The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

holnrew

ICBM said:

crunchman said:

It will also depend on whether there is a second Independence referendum in Scotland, and what the result of it is.  Without Scottish MPs, the Tories would be in power for a generation without a major change in the political landscape.

This is one of the biggest political myths. The vote in Scotland almost never makes any difference to who forms the government in Westminster - just three times since WWII (1964, 1974 and 2010). The swing from Tory to Labour or vice versa which changes the government is down to what happens in England.

It affects the majority though, and how much power the government has

Heartfeltdawn

Evilmags said:

FelineGuitars said:

I reckon we've got another 10+ years of the Tories by which time the country will be unrecognisable. 

It won't be good for anyone but top earners I bet.

It seemed obvious as soon as Corbyn became leader. Incompetence, IRA support, antisemitism,  it's all there and waiting to be explored by Lynton Crosby. 

I hope they don't take that approach because they really don't need to do so. Another campaign fought in the same manner that they treated Milliband will do nothing to shake off the 'nasty old Tory image'.If the intention is to take Labour seats in the North in order to give themselves a greater majority for the reasons I mentioned earlier, then running a campaign where you focus on Jezza the Jew hating fool isn't really extolling your own virtues. Corbyn makes enough mistakes to not require any hatchet campaign from Crosby. 

Realistically this is a Northern election. Trump's success and Clinton's failure in the Rust Belt shows exactly where May needs to focus. Fuck London, fuck the cities like Bristol and Liverpool, get out there and focus on the Midlands and the North. 

RandallFlagg

Nitefly said:

TheBigDipper said:

Nitefly said:

I imagine a great many sitting Labour MPs are getting a tad twitchy about selection committees...

I've read that any sitting Labour MP will be automatically reselected as the candidate for this election. To be confirmed later on today. 

Ah yes, just read that.  Sighs of relief all round   I think Leigh will probably need to select a new candidate though, as the sitting member (Andy Burnham) is hot favourite for the Manchester Mayoral elections to be held on 4th May.

I've also just read that the SNP MPs are going to abstain - that's representing your constituency right enough!

Also 2 SNP members are currently suspended, so may not be able to stand this time.

I can't believe Sturgeon, gobbing off at every opportunity to be critical of May's government but calls to abstain on the vote for a General Election. I'm sick of the winging whining rhetoric, lets see what the people decide and if SNP maintain majority in Scotland based on her relentless campaigning to remain in EU and have an independent Scotland I would give it to her, take your Scottish Independence and get on with it and shut up whining.

professorben

VimFuego said:

Evilmags said:

randella said:

Fretwired said:

Evilmags said:

As for Tim Farron he just made himself a big gay spike to sit on. 

An illiberal leader of what is supposed to be a liberal party. He's been trashed on Twitter.

God and politics.  Doesn't wash in this country, *always* comes back on you in the end.

The commons is a lot less secular than the general population. The guy makes Nick Clegg look like a genius. 

this always surprises me, why are so many god botherers attracted to positions of power.

Devine intervention innit. 

Ravenous

Let's have some good news.  George Osborne is quitting as MP

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39643347

Fretwired

ICBM said:

crunchman said:

It will also depend on whether there is a second Independence referendum in Scotland, and what the result of it is.  Without Scottish MPs, the Tories would be in power for a generation without a major change in the political landscape.

This is one of the biggest political myths. The vote in Scotland almost never makes any difference to who forms the government in Westminster - just three times since WWII (1964, 1974 and 2010). The swing from Tory to Labour or vice versa which changes the government is down to what happens in England.

Try telling that to English university students who found themself paying fees after Blair's 'tartan army' of Scottish MPs voted the measure through even though fees were not being charged in Scotland. Blair needed Scots MPs to support him a few times on English only business.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/3432767.stm

crunchman

ICBM said:

crunchman said:

It will also depend on whether there is a second Independence referendum in Scotland, and what the result of it is.  Without Scottish MPs, the Tories would be in power for a generation without a major change in the political landscape.

This is one of the biggest political myths. The vote in Scotland almost never makes any difference to who forms the government in Westminster - just three times since WWII (1964, 1974 and 2010). The swing from Tory to Labour or vice versa which changes the government is down to what happens in England.

You say it's only happened 3 times but look at 2010.  Tories 306 seats out of 650 and you end up with a coalition.  Without the Scottish MPs they have 305 out of 591 and have a decent working majority - especially as the Northern Ireland Unionist parties normally vote with them.

It's the knock on effects as well.  Without that 2010 coalition the Libdems don't get wiped out in 2015.  They have a much bigger selection of MPs to choose a leader from (or Clegg is still there) so the whole political landscape looks different.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Evilmags said:

Did he invite political representatives of a terror group to parliament shortly after they had bombed the government of the day.

To be fair, the same government was in secret talks with the same terrorist group before and after the bombing. While Thatcher was saying "we will never negotiate with terrorists", they were doing it.

Corbyn was just less deceitful about it.

Deceitful? Oh come on. Had Thatcher said "we're negotiating with the IRA" the press would have a field day and crucified her. Could you imagine the front page of the Sun. The IRA wouldn't have been too happy either - they would have got flak from their own supporters. Talks like this are always kept secret to protect both parties.

Corbyn called them 'freedom fighters' and supported their cause.

professorben

I've weighed up the advantages and disadvantages of either supporting the current leader who had made her position by political manoeuvre and backstabbing, or the party of the north who are currently in disarray and without a clear leader. 

I'm voting for change 

I'm voting Targaryen. 

ICBM

crunchman said:

You say it's only happened 3 times but look at 2010.  Tories 306 seats out of 650 and you end up with a coalition.  Without the Scottish MPs they have 305 out of 591 and have a decent working majority - especially as the Northern Ireland Unionist parties normally vote with them.

It's the knock on effects as well.  Without that 2010 coalition the Libdems don't get wiped out in 2015.  They have a much bigger selection of MPs to choose a leader from (or Clegg is still there) so the whole political landscape looks different.

Yes... that's one of the ones I mentioned. I agree that things would quite likely be very different for the Lib Dems too.

ThePrettyDamned

Is there a website that does that "who should I vote for" thing, where you answer a series of questions and it points you towards the parties that best support your views? 

I was quite surprised last time I did that, I was told I was overwhelmingly green... 

marantz1300

Fretwired said:

ICBM said:

Evilmags said:

Did he invite political representatives of a terror group to parliament shortly after they had bombed the government of the day.

To be fair, the same government was in secret talks with the same terrorist group before and after the bombing. While Thatcher was saying "we will never negotiate with terrorists", they were doing it.

Corbyn was just less deceitful about it.

Deceitful? Oh come on. Had Thatcher said "we're negotiating with the IRA" the press would have a field day and crucified her. Could you imagine the front page of the Sun. The IRA wouldn't have been too happy either - they would have got flak from their own supporters. Talks like this are always kept secret to protect both parties.

Corbyn called them 'freedom fighters' and supported their cause.

Thatcher called them criminals, ignored the hunger strikers and escalated the violence to another level .

Ravenous

Corbyn called them 'freedom fighters' and supported their cause.

Thatcher called them criminals, ignored the hunger strikers and escalated the violence to another level .

I recall Mandela calling them freedom fighters too actually, if only for a short while 

(History is a funny game.)

Sambostar

Lib Dem signs are already up and out down the road. Sad.

HAL9000

And in other news...

Labour to hold election for new leader on 9th July.

holnrew

I'll be tactically voting labour for all the good it will do. I'd vote Plaid Cymru but labour were much, much closer to the Tory incumbent in 2015.

When I was in Gateshead Labour were so far ahead I could vote for whoever I wanted.

ICBM

If everyone who voted Remain just tactically votes Lib Dem it's likely to be over for May.

May says she wants it to be about Brexit - so make it.

VimFuego

ICBM said:

If everyone who voted Remain just tactically votes Lib Dem it's likely to be over for May.

May says she wants it to be about Brexit - so make it.

yup, tho the danger of this is we may get farron as PM. Not sure if that's an altogther good thing.

ICBM

VimFuego said:

yup, tho the danger of this is we may get farron as PM. Not sure if that's an altogther good thing.

Given that the alternatives are May or Corbyn... I think I could live with it. I doubt he could do any more damage.

VimFuego

ICBM said:

VimFuego said:

yup, tho the danger of this is we may get farron as PM. Not sure if that's an altogther good thing.

Given that the alternatives are May or Corbyn... I think I could live with it. I doubt he could do any more damage.

we seem to be in an odd situation that all seem suitably bad choices. And we thought the yanks had poor options.