the knowledge to produce a bomb has been spread: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan#Proliferation_of_URENCO_technology
The fact that even the destitute North Korea can build one says it all

Secondly, people need to stop thinking about complex missile tech created by western countries
A functional makeshift bomb could easily be put on a small boat and sailed up to a major coastal city

If non-state groups did this, I assume the missiles owned by the US, UK, France, etc would be hard to use, unless the group was something like IS/Daesh and held large areas of territory

If Daesh let off a bomb on the Thames 2 years ago, would we have nuked Raqqa? It would follow the same rationale as the US nuking Japan surely?

Your point is valid. |

However, forget nukes .. they are hard to make and hard to get into the UK. IS and co are more into chemical warfare. Just look at all our unguarded reservoirs or busy cities that could easily be attacked by a chemical bomb.

It highlights we need to spend more on conventional defence and not Trident.

ThePrettyDamned

Drew_TNBD said:

My gut feeling is that Labour will win. I'm even thinking of going back on my statement that I wouldn't vote for them.

I came into this feeling like I'd spoil my ballot, but I know who I'm voting for now. 

Which is nice. I can't agree with everything, and everyone, in the party but I feel strong enough for some of it that I'd rather them than others. 

Sadly, my vote will mean nothing in this consituency. But it is what it is. 

Nitefly

Blimey, @rocktron - have you been looking inside my head? That's pretty much exactly how I see it!

ToneControl

Fretwired said:

ToneControl said:

Tavernor said:

Slightly flawed reasoning but does agree with my view nukes will be used by someone in our lifetime. Again, very much countering my own argument.

I believe that someone will let one off

here's my thoughts:

Firstly, people need to understand the way that the knowledge to produce a bomb has been spread: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan#Proliferation_of_URENCO_technology
The fact that even the destitute North Korea can build one says it all

Secondly, people need to stop thinking about complex missile tech created by western countries
A functional makeshift bomb could easily be put on a small boat and sailed up to a major coastal city

If non-state groups did this, I assume the missiles owned by the US, UK, France, etc would be hard to use, unless the group was something like IS/Daesh and held large areas of territory

If Daesh let off a bomb on the Thames 2 years ago, would we have nuked Raqqa? It would follow the same rationale as the US nuking Japan surely?

Your point is valid. |

However, forget nukes .. they are hard to make and hard to get into the UK. IS and co are more into chemical warfare. Just look at all our unguarded reservoirs or busy cities that could easily be attacked by a chemical bomb.

It highlights we need to spend more on conventional defence and not Trident.

you don't have to get it into the UK, just sail it a bit into the Mersey estuary, the Solent, the Edinburgh coast, Aberdeen, Tynemouth