So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

Sporky

Oncologists have a long history of making reliable predictions about cancer.

Economists have a long history of making unreliable predictions about the economy.

People posting on the inferweb have a long history of pretending to be experts in whatever subject is being discussed.

Chalky

I picked oncologist for a reason. They will tell you how some cancers are much less predictable than others, how the patient's genetic make-up can make a significant difference, how there are many variables. What they can work from are the fundamentals of the cancer type, and make allowance for the other factors in their diagnosis.

Its the same with financial markets and international trade. We work from the fundamentals. Brexit doesn't change the fundamentals.

But hey as you're suggesting I'm pretending to be an expert, what would I know? On the Friday after the referendum I told Gassage to give the market a week and then judge it. And lo and behold as @skankdelvar reports, the market is doing fine. Must have been a lucky guess rather than my 20 years in the City! )

Sporky

Chalky said:

the market is doing fine

As long as you pick the right comparison date and discount the indices that don't support your position. >:D<

Which brings us back to my statement - "Beyond that everything is speculation and interpreting limited data with whatever skew suits the interpreter."

Chalky

@Sporky - Now you're sounding desperate if not pathetic.

The FTSE100 is by far the most widely used index, governing the vast majority of investments in the market. Are you suggesting that its decades of use as a measure of the UK financial status is a mistake?

FreddieVanHalen

OK you're going to have to give us a little more than usual if you're going to claim 20 year of professional investment expertise @Chalky

Please can you tell us why the FTSE100 is a better indicator of the FTSE250 for the UK specific situation?

Please can you tell us exactly (with facts and models) why you thought the FTSE 100 was going to recover?

Please can you tell us exactly what you did in the City for 20 years? Was it a front office role? Did you sell or trade for a bank, broker or asset manager? Flow, proprietary or institutional business? Research? What geographies, sectors, asset classes and investment horizon? What would you describe as your edge in investment terms?

Fretwired

Moe_Zambeek said:

Dublin is a tempting location because it has a corporation tax rate of around 12%. Unfortunately one of the stated aims of the EU is to remove tax advantages so expect harmonisation of that rate in the short to medium term.

Tax harmonisation is a key part of the economic integration being proposed by France and Germany. European officials want to set a EU-wide floor on corporation tax in order to crack down on tax havens such as Ireland and Luxembourg. Were the UK to remain in the EU this measure would hit British-based businesses hard - good job we're leaving.

Chalky

FreddieVanHalen;1136513" said:

OK you're going to have to give us a little more than usual if you're going to claim 20 year of professional investment expertise @Chalky

Please can you tell us why the FTSE100 is a better indicator of the FTSE250 for the UK specific situation?

Please can you tell us exactly (with facts and models) why you thought the FTSE 100 was going to recover?

Please can you tell us exactly what you did in the City for 20 years? Was it a front office role? Did you sell or trade for a bank, broker or asset manager? Flow, proprietary or institutional business? Research? What geographies, sectors, asset classes and investment horizon? What would you describe as your edge in investment terms?

The old ad hominem attack? And what would be the point? You wish to discredit me so that my accurate forecast, like that of so many others, is thrown into doubt.

But please, if you are up to it, lead the way, show me the light, publish your CV and give us your prediction for the markets! I made my prediction on the day of turmoil and it was right. Now its your turn. The market is much more stable now and you clearly have professional expertise so you should find it easy. Put up or shut up?

FreddieVanHalen

LOL @Chalky - you're accusing me of ad hominem attack and you come back with a post like this?

I was genuinely looking for some facts. I would genuinely have loved to hear about some more of the rationale and experience behind your stated views and would have respected your experience. Perhaps not agreed with it, but at least respected it.

I haven't claimed professional expertise. If you're going to claim it, I think it's fair of me to ask you to back it up as I am sure you would if someone else had done the same.

As you have just done in fact!

Put up and shut up? Whatever, I'm off to play my guitar.

UnclePsychosis

Chalky said:

 On the Friday after the referendum I told Gassage to give the market a week and then judge it. And lo and behold as @skankdelvar reports, the market is doing fine. Must have been a lucky guess rather than my 20 years in the City! )

edit: you know what, I can't be fucked arguing with this guff anymore. 

Chalky

UnclePsychosis;1136586" said:

Chalky said:

 On the Friday after the referendum I told Gassage to give the market a week and then judge it. And lo and behold as @skankdelvar reports, the market is doing fine. Must have been a lucky guess rather than my 20 years in the City! )












A whole week! A whole week in which nothing has actually happened yet? Yes, that's definitely going to give us an accurate picture of what happens long term. Definitely. 

Speaking of making predictions, have you worked out the difference between weather and climate yet? 

"Nothing has actually happened" in the week since the referendum? You ought to keep up with the news! Tried Newsround? That's aimed at kids.

Making predictions? I also said Boris didn't have enough backing from the Tories last Monday. Did any of your Referendum-related predictions come right?

Fretwired

skankdelvar said:

Were Remain scaremongering? It is too early to say, but early indications are that the immediate shock is dissipating. 

Sterling has fallen against the dollar and remains in the low $1.30's - a position towards which it has been drifting for a couple of years.After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

Mid-term UK government bond yields are marginally up but long term yields are down, suggesting that investors envisage minor turbulence over the next 2-4 years but stability within 10 years. UK government bonds are still far stronger than most world nations indicating a cautious but continuing confidence.

The UK's credit rating has dropped to AA, though one of the three agencies removed the UK's AAA rating as long ago as 2013. Only this week did the other two agencies follow suit. AA means increased borrowing costs; it also places the UK alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Kuwait and above Poland and Saudi Arabia. This is not good news; neither is it dire.

What of the predicted damage to the UK's economic relationship with the EU?

Remain suggested that the EU would punish the UK severely and unilaterally; Leave suggested that sectional economic interests would divide EU nations and institutions into friends and enemies of the UK. The mixed response from Europe suggests that - at this very early stage - Leave may have been slightly more accurate in their analysis. 

Key to the continuation of a favourable trading relationship is the question of which European body takes the lead in exit negotiations and a re-framed trade deal. The EC (led by Juncker) seems to favour immediate punishment and penurious terms though their (mainly) French supporters seem split. The Council Of Ministers (at Germany's behest) favours firm though friendly medium-term discussions. Whoever runs the talks will have the continent's financial future in their hands. If the EC wins control of the negotiations we may expect Germany (and the Eastern bloc) to intervene from above to blunt moves of a hostile nature.

The suggestion that the UK would be penalised in an attempt to head off other mutinously Eurosceptic national constituencies seems to have been contradicted by continental reactions; the principle theme expressed by European politicians and institutions seems to be that the EU must now change itself to meet the varied needs of the different EU nations. The arch-federalist Helmut Kohl has emerged from retirement to pronounce that 'European Unity does not mean European Standardisation'. 

The mood music suggests that Europe may at last choose to reject stern, Juncker-esque dirigisme and embrace a more flexible approach. What better way to sell that change to the grumbling masses than to show that the UK can maintain (in some way) a positive relationship with the Eurozone while retaining national autonomy?

More than anything, people and institutions need confidence that uncertainty and instability will subside. A swift resolution to the Tory leadership vacuum will re-instil global confidence as would an end to the outlandish convulsions enveloping the Labour party. To have one main party out of action is unfortunate; to have both parties bereft of a helmsman looks just a little careless to the watching world.

The credit rating is not important - the world is awash with cheap money so UK borrowing costs won't rise soon. The EU is a different matter. Hollande has already created a task force to attract London-based financial institutions to Paris. Apparently there is a lot of interest .. Hollande does not want the UK to have a passport meaning British based financial institutions will have to open offices in the EU.

But all this is academic as Hollande may not be in office much longer and neither will Merkel (she's stated she's standing down). Both France and Germany have elections so there's no knowing what views their new leaders will have.

Personally I think the EU will smell the coffee and wake up to the fact that it can't offer the UK the deal it wants. Hostility is growing by the day to the UK in the EU - the UK's message area in the parliament was vandalised and British MEPs have been verbally abused. Merkel has tried to defuse the situation, but has also said that free trade must come with freedom of movement. The trouble with the EU is you need to get 27 leaders to agree - this will be a drawn out process which is not what we want.

The mood music is designed to clam markets. The Tories need to stop acting as if they're in a Shakespearean play and get a leader in place this week instead of waiting until Autumn. Unfortunately the three front leaders won't instil anyone with confidence.

Tough times ahead.

In the long term leaving will be the right decision.

UnclePsychosis

Chalky said:

UnclePsychosis;1136586" said:

Chalky said:

 On the Friday after the referendum I told Gassage to give the market a week and then judge it. And lo and behold as @skankdelvar reports, the market is doing fine. Must have been a lucky guess rather than my 20 years in the City! )












A whole week! A whole week in which nothing has actually happened yet? Yes, that's definitely going to give us an accurate picture of what happens long term. Definitely. 

Speaking of making predictions, have you worked out the difference between weather and climate yet? 

"Nothing has actually happened" in the week since the referendum? You ought to keep up with the news! Tried Newsround? That's aimed at kids.

Making predictions? I also said Boris didn't have enough backing from the Tories last Monday. Did any of your Referendum-related predictions come right?

Ahh, a newsround fan? Its clearly taught you a lot over the years. Good for you.

Sporky

Chalky said:

@Sporky - Now you're sounding desperate if not pathetic.

So ad-hominems are OK for you to make, but not for others?

Chalky said:

The FTSE100 is by far the most widely used index, governing the vast majority of investments in the market. Are you suggesting that its decades of use as a measure of the UK financial status is a mistake?

Not just me. Lots of other people have pointed out that the FTSE250 is a better indicator.

All I'm saying is that people are picking whichever index supports their position, and skewing the data window to make sure it fits.

Fretwired

Chalky said:

RaymondLin;1136399" said:

I really want to know where is this optimism for the Leave coming from?

Is it really just blind faith?  Because I see no evidence how it could be better off for the foreseeable future for leaving. 

Its not blind faith as far as folks earlier in the thread are concerned. Its confidence based on knowing how financial markets and international trade works.

The FTSE 100 is a global index - multinational companies account for a large proportion of the index and most of the firms listed do a large proportion of their business outside the UK. This means profits from international operations can give stocks on the FTSE 100 a boost even if the UK's economy is underperforming - and vice versa.

For example, the UK's GDP grew by 2.6% in 2014, but the FTSE 100 contracted by 2.7% as large firms saw their overseas profits fall. The FTSE 100 is not a good indicator of the health of the UK economy - look to the FTSE 250.

Chalky

Fretwired;1136610" said:

Chalky said:

RaymondLin;1136399" said:I really want to know where is this optimism for the Leave coming from?



Is it really just blind faith?  Because I see no evidence how it could be better off for the foreseeable future for leaving. 

Its not blind faith as far as folks earlier in the thread are concerned. Its confidence based on knowing how financial markets and international trade works.





The FTSE 100 is a global index - multinational companies account for a large proportion of the index and most of the firms listed do a large proportion of their business outside the UK. This means profits from international operations can give stocks on the FTSE 100 a boost even if the UK's economy is underperforming - and vice versa.



For example, the UK's GDP grew by 2.6% in 2014, but the FTSE 100 contracted by 2.7% as large firms saw their overseas profits fall. The FTSE 100 is not a good indicator of the health of the UK economy - look to the FTSE 250.

Oh bollocks @Fretwired, you've curtailed my fun with your damn facts! )

Clarky

Fretwired said:

skankdelvar said:

Were Remain scaremongering? It is too early to say, but early indications are that the immediate shock is dissipating. 

Sterling has fallen against the dollar and remains in the low $1.30's - a position towards which it has been drifting for a couple of years.After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

Mid-term UK government bond yields are marginally up but long term yields are down, suggesting that investors envisage minor turbulence over the next 2-4 years but stability within 10 years. UK government bonds are still far stronger than most world nations indicating a cautious but continuing confidence.

The UK's credit rating has dropped to AA, though one of the three agencies removed the UK's AAA rating as long ago as 2013. Only this week did the other two agencies follow suit. AA means increased borrowing costs; it also places the UK alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Kuwait and above Poland and Saudi Arabia. This is not good news; neither is it dire.

What of the predicted damage to the UK's economic relationship with the EU?

Remain suggested that the EU would punish the UK severely and unilaterally; Leave suggested that sectional economic interests would divide EU nations and institutions into friends and enemies of the UK. The mixed response from Europe suggests that - at this very early stage - Leave may have been slightly more accurate in their analysis. 

Key to the continuation of a favourable trading relationship is the question of which European body takes the lead in exit negotiations and a re-framed trade deal. The EC (led by Juncker) seems to favour immediate punishment and penurious terms though their (mainly) French supporters seem split. The Council Of Ministers (at Germany's behest) favours firm though friendly medium-term discussions. Whoever runs the talks will have the continent's financial future in their hands. If the EC wins control of the negotiations we may expect Germany (and the Eastern bloc) to intervene from above to blunt moves of a hostile nature.

The suggestion that the UK would be penalised in an attempt to head off other mutinously Eurosceptic national constituencies seems to have been contradicted by continental reactions; the principle theme expressed by European politicians and institutions seems to be that the EU must now change itself to meet the varied needs of the different EU nations. The arch-federalist Helmut Kohl has emerged from retirement to pronounce that 'European Unity does not mean European Standardisation'. 

The mood music suggests that Europe may at last choose to reject stern, Juncker-esque dirigisme and embrace a more flexible approach. What better way to sell that change to the grumbling masses than to show that the UK can maintain (in some way) a positive relationship with the Eurozone while retaining national autonomy?

More than anything, people and institutions need confidence that uncertainty and instability will subside. A swift resolution to the Tory leadership vacuum will re-instil global confidence as would an end to the outlandish convulsions enveloping the Labour party. To have one main party out of action is unfortunate; to have both parties bereft of a helmsman looks just a little careless to the watching world.

The credit rating is not important - the world is awash with cheap money so UK borrowing costs won't rise soon. The EU is a different matter. Hollande has already created a task force to attract London-based financial institutions to Paris. Apparently there is a lot of interest .. Hollande does not want the UK to have a passport meaning British based financial institutions will have to open offices in the EU.

But all this is academic as Hollande may not be in office much longer and neither will Merkel (she's stated she's standing down). Both France and Germany have elections so there's no knowing what views their new leaders will have.

Personally I think the EU will smell the coffee and wake up to the fact that it can't offer the UK the deal it wants. Hostility is growing by the day to the UK in the EU - the UK's message area in the parliament was vandalised and British MEPs have been verbally abused. Merkel has tried to defuse the situation, but has also said that free trade must come with freedom of movement. The trouble with the EU is you need to get 27 leaders to agree - this will be a drawn out process which is not what we want.

The mood music is designed to clam markets. The Tories need to stop acting as if they're in a Shakespearean play and get a leader in place this week instead of waiting until Autumn. Unfortunately the three front leaders won't instil anyone with confidence.

Tough times ahead.

In the long term leaving will be the right decision.

the 'UK passport' thing is interesting..

I saw this news thing about Berlin making a big play on UK [particularly London] based young / innovative tech companies.

At the start of article it looked quite worrying.

At the end of the article though was a German expert in these things and he shot a warning to the guys running this campaign [which includes Merkel].

He said something like "don't kid yourself that Berlin can be like London. London is a very specific and unique blend of finance and technology and there really is no other place like it in the world. Berlin and Paris just don't have that special thing that London has"

which if true is a little more comforting.

What worries me is the combination of the current crisis along with the EU offering all sorts of grants to lure companies and HQ's away. I'm not thinking so much about a mass exodus, more like a slow bleed from the UK to the EU.

mellowsun

Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

Fretwired

Clarky said:

Fretwired said:

skankdelvar said:

Were Remain scaremongering? It is too early to say, but early indications are that the immediate shock is dissipating. 

Sterling has fallen against the dollar and remains in the low $1.30's - a position towards which it has been drifting for a couple of years.After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

Mid-term UK government bond yields are marginally up but long term yields are down, suggesting that investors envisage minor turbulence over the next 2-4 years but stability within 10 years. UK government bonds are still far stronger than most world nations indicating a cautious but continuing confidence.

The UK's credit rating has dropped to AA, though one of the three agencies removed the UK's AAA rating as long ago as 2013. Only this week did the other two agencies follow suit. AA means increased borrowing costs; it also places the UK alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Kuwait and above Poland and Saudi Arabia. This is not good news; neither is it dire.

What of the predicted damage to the UK's economic relationship with the EU?

Remain suggested that the EU would punish the UK severely and unilaterally; Leave suggested that sectional economic interests would divide EU nations and institutions into friends and enemies of the UK. The mixed response from Europe suggests that - at this very early stage - Leave may have been slightly more accurate in their analysis. 

Key to the continuation of a favourable trading relationship is the question of which European body takes the lead in exit negotiations and a re-framed trade deal. The EC (led by Juncker) seems to favour immediate punishment and penurious terms though their (mainly) French supporters seem split. The Council Of Ministers (at Germany's behest) favours firm though friendly medium-term discussions. Whoever runs the talks will have the continent's financial future in their hands. If the EC wins control of the negotiations we may expect Germany (and the Eastern bloc) to intervene from above to blunt moves of a hostile nature.

The suggestion that the UK would be penalised in an attempt to head off other mutinously Eurosceptic national constituencies seems to have been contradicted by continental reactions; the principle theme expressed by European politicians and institutions seems to be that the EU must now change itself to meet the varied needs of the different EU nations. The arch-federalist Helmut Kohl has emerged from retirement to pronounce that 'European Unity does not mean European Standardisation'. 

The mood music suggests that Europe may at last choose to reject stern, Juncker-esque dirigisme and embrace a more flexible approach. What better way to sell that change to the grumbling masses than to show that the UK can maintain (in some way) a positive relationship with the Eurozone while retaining national autonomy?

More than anything, people and institutions need confidence that uncertainty and instability will subside. A swift resolution to the Tory leadership vacuum will re-instil global confidence as would an end to the outlandish convulsions enveloping the Labour party. To have one main party out of action is unfortunate; to have both parties bereft of a helmsman looks just a little careless to the watching world.

The credit rating is not important - the world is awash with cheap money so UK borrowing costs won't rise soon. The EU is a different matter. Hollande has already created a task force to attract London-based financial institutions to Paris. Apparently there is a lot of interest .. Hollande does not want the UK to have a passport meaning British based financial institutions will have to open offices in the EU.

But all this is academic as Hollande may not be in office much longer and neither will Merkel (she's stated she's standing down). Both France and Germany have elections so there's no knowing what views their new leaders will have.

Personally I think the EU will smell the coffee and wake up to the fact that it can't offer the UK the deal it wants. Hostility is growing by the day to the UK in the EU - the UK's message area in the parliament was vandalised and British MEPs have been verbally abused. Merkel has tried to defuse the situation, but has also said that free trade must come with freedom of movement. The trouble with the EU is you need to get 27 leaders to agree - this will be a drawn out process which is not what we want.

The mood music is designed to clam markets. The Tories need to stop acting as if they're in a Shakespearean play and get a leader in place this week instead of waiting until Autumn. Unfortunately the three front leaders won't instil anyone with confidence.

Tough times ahead.

In the long term leaving will be the right decision.

the 'UK passport' thing is interesting..

I saw this news thing about Berlin making a big play on UK [particularly London] based young / innovative tech companies.

At the start of article it looked quite worrying.

At the end of the article though was a German expert in these things and he shot a warning to the guys running this campaign [which includes Merkel].

He said something like "don't kid yourself that Berlin can be like London. London is a very specific and unique blend of finance and technology and there really is no other place like it in the world. Berlin and Paris just don't have that special thing that London has"

which if true is a little more comforting.

What worries me is the combination of the current crisis along with the EU offering all sorts of grants to lure companies and HQ's away. I'm not thinking so much about a mass exodus, more like a slow bleed from the UK to the EU.

I think long term the UK will do very well .. I've worked all over Europe and there is a completely different attitude to business. In Denmark and France I would be knocked over by the mass exodus as people left the office. The government needs to support tech and science - this is something that will provide high quality high paid jobs and tax revenues.

London won't lose all the finance but I'd like to see a rebalancing of the economy so we don't depend on bankers.

And Tata has taken Port Talbot off the market - they now want to keep it. Go figure ...

Clarky

does that mean the Tata steel plant is no longer closing?

I had no idea.. if it's true that is absolutely awesome news..

RaymondLin

mellowsun;1136678" said:

Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens



So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

We knew that from day one as free movement of people are one of the founding principles of the inception of the EU, it was never up for negotiation ever in the first place, to even think otherwise is ill informed at best, delusional is closer to the truth.