House prices. It has begun

Axe_meister

We're going to be selling up next year sometime so I regularly check Zoopla to see what my house is potentially worth.
5% drop in a week post Brexit.
Bollox!

octatonic

Yup, everything is down for us too, 5-8%.

Ro_S

Doesn't mean anything.  Need to see actual sale prices, not estate agent valuations and asking prices.

breakstuff

Just remembered that any property you potentially buy will also have fallen by a similar amount.

exocet

breakstuff said:

Just remembered that any property you potentially buy will also have fallen by a similar amount.

Very true but a falling market tends to cause people to "not do anything" because it might be cheaper next week.

Deflation tends to be harder to deal with than Inflation.

Too early to say yet though.

Garthy

The Zoopla estimates aren't worth a toss, they are laughably inaccurate. Their actual sold prices are great but not updated regularly enough- our old house nor our new one is listed despite moving in late March. The most realistic 'real time' method is Halifax mortgage valuations.

Handsome_Chris

Garthy said:

The Zoopla estimates aren't worth a toss, they are laughably inaccurate. Their actual sold prices are great but not updated regularly enough- our old house nor our new one is listed despite moving in late March. The most realistic 'real time' method is Halifax mortgage valuations.

Phew

octatonic

exocet said:

breakstuff said:

Just remembered that any property you potentially buy will also have fallen by a similar amount.

Very true but a falling market tends to cause people to "not do anything" because it might be cheaper next week.

Deflation tends to be harder to deal with than Inflation.

Too early to say yet though.

Indeed.

A falling market benefits those who are already rich, as they can swoop in a buy up property fairly cheaply.

scrumhalf

There is no way you can accurately measure any movement in house prices over such a short period.

The true measure of a house price is what someone pays for it, I don't believe that there have been sufficient numbers of sales since the result of the referendum was announced.

Axe_meister

From what I have read so far prices in London are falling faster than elsewhere. And we want to move out of London. Idea was upsize house downsize mortgage

stickyfiddle

It hasn't begun yet. If "the fear" take hold and demand drops we might see a bit of a drop, but nothing will crash unless they increase interest rates.

That said, Mark Carney (head of BoE) was saying today that people taking mortgages at the moment should be careful, so maybe a rate hike might be coming in the next few months.

TTony

Garthy said:

The Zoopla estimates aren't worth a toss, they are laughably inaccurate. Their actual sold prices are great but not updated regularly enough- our old house nor our new one is listed despite moving in late March. The most realistic 'real time' method is Halifax mortgage valuations.

This is absolutely correct.

The house next door just sold (pre Brexit).  Zoopla's estimate was >£50k out.  They use crude indices to estimate values, and don't update them frequently enough for them to be realistic, particularly in rapidly changing markets.

Chalky

Friend of mine was confronted by one potential buyer as to why the house was so much more expensive than the 'value' on one of those websites! Ignored them and sold the house for the asking price that same weekend. House prices are much too vague to put an accurate figure on. Too dependent on individual taste and amount of money the buyer wants to spend.

Garthy

Also don't forget that the second home stamp duty thing from April was implemented to put the brakes on the housing market from superheating.

mellowsun

Availability of credit and interest rates are major factors influencing house prices.

Even cash buyers are often releasing equity from another property, so valuations are a factor here too.

Worth remembering that prices in Japan fell about 70% in the 90s, even after cutting interest rates to zero.

But unless people are forced to sell, it's hard to see many bargains coming up in areas of high demand.

UnclePsychosis

I was thinking about moving house. I'm holding off now until, at the very least, it becomes clearer who the PM is going to be and what their Brexit strategy is. I'm buggered if I'm taking on a new mortgage in the current climate.

spark240

stickyfiddle said:

It hasn't begun yet. If "the fear" take hold and demand drops we might see a bit of a drop, but nothing will crash unless they increase interest rates.

That said, Mark Carney (head of BoE) was saying today that people taking mortgages at the moment should be careful, so maybe a rate hike might be coming in the next few months.

Last week Carney intimated a possible BB cut to 0.25% ..? 

richardhomer

The way Zoopla's current price is calculated, is by taking the last known selling price and applying a monthly increase/decrease based on the post-code sector. If the last buyer stole it - or paid vastly over the odds, this discrepancy will be multiplied as Zoopla's algorithm is applied.

The post-code sector data had become increasingly unreliable, as transaction volumes are far smaller in most areas, against historical run-rates.

It is also possible to 'claim' your property with Zoopla - and e-mail them with the reasons as to why you believe it's too cheap (spent £x on improvements since it was last sold, etc). My sister was moaning regularly that 'Zoopla is under-valuing my house' - so I claimed it for her and 48 hours later, it was showing at £35,000 more.

Incidentally, if prices are lower on there now - they reflect pre-Brexit completions, not current sales....

ThorpyFX

Well, me and my wife get the keys to our first house in Friday..... This turbulence has really put a damper on the situation

ourmaninthenorth

ThorpyFX said:

Well, me and my wife get the keys to our first house in Friday..... This turbulence has really put a damper on the situation

Don't let it @ThorpyFX.

Carry your Missus over the threshold and enjoy the achievement...because that's what getting a house is these days. 

I remember my first day with my first mortgage...shitting myself...needn't have been concerned...many moons later, mortgage free for years, I'm still shitting myself over one thing or another...

Congratulations to you both, good luck on the adventure. 

=D>

boogieman

I bought my last house in a falling market. It's now "worth" 5 times what I paid for it.