So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

UnclePsychosis

skankdelvar said:
Anyway: were Remain scare-mongering? 
Answer: (i) No (ii) Yes and (iii) it's too early to say. 
Remain correctly identified a negative outcome. They overstated the immediate consequences. In the long-term they may be right or they may be wrong. 
Of course its too early to tell. 
Lets be precise: all of the talk was of the consequence of actually leaving. We haven't left yet and haven't even officially said we will. 

For people to be claiming "remain got it wrong, the markets are all great, bloody scaremongerers" when article 50 hasn't even been declared yet is just downright bizarre. 

skankdelvar

UnclePsychosis said:

Of course its too early to tell. 

Lets be precise: all of the talk was of the consequence of actually leaving. We haven't left yet and haven't even officially said we will. 

For people to be claiming "remain got it wrong, the markets are all great, bloody scaremongerers" when article 50 hasn't even been declared yet is just downright bizarre. 

:-) We find ourselves in agreement; Remain are yet to be proved either right or wrong. And the invocation of Article 50 may provoke further turbulence. 

The severity or otherwise of market movements will be determined by the mood which prevails at the very moment we pull the pin. Early indications are that neither the UK nor the EU wish to exacerbate instability; this may perhaps account for the declining public shock and pessimism, evidence of which may be found in the shrivelling number of Brexit threads on the forum and the apparent return to business as usual.

Chalky

Got an interesting insight today. The UK has been blocking various things in the EU on the military side. Generally the French and Germans have wanted to do various things and the UK has allowed some things (eg in Mali, Congo, etc) but has blocked the majority. Now the other countries are pissed off because they have been able to stay neutral whilst secretly relying on the Brits to block military actions. But now that we're going, they have to drop their image and start saying No to the French in particular. I wonder what that will do for international relations in the EU?

skankdelvar

Chalky said:

Got an interesting insight today. The UK has been blocking various things in the EU on the military side. Generally the French and Germans have wanted to do various things and the UK has allowed some things (eg in Mali, Congo, etc) but has blocked the majority. Now the other countries are pissed off because they have been able to stay neutral whilst secretly relying on the Brits to block military actions. But now that we're going, they have to drop their image and start saying No to the French in particular. I wonder what that will do for international relations in the EU?

Oh, there's loads of things they'll have to face up to. As my favourite modern-day US president once remarked to the White House press corps:

'But as I leave you I want you to know.... just think how much you're going to be missing. You don't have Nixon to kick around any more'.

Clarky

skankdelvar said:

It is a mark of Mr Blair's staggering hubris that he harbours ambitions to lead Brexit negotiations just as the 'hand of history' is about to deal him a colossal slap in the chops. Many have long considered 'the most successful Labour PM ever' to be a borderline nut job with messianic delusions. His most recent pronouncement suggests he is far beyond that stage.

As for the economy; well, the FTSE100, the FTSE 250 and the FTSE All Shares are currently bearing up. UK Gov Bonds indicate short to mid-term turbulence and long-term stability.

'Ah!' cry some. 'But what about Sterling? It's a complete mare!'

But is it?

One of the carefully cultivated scares prior to the referendum was that the BoE would be forced to raise interest rates to defend sterling and prevent capital flight. The cost of borrowing would rise; businesses would be hit and home-owners would be forced from their cherished properties by higher mortgage repayments. The housing market would crash. Golly!

Yet precisely the opposite has happened. Why is this?

Every central banker harbours the desire to talk down their currency. The Fed fears a strong dollar. The Chinese seek to drive down the renminbai. ECB QE depresses the Euro. In the currency war which has been raging unnoticed for years it is a race to the bottom which everyone's trying to win.

So when Carney announced the possibility of QE he knew exactly what he was doing; if the urbane Canuck hadn't wanted sterling to fall he wouldn't have said and done what he did. My fellow Remain voters were quick enough to laud Mr Carney when he issued Cassandra-like prophecies about Brexit; why should they stop trusting him now?

Anyway: were Remain scare-mongering? 

Answer: (i) No (ii) Yes and (iii) it's too early to say. 

Remain correctly identified a negative outcome. They overstated the immediate consequences. In the long-term they may be right or they may be wrong. It depends on the outcome of negotiations which nobody can predict with accuracy. If - as is suggested - the EU approaches discussions in an amicable fashion and the UK steers a middle course then there's a good chance that we may end up no worse off. 

Which - after the torrid convulsions of the last ten days - would be something of a result. 

More importantly - where's Farage? He seems to have gone missing. A crisp (virtual) fiver to anyone who can locate the smiling face of popular insurgency.

in a good ol' fashioned fight, it's the goodies against the badies so taking sides is easy

the prob with this one is that it's the badies against the badies

it just leaves us all confused and not know which badie we want to win