The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

Heartfeltdawn

Drew_TNBD said:

I am genuinely frightened for free speech and free expression in this country. Okay we don't have freedom of speech enshrined in our laws, which is a problem, but we do have a culture of speaking our mind. It's slowly being eroded by people who want to put 'phobia' or 'ism' on the end of everything.

The other side of that is that there's large amount of people who demand freedom of speech but who aren't responsible enough to utilise that freedom in a constructive intelligent way. So you end up with an oversensitive bunch on one side and a stupid bunch on the other. Both side whine a lot and don't do much to further their cases. 

Emp_Fab

Go where the money is for a realistic prediction.  Oddschecker is showing 1/9 for a Tory win and 7/1 for Labour.  That's 63 times more likely for a Tory win.  Picture a 64 sided die with only one side red and the rest of it blue.  That's how confident the bookies are.

Sporky

Emp_Fab said:

Oddschecker is showing 1/9 for a Tory win and 7/1 for Labour.  That's 63 times more likely for a Tory win.  

That's not quite how odds work.

Emp_Fab

Isn't it?  What have I got wrong on my Roman abacus ?  If I put nine quid on the Tories to win, I'll get a quid in winnings.  If I do the same with Labour, I'll win sixty three quid.  Doesn't that translate into the bookies thinking one is sixty three times more likely?

Budgie

The odds give the probability of a May victory at 90% with odds of 1/9. The chances of it being a Corbyn victory would be at 12.5% at 7/1

Emp_Fab

Aha...  I have googled and now understand.  I correct my figure to 7.2 times more likely.  Which is still a shitload more than the polls would suggest.

John_P

Emp_Fab said:

Aha...  I have googled and now understand.  I correct my figure to 7.2 times more likely.  Which is still a shitload more than the polls would suggest.

Unfortunately our system of fptp in each constituency could lead to a result like the US had where the most votes doesn't necessarily mean a win and labour (as I understand it) have concentrated on holding seats rather than trying to win new seats.  
As a possible labour victory starts to become more of a possibility as more of the public seem to be warming to JC it might be too late to win enough seats and I can't see the polls being sophisticated enough to track seats vs overall votes. 
It will be interesting to see how the tragic events of last night affect things.  

I read somewhere that the current arrangement of constituencies suits the tories - anyone know if there is any truth in that?

octatonic

Brick Lane now:

Sporky

Emp_Fab said: 

Aha...  I have googled and now understand.  I correct my figure to 7.2 times more likely.  Which is still a shitload more than the polls would suggest.

Indeed.

But you know what happens when my pedantry gets set off.

Fretwired

Drew_TNBD said:

Jalapeno said:

Amazed at the constant vitiriol poured on anyone who doesn't follow left wing orthodoxy, this is very unpleasant.  How is any different from casual racism - demonising whole sections of the country. Heaven help us all from the think speak that is coming if Jezza pulls it off. It is genuinely frightening.

I am genuinely frightened for free speech and free expression in this country. Okay we don't have freedom of speech enshrined in our laws, which is a problem, but we do have a culture of speaking our mind. It's slowly being eroded by people who want to put 'phobia' or 'ism' on the end of everything.

It's genuinely why I have been reluctant to vote Labour - too much emphasis on 'social justice' which if you follow that stuff online is most often a cover for 'we get to be bigots, but you don't' type of mentality.

I don't remember EVER being as torn on who to vote for in any other election. Shambles.

Theresa May makes fun of the fact Diane Abbott can't add up and wants to scrap the national DNA database and Paul Mason and Diane Abbott call her a racist. This has traction on Facebook and Twitter .. absurd.

You can't say something that might upset people - we can no longer offend people, especially minorities or feminists - ask Tim Hunt who was subjected to a public witch hunt. The list of what constitutes a minority has grown. Safe spaces are becoming common in schools, and my niece tells me (she's a school teacher) that she's been advised not to challenge kids on their views in class. Talk to them offline but don't be pushy. Her school also has a safe room for pupils and it gets used. I asked what would happen if she had a creationist in class - apparently she has to respect their views and move on. In my day I'd have got a detention and a blackboard rubber thrown at me for being stupid.

ToneControl

ICBM said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

And why you have shy Labour voters too, the former Blairites who still have their left wing beliefs but stay quiet because they get vilified by the shouty rabble.

I actually wonder if there may be a specifically 'shy Corbyn' vote this time too - people who do genuinely support his more socialist approach but are wary of admitting it for fear of being labelled as loony lefties.

The more they've seen of him, the more people have realised that Corbyn is actually quite rational and sensible, which may explain their greater willingness to admit they'll vote for him.

Fretwired said:

Update: Apparently the guy who quizzed Corbyn on zero hours contracts is wealthy ex-public school boy.

Really?! I'm shocked!!  

Disclaimer: although I am not wealthy, I am an ex-public school boy...

There's another category: reluctant Labour voters
My vote is a not-shy anti-Corbyn labour vote:
I have voted for Labour, yet hoping they don't win across the country, because I want JC, Abbot and McDonnell to piss off and take Momentum with them

I'm not aware of any UK polls that predicted a higher conservative lead than actually carried through into the election

Fretwired

octatonic said:

Brick Lane now:

Interesting .. I wonder what would happen if one was done with Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan, Chuka Umunna, Priti Patel and Sajid Javid? I think I know the answer ...

Myranda

Fretwired said:

octatonic said:

Brick Lane now:

Interesting .. I wonder what would happen if one was done with Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan, Chuka Umunna, Priti Patel and Sajid Javid? I think I know the answer ...

Fairly sure that even a simulated naked Diane Abbot could result in a wave of nausea that would seem like a norrovirus outbreak

capo4th

Fretwired said:

octatonic said:

Brick Lane now:

Interesting .. I wonder what would happen if one was done with Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan, Chuka Umunna, Priti Patel and Sajid Javid? I think I know the answer ...

We couldn't possibly put up a poster and do that with those people as that would be racist Islamaphobia and we would all be doomed

thomasw88

What's the undercurrent of the above posts?

 this is an official labour campaign poster or a  localised flyposter by someone/people??

 why you not doing the same at the  tory campaign with dark ads/ etc???

thomasw88

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2017-06-05/london-bridge-attack-jeremy-corbyn-says-britain-needs-to-have-difficult-talks-with-saudi-arabia/1676400

capo4th

thomasw88 said:

What's the undercurrent of the above posts?

 this is an official labour campaign poster or a  localised flyposter by someone/people??

 why you not doing the same at the  tory campaign with dark ads/ etc???

I think this shows the desperation Labour supporters will stretch to in order to win a vote.

The pics are highly amusing I would have liked to have seen Jezza in some kind of red leather crotchless outfit with a snooker ball mouth gag and a bull whip.

Poor old Labour they obviously believe that sex sells (buys votes)

Jeremy will be looking for a new job on Friday. He will probably have to resort to writing a book my time as ineffectual Leader of the Labour Party.

Not seen much mention of the garden tax on here. Anyone who owns land over 200m square which is a large garden will be getting clobbered. Diane has not quite worked out how to pay for the tape measures yet but she is working on it and will have the numbers on Thursday morning. 

Legionreturns

How ineffectual can he be? I mean, he's only closed a 20 point gap in a few short weeks. Rubbish! 

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

octatonic said:

Brick Lane now:

Interesting .. I wonder what would happen if one was done with Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan, Chuka Umunna, Priti Patel and Sajid Javid? I think I know the answer ...

If the poster was Abbott, you'd need a billboard rather than a phone box. Her hourly prices would also vary by the minute. 

Heartfeltdawn

capo4th said:

I think this shows the desperation Labour supporters will stretch to in order to win a vote.

The pics are highly amusing I would have liked to have seen Jezza in some kind of red leather crotchless outfit with a snooker ball mouth gag and a bull whip.

Poor old Labour they obviously believe that sex sells (buys votes)

Jeremy will be looking for a new job on Friday. He will probably have to resort to writing a book my time as ineffectual Leader of the Labour Party.

Still rather less desperate looking than Conservative newspapers last time out slandering the dead father of the Opposition leader.