Cruz wins, Trump loses, Hillary and Bernie virtually tie

Chalky

Trump all the way now? Something tells me Clinton will still lose to him in the endgame.

57Deluxe

Hillary Clitoron will be another Angela Merkle - the world does not need two of the same!

ICBM

Chalky said:

Trump all the way now? Something tells me Clinton will still lose to him in the endgame.

I think the same but the other way round. Trump vs. Hillary but Hillary will just edge it. They're both hated, but him probably even more than her, and by a wider range of sections of the population… pretty much all African-Americans, Hispanics and women by the sound of it. She's just hated by everyone else .

He's an interesting question - if she does win, what will Bill's title be? He won't be the First Lady, clearly! He will actually still be "Mr. President" since all former incumbents get to keep that as a form of address, but what will his official position be?

RaymondLin

I guess he will keep is Mr. president title and as an ex president, he gets briefings too so in theory he can actually get to know everything that is going on, more than any First Lady ever would. The US could sort it have 2 presidents in office, sort of, no doubt she will seeks his advice from time to time. And tbh, I like Bill as president (Monica marlaky aside) he did well.

Chalky

He does have charisma, and his redemption was helped by his response to 9/11.

ICBM

RaymondLin said:

I guess he will keep is Mr. president title and as an ex president, he gets briefings too so in theory he can actually get to know everything that is going on, more than any First Lady ever would. The US could sort it have 2 presidents in office, sort of, no doubt she will seeks his advice from time to time. And tbh, I like Bill as president (Monica marlaky aside) he did well.

So do a lot of Americans - nostaglia which could seriously help Hillary's chances - even though a good part of it was that his presidency happened to coincide with the 'peak finance' years before it all went wrong. In fact, it was Clinton who repealed the critical Glass-Steagall Act which was a major factor in opening the door for the crash that later followed - although probably not his fault personally since he would have been following the advice of his economists.

I don't care what he got up to with Monica - I don't think it had any impact on his fitness to be president at all.

Chalky

Didn't he also significantly reduce defense spending too?

Gassage

Heartfeltdawn

Chalky said:

Trump all the way now? Something tells me Clinton will still lose to him in the endgame.

There's an awful lot of reports of Republicans prepared to vote Clinton rather than Trump in a White House race. One wonders if they feel that a vote for an establishment politician of any flag is better than him. 

ICBM said:

I think the same but the other way round. Trump vs. Hillary but Hillary will just edge it. They're both hated, but him probably even more than her, and by a wider range of sections of the population… pretty much all African-Americans, Hispanics and women by the sound of it. She's just hated by everyone else .

He's an interesting question - if she does win, what will Bill's title be? He won't be the First Lady, clearly! He will actually still be "Mr. President" since all former incumbents get to keep that as a form of address, but what will his official position be?

I wouldn't say that Trump is hated by more women than Hillary. What has been seen in the exit polls is that there is a lot of working class support across the genders for Trump. Take the Massachusetts exit poll.For the Democrats, 58% of that poll were female, and 57% of them voted for Clinton. For the GOP, 48% were women and Trump got 46% of that group. His spat with Megyn Kelly was patronising but it hasn't made him look to be Mr Uber Sexist. If Clinton went for the 'Trump is a sexist pig dog' approach, then you can be sure that words about her husband would be mentioned and she's right on the back foot. 

Trump has real cross-factor support . That Mas.poll shows it. Ex military vets and no military experience people, he got 50% and 49% of those groups. Moderate to very Conservative, he was scoring around 50%. Over and under 100k per year income, same again. The main thing he has done is tap into that group with limited educational history and his approach works with them.

 

Heartfeltdawn

Best summation I've read today:

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/2/11146058/super-tuesday-results-delegates-trump-rubio

Can you imagine how America would be if Rubio got in through a behind the scenes deal? 

)

Nitefly

What I don't get is this - if the Republican grandees dislike Trump so much, how did he get into the race in the first place?  

ICBM

Nitefly said:

What I don't get is this - if the Republican grandees dislike Trump so much, how did he get into the race in the first place?  

I think as a registered Republican party member, they couldn't stop him.

I bet the Blair-Brownites in the Labour Party are asking the same thing about Jeremy Corbyn. Except that some of them actually nominated Corbyn in order to create a 'diversity of candidates' ).

Heartfeltdawn

Nitefly said:

What I don't get is this - if the Republican grandees dislike Trump so much, how did he get into the race in the first place?  

Because he could. After 2012, a lot of rejigging went on with the process. 

http://time.com/4059030/republican-primary-calendar-2016-nomination-convention/

http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/a-republican-nomination-process

Nitefly

Ah, thanks chaps - interesting.  @Heartfeltdawn - that second article in particular is very informative.

hungrymark

I'd like Trump to win the whole thing, simply because I'm curious as to what would happen. Same reason I'd like to see the UK exit the EU. I think I'm just dangerously bored of the status quo. Like the band, it's just the same chords over and over again.

Chalky

hungrymark;990848" said:

I'd like Trump to win the whole thing, simply because I'm curious as to what would happen. Same reason I'd like to see the UK exit the EU. I think I'm just dangerously bored of the status quo. Like the band, it's just the same chords over and over again.

I think your view is going to be shared by more folks this year - forget the arguments, let's try the experience.

hungrymark

Chalky;990858" said:

[quote="hungrymark;990848"]I'd like Trump to win the whole thing, simply because I'm curious as to what would happen. Same reason I'd like to see the UK exit the EU. I think I'm just dangerously bored of the status quo. Like the band, it's just the same chords over and over again.

I think your view is going to be shared by more folks this year - forget the arguments, let's try the experience.
[/quote]

Yes, I think you're right. I'm saying it tongue-in-cheek (I do intend to make an informed decision on the EU) but I suspect a lot of Trump support is just a way of sticking two fingers up at the establishment.

Heartfeltdawn

hungrymark said:

Yes, I think you're right. I'm saying it tongue-in-cheek (I do intend to make an informed decision on the EU) but I suspect a lot of Trump support is just a way of sticking two fingers up at the establishment.

Same for Sanders really. After recession, wars, terrorism, and the middle and working classes being squished, the best the establishment from each party could give us are:

-a former First Lady who spends most of her time being photographed with wealthy white feminists and poor black and Latin American people whilst her husband does things like asking for the right to speak in North Korea in exchange for large sums of cash, not to mention the proposed Congo speech in exchange for $650,000. 

-A first term senator whose time as Florida House speaker memorably featured a proposal to reduce property taxes for that middle class lot whilst raising sales tax, which proportionally affects people lower down the salary bracket far more. 

Irrespective for your political leaning, this election is characterised by some real involvement from the working class/lower income voters. They're sticking two fingers up at the establishment because the establishment has been sticking two fingers up to them for a long time. 

This is why Blair is so hopeless when he said recently that he couldn't understand why anyone would want to leave the centre ground. Another wealthy white guy who simply doesn't understand why people lower down the social ladder are fucked off.