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I'm a touring musician.. I mostly tour Europe..
being in the EU means I don't need a visa or work permit..
also.. I have almost no family in the UK.. most of the English side of my family live somewhere on the continent..
at the time of the vote, I reasoned that post Brexit, their lives may have to change, potentially not for the better..
both sides in the debate lied horrifically.. they made promises that could not be kept and statements that were total shite..
it was so obvious that neither side could be trusted.. they were in it for themselves [personal gain.. career etc]
so nothing in the debate convinced me either way.. I was badly undecided right up until voting day..
I do not like what the EU has become and especially do not like Junckers
but I had my own reasons for wanting to remain.. so I stood in the booth and decided to vote just for me..
I did not consider any other reasons for my voting choice..
Voting selfishly is perfectly fine but exposes the problem with democracy, if 2 wolves and 1 sheep are voting on whether the sheep should be eaten, there is only really one outcome.
I didn't want to leave because the Brexit campaign convinced me that it was the right thing to do, cos they were clearly full of crap..
to be honest I felt I had no choice but to vote for something that matters to me personally [and my family] cos that was the only thing left open to me..
I reckon the whole thing was a bit of a farce from start to end no matter what the outcome..
In a sense it was like the US election.. Clinton or Trump?? cos neither option is good
remain under the bollox that is the EU, or leave and screw other stuff.. again, neither option seems that good
I do think a lot of country's ills are blamed on the EU which when you delve deeper the blame usually ends up at the feet of successive governments. However, I voted leave for various reasons such as:
* We're unable to control the number of people coming into this country which means we can't have a cohesive housing, transport, health and education policy as we simply can't estimate the numbers.
* What happened to Greece, Ireland and soon to be Italy just smacked of EU bullying member states, indebting generations (triggering mass migration from the nation states). This has a detrimental effect known as the "brain drain" which means the best and most talented minds will seek employment elsewhere, to the detriment of their own country. Not to mention the upheaval and break-up of their family unit. I speak to many Europeans when we play abroad and they say the same thing.
* Its just too damn expensive for what we get out of it. The who institution is completely mis-managed, corrupt and is un-accountable for it's actions which to me smacks of a dictatorship.
* The freedom of movement in the skilled and un-skilled sectors will mean that wages rises will slow right down, meaning that as the cost of living rises, it gets harder and harder to to make ends meet. Something I simply can't fathom when I speak to graduates who are saddled with huge debts and no possible chance of owning a property.
* The supposed benefits for workers that people think we get, are not really safeguarded, and the free movement of labour phenomenon has seen such things as zero-hours contracts, wage undercutting and downright exploitation being introduced. There's other practices, especially for lorry drivers, which is grossly unfair to native workers in terms of road taxes, petrol prices and work practices.
They're basically why I voted out. There's others too, like seeing Juncker as a meglomaniac along with Martin Schulz
the thing about immigration though.. more than half came from outside the EU, but the UK always had full control over that..
it never needed to be that high.. in fact it was May's job as Home Sec to sort that and she failed..
so why would we expect things to be better in or out of the EU?
being out of the EU only plugs the smaller of the two leaks so to speak..
maybe the only difference now is that the regular British folks cried out 'FFS stop it' so maybe now they will listen??
I dunno..
on both sides of the debate we all seem to have one thing in common..
and that's very little faith or trust in those that are at the helm..
Do you personally know many people who voted no on indyref1 who will now vote yes?
My experience is the opposite - I know quite a few yes voters who are now in the no camp.
I suspect that the result of indyref2 would be more or less exactly the same. The SNP are now in the position of having a less valid economic offering alongside the last few years showing them up as not very competent as an actual government. Their incompetence is the most oft cited reason for people changing their mind, and I detect an increasing dislike of their authoritarian mindset.
The polls, for what they are worth, showed a minor blip upwards in support quickly followed by a reversion to the previous norm.
Sturgeon is now in an uncomfortable position and has effectively been forced into a second ref by her own rhetoric, knowing that she will most probably lose again and condemn the issue to the back burner for a good long while.
Scotland has to decide which union is more important, and - reluctantly - I come to the conclusion that it has to be the UK. I'd still like Scotland to have greater devolution, but I think that may be coming - May will probably give Sturgeon a carrot, so she can back down from a second referendum without losing *too* much face. It's too soon, anyway - if there is to ever be another one it needs to be years away, when the final results of Brexit are at least starting to become clear.
Effectively forever - the same as happened with Quebec.
I'd also predict that Ruth Davidson will be the next First Minister - maybe not at the next election, but if the SNP start to lose support or lose a second referendum it will be the Tories who benefit and not Labour. I'm not a fan, but if there's anyone who can sort out this mess she at least has more of a chance than most. It's actually within living memory that the Tories had a majority of the popular vote in Scotland, which may surprise some people.
None of this really makes me happy but it is what it is...
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
- the freedom and ability (more for my kids than for me) to freely travel, work and settle in 27 countries rather than one;
- as above, for musicians (including me occasionally) to easily travel and work across the EU, with no border or customs issues;
- security for European friends and colleagues who have lived, worked and contributed here for 10 years or more, and for family I have living in Spain;
- economic security: so no financial Armageddon yet, but with the fall in currency, costs for my wife's business have gone up 20% already (she has a small 2-person business importing Austrian wine). The further likely increased costs and admin could make it difficult to be viable in the future. (As others have said, and I tend to agree, one reason for no financial meltdown yet is that we're still in the EU - I'm very worried how things will turn out);
- ease of business; I work for an international company, we will be working harder to achieve the same results, with increased costs, red-tape, longer time to ship products and unknown tariffs. The irony being that in order to ship to the EU we will still need to manufacture products to their legal standards. Not just my industry either, but an exodus from the City, science etc;
- I struggle to think of a European law that's negatively impacted me, whereas increased rights for employees etc have clearly benefitted me;
- I don't believe the problems of this country and the failings of infrastructure and the NHS are the fault of immigration, but it's a convenient scapegoat and has been for years.
- I have no faith in the ability of our government to not royally fuck up what is at best a pretty shit negotiating position. Years of draining uncertainty ahead.
(that was quite cathartic!)
x
just about every one of the points you have made about leaving are actually wrong. We have done this to death, and i just can't be arsed to get into it again.
We get more back from the EU than we put in, for sure. When you look at the whole thing. If anyone doesn't see that now, its pointless me trying to persuade you. Waste of time.
In the next couple of years, as our cost of goods and living escalates, as it is already, and small business who trade outside of the UK find that costs of doing business start to increase, we will all feel the pinch.
Whatever emerges from the EU exit, if the powers that be don't protect the City of London, we are all totally fkd for quite a while.
Its not about snobbery or intellecutal elitism (fuelling position in the debate), its about practicality. Now that we are committed to leaving, we probably have a generation of uncertainty and high living costs ahead of us.
and the whole immigration argument is a total lie, I can't believe anyone thinks Brexit will have an impact on it. It really won't.
Imagine a separate Scotland where trading with the rUK requires tarrifs to be in place, where Scotland does not have the right to negotiate a free trade deal with rUK, no freedom of movement, lunacy and I bet it is never going to happen.
Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
I know there will be moans here, linking to a Guardian piece, but Paul Mason wrote an excellent article a few days ago outlining some practical ways of tackling these issues whilst remaining in the single market.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/16/we-can-escape-brexit-doom-with-one-small-tweak-to-free-movement
I also get the feeling that for some it's not enough for us to leave but that it's just as important for the EU to struggle and fail - a kind of "we're better than you" if you like.
I think the modern Europeans are being underestimated in this respect. Any country that can unify and integrate a former Soviet society (East Germany) so quickly, quietly and efficiently has a reasonable chance of managing this over a long period of time. It has been very hard for Ireland and Greece but if they do come through this (and it's a big if, but again Ireland seems to have quietly got on with it and maybe Greece too) then they and Europe will be better balanced and much stronger for it.
Nothing's happened yet, although I understand the anxiety of some Leavers needing say that everything's rosey and there's nothing to worry about but the signs are there and even the staunchest Leavers were (reluctantly) using phrases like "it won't be easy", "there's a hard road ahead" etc. beforehand.
Obviously the elections in certain European countries this year will have a big bearing on things but if they vote for centralist parties rather than populist then I expect the EU to reform and consolidate and grow stronger. If that's the case I wish we were doing so with them because in 10-20 years time China, Russia and America will be calling the shots (hopefully not literally but who knows?) much more than they do today (and Africa will be beginning to generate economic power) and the only real influence Europe will have will be as a Union. Outside the EU, over time, I imagine we will find ourselves rather small fry.
Honestly, it's just not good enough. We single handedly rescued France in WWII and defeated the evil tyrant Adolph Hitler saving the Germans from themselves, we have also graciously allowed many European nations to beat us at football.
What did they ever do for us? French sticks, champagne, Reisling, hot dog sausages and slimy tasteless cheese? is that it? It's a disgrace.
So when talking about the UK being "great" outside the EU, we have a better chance of doing that, and that chance is increasing all the time. Of course, our friends in the EU (who will no doubt expect military support if required) have clearly stated their desire to "send a message" by treating the UK harshly, but we will just have to deal with it. To me, that is just another reason to be out of that club, and I would be amazed if anyone with an ounce of self-respect didn't think so too.
There are other reasons to stay in that are not economic of course, and freedom of movement is a great benefit to those of us with holiday homes on the continent. But that really is a tiny percentage of people I'm afraid.
I would amazed to see immigration fall to even 1990's levels, but we can hope. The problem is a large proportion of economic growth is from population growth (GDP is typically not per capita), and would the population accept .5% GDP growth rather than 1.5%, even if the per capita figure was the same? I am skeptical.
I have said it before, there will be pain leaving. But better to take it now than later.
Everybody is an economist now.
https://speakerimpedance.co.uk/?act=two_parallel&page=calculator