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Offset "(Emp) - a little heavy on the hyperbole."
The only logic I can see for North Korea in announcing their intentions before the event is that it is meant as a demonstration *not* an attack, and they don't want to provoke a retaliation by it being mistaken for an actual attack. Then having shown that they have a functioning nuclear weapon, what will they want?
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
There is no 'H' in Aych, you know that don't you? ~ Wife
Turns out there is an H in Haych! ~ Sporky
Bit of trading feedback here.
For what it's worth, I believe Iran wants a bomb for the same reason - as a deterrent against the US and Israel, and possibly Saudi Arabia, who I think they have a legitimate fear of. They would be insane to want it for a first strike, since they must know that the retaliation would be overwhelming. Notice that Iran has always said that it wants nuclear power 'for peaceful purposes'. The two things are not incompatible - a deterrent is to keep the peace… that's exactly what we claim about ours too.
Perhaps North Korea is just paranoid about what happens to regimes the US doesn't like which don't have nuclear weapons.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
The similarities are getting more worrying, she also gets over excited and bangs the table at the thought of a big projectile.
There is no 'H' in Aych, you know that don't you? ~ Wife
Turns out there is an H in Haych! ~ Sporky
Bit of trading feedback here.
The more you have a cult of personality (eg Stalin, Amin, and the Kim & Donnie show) the less 'sensible' the planning.
Even the reckless interview the other day shows it : the suggestion of conflict in that region threatens the security, credibility and economic prospects of both Japan and south Korea, both of whom are *important* allies to the US. Donnie doesn't care. He's a mentally inadequate spoiled brat in the body of a fat man.
If NK send one randomly into the ocean near Guam, there could be anything in the blast radius, including US Navy or civilian ships, Chinese Navy, Japanese Navy, Australian. Just plain old fishing boats or cargo ships.
I don't think Kim is that stupid. If they let a nuke off near a US base, it will almost certainly lead to retaliation from the US, and will almost certainly kill a bunch of people.
Whatever the US thinks, the international community has decided nobody else gets nukes, we can't uninvent the damn things and if it were possible it would be great to just get rid of them all, in the meantime whatever one may think of the US, NK is a lot worse, and they really shouldn't have them.
Hope really lies in China not wanting a nuclear war in their back garden and intervening.
If NK detonates a nuclear warhead anywhere outside its own borders then retaliation is almost inevitable.
I'd imagine any nukes sent by NK would be shot out of the sky anyway.
The thing is where would that leave the US on the international stage? I'd imagine anti US terrorism would increase 1000 fold.
Some nations may end up toeing the US line out of fear, the rest would isolate themselves.
Hurry up Mr Mueller.
Trump would be very foolish to launch an attack on NK for testing a couple of rockets. If he does though, it will be conventional cruise missiles targeting missile bases. Trump may be a dick but he's not going to escalate things straight to nuclear weapons. Even if he wanted to, I suspect the rest of government / military / security agencies etc would intervene before actual nukes started to fly. It's not in anyone's interest to have nukes flying around, including the US.
I don't blame NK for wanting nukes. Until the big boys give theirs up, it's just hypocrisy.
Offset "(Emp) - a little heavy on the hyperbole."
A lot of comment on international affairs is based on the principle that people like Kim Jong Un are mad, but he probably isn't. NK has done very well over the years regularly rattling the sabre but they are fully aware that actually attacking someone would be suicide. They stand zero chance of a "fait accomplit" invasion of SK, so nothing to gain.
For the US, a war against NK could not be confined to 30 tomahawks against an empty airfield either. A genuine attempt to topple Kim Jong Un would require a Vietnam level of military commitment it is unlikely the US has a stomach for, and would cost trillions of dollars. While the NK Air Force and Navy would be quickly wiped out by the US, degrading Kim's massive army and his infrastructure would probably involve a year long air campaign, an invasion without SK support would be exceptionally difficult if not impossible.
Additionally, in any invasion the NK nuclear assets would be the primary targets, along with the artillery batteries around Seoul, of any massive pre-emptive strike. Unless the US has 4-5 carriers in the area (they don't) they would need land based support from bases in SK.
SK has no motivation to participate. They know that a NK attack is very unlikely, and they know their capital would probably be destroyed and 100k of their civilians killed in the first hours of any war. They have been notably quiet through all this.
The Japanese are a possible ally for the US in the region, but they are not set up for, and cannot really take part in constitutionally, a war of aggression. If Kim attacks Japan they have capable forces to defend it and retaliate, but they wouldnt participate in a first strike.
Basically, a war is at this point staggeringly unlikely. I'd only believe it if the US military starts calling up reservists, and the US Navy sends 4 carriers into the area. If that happens, then Kim will have a "use it or lose it" option on his military. This could spark a war. This is why the one carrier they did send is now snugly in dock, and not out sailing around in front of NKs subs.