Michel Barnier

RandallFlagg · September 2017

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-david-davis-brexit-educational-teach-uk-leaving-single-market-negotiations-a7927336.html

How long will the EU continue to back Barnier to lead negotiations if this stalemate over the Brexit bill amount doesn't get resolved?

alcxam · September 2017

Stupid Uk needs the EU way more than vice-versa. Good luck with that...

axisus · September 2017

His language certainly doesn't help the process, but then we have also been guilty of the same thing. Is there anyone in the UK and also Europe with a bit of common sense to take over proceedings please .....

camf · September 2017

Are the EU unhappy with how he's doing? I didn't get that impression anywhere.

crunchman · September 2017

alcxam said:

Stupid Uk needs the EU way more than vice-versa. Good luck with that...

Why do we need to saddle ourselves to a bunch of countries who are even more bankrupt than we are, and to others who are headed in a very dangerous direction?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/18/polish-government-brings-forward-plans-to-assert-control-over-judges

As it stands the EU in it's current form is doomed. Apart from the finances of the Southern European states, which make the UK look like a model of good management, there are all kinds of problems in the East which are also likely to cause a major crisis for the EU. Hungary especially is on a very dangerous path:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/03/hungary-is-backsliding-what-is-the-european-parliament-doing-about-this/

We are better off out of the shambles with or without a deal. Ultimately, the EU will lose out as well if there is no deal. Sooner or later someone like Merkel will spell this out to Barnier.

RandallFlagg · September 2017

axisus said:

His language certainly doesn't help the process, but then we have also been guilty of the same thing. Is there anyone in the UK and also Europe with a bit of common sense to take over proceedings please .....

From what I've read and heard the UK position is to look to negotiate the exit bill and trade arrangements together as they are co-dependent and combine to form the value of the deal. This is bargaining and seems a sensible approach. Barnier wants us to agree the sum the UK will pay the EU first before talking about trade. If they can't get past this then the only alternative is compromise.

The 5 tactics of negotiation are:

Emotion

Logic

Threat

--------------------------------

Bargaining

Compromise

Use the top 3 first as you give nothing away. Bargaining is "if I give you this then you give that" and work has to be done to value tradeables ahead of offering or accepting them.

Compromise is "I give you this" with nothing in return and is last resort.

My question is will the EU continue to back this hard-line approach indefinitely, even if it meant no deal and so no payment on exit? That's a big hole in the EU coffers which will need to be filled by the remaining countries, are they banking on a UK compromise and we cave in on the amount asked for?

crunchman · September 2017

RandallFlagg said:

axisus said:

His language certainly doesn't help the process, but then we have also been guilty of the same thing. Is there anyone in the UK and also Europe with a bit of common sense to take over proceedings please .....

From what I've read and heard the UK position is to look to negotiate the exit bill and trade arrangements together as they are co-dependent and combine to form the value of the deal. This is bargaining and seems a sensible approach. Barnier wants us to agree the sum the UK will pay the EU first before talking about trade. If they can't get past this then the only alternative is compromise.
The 5 tactics of negotiation are:
Emotion
Logic
Threat
--------------------------------
Bargaining
Compromise
Use the top 3 first as you give nothing away. Bargaining is "if I give you this then you give that" and work has to be done to value tradeables ahead of offering or accepting them.
Compromise is "I give you this" with nothing in return and is last resort.
My question is will the EU continue to back this hard-line approach indefinitely, even if it meant no deal and so no payment on exit? That's a big hole in the EU coffers which will need to be filled by the remaining countries, are they banking on a UK compromise and we cave in on the amount asked for?

They are probably trying to make it difficult for us to discourage anyone else from leaving.

webrthomson · September 2017

crunchman said:

They are probably trying to make it difficult for us to discourage anyone else from leaving.

^ this, but when push comes to shove Germany, France and the Netherlands will not want to fill our contributions themselves so some kind of deal will be reached.

Most of this is posturing to make it seem like a bad idea to leave to other countries and the EU's normal sour grapes, when things don't go it's way.

quarky · September 2017

His blackmail isn't working, hence the comments (now and in the past) carefully put out to the press to try and raise pressure back here in the UK. If the EU were actually willing to enter into negotiations in good faith, rather than this attempt at pretty one-sided "our way or the high-way", we might get somewhere. But then the EU are trying to "educate" us on how painful it can be.

Just shows:

Why the EU is far from just the "free market" that we joined
Why we should have left years ago.

If we all end up in another recession, will it (like the one) be more painful for those nations with their own currency? Or those sharing one across vastly different economies? Answers on a post card...

Snap · September 2017

alcxam said:

Stupid Uk needs the EU way more than vice-versa. Good luck with that...

I think you are wrong.

UK is the second biggest economy in the EU - we are arguably more important to the EU than they are to us. Depends how you look at it tbh. in terms of trade opportunity, most of the EU is made up of small poor countries with very shaky economies. With the UK out of the picture, Germany is propping the whole thing up even more. France is knackered, Spain is knackered, Italy is really knackered. After that, you have no major economies or populations left.

There's say 500M people in the EU. Once out of the EU, we can trade freely with major population centres - Brazil (>200M), India (>1 BN), China (<1 Bn), USA (320M), Mexico (127M), SE Asia/Indochinese Penninsula (>400M), Turkey (90m)

Most of the above economies are growing exponentially with young aspirational populations. Europe's population is ageing and lacking youth (a key force for economic growth).

If we get it right, and its a huge if, it could be very good for us, and the EU would worry a lot about the consequences of it.

Lets not forget, the EU wants Brexit to fail badly (for the UK): if it is a success, the EU risks collapse.

crunchman · September 2017

Snap said:

Lets not forget, the EU wants Brexit to fail badly (for the UK): if it is a success, the EU risks collapse.

The EU risks collapse anyway, whether we are in or out. We are better off out if/when it does collapse.

ESBlonde · September 2017

As usual the elite unelected of the EU are pressing ahead with the dream of a unified europe. True the leaders are showing a united front in public, one wonders what is really being said. The EU insist momey must be sorted before any trade deal so they are the only ones causing the hold up. They don't want to lose face by not getting thier billions in reparations which thier finances desparatly need.
The idea of a common market (what we originally signed up for) is sound in principle, the united states of Europe is just not possible in the next 3 decades and will be thier downfall. It's sad because had we stayed in and moved for changes the union could have been saved (my prefferred option). As it is we will suffer in the short term but ten years from now there will be other former EU nations looking to us with envy.

scrumhalf · September 2017

Much as I despise the man, President Erdogan of Turkey had a pop at Merkel, accusing her of trying to establish the United States of Germany.

alcxam · September 2017

Snap said:

alcxam said:

Stupid Uk needs the EU way more than vice-versa. Good luck with that...

I think you are wrong.

UK is the second biggest economy in the EU - we are arguably more important to the EU than they are to us. Depends how you look at it tbh. in terms of trade opportunity, most of the EU is made up of small poor countries with very shaky economies. With the UK out of the picture, Germany is propping the whole thing up even more. France is knackered, Spain is knackered, Italy is really knackered. After that, you have no major economies or populations left.

There's say 500M people in the EU. Once out of the EU, we can trade freely with major population centres - Brazil (>200M), India (>1 BN), China (<1 Bn), USA (320M), Mexico (127M), SE Asia/Indochinese Penninsula (>400M), Turkey (90m)

Most of the above economies are growing exponentially with young aspirational populations. Europe's population is ageing and lacking youth (a key force for economic growth).

If we get it right, and its a huge if, it could be very good for us, and the EU would worry a lot about the consequences of it.

Lets not forget, the EU wants Brexit to fail badly (for the UK): if it is a success, the EU risks collapse.

I hope you're gonna enjoy your chlorine washed chicken and GM food, not to mention Lockheed Martin running what's left of the NHS. I don't have faith that our leaders are looking out for the common good: after all they have paymasters that they need to obey, and it ain't us (the electorate).
In the ideal world it would all be good. In this value-engineered version of reality, I'm not so sure. Europe at least still harbours a few decent ideas about the human condition and not everything is judged on profit.

quarky · September 2017

Err, we already have GM food. But the fact that you point that out is telling..

alcxam · September 2017

quarky said:

Err, we already have GM food. But the fact that you point that out is telling..

Good-o - what did it tell you?

quarky · September 2017

That you are looking at the *sensational*

Clarky · September 2017

interesting how this is being reported
"I'm going to teach you a lesson"
and
"I'm going to teach you what this means"
are not the same thing

alcxam · September 2017

Ahhh - lol, I see...

Well, we're through the looking glass now. I'd like to be able to think that we're going to be better off outside the EU, but as you can see, I fear that it won't quite work out like that.

As far as GM goes, I predict a situation similar to that the US citizens face, where corporate interest/lobbying has blocked the clear identification of GM material in the *human* food chain. Informed choice is good.

Clarky · September 2017

I've no doubt the the EU don't want anyone to leave and so will make things as difficult as possible..

ICBM · September 2017

I think the blame is on both sides. Barnier & co want the negotiations to fail as a warning to the others - Davis and the hardline Leavers also quite likely want the negotiations to fail, so we will get a de facto hard Brexit when the time's up, won't pay our bill, and they can blame the Europeans if (or more likely when - and they may already realise this) Brexit doesn't work out quite so well for us.

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Michel Barnier

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