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" Tokyo confident it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in discussions with EU"
Better for them = worse for us.
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FT on 8th Feb 2019. Robin Harding & Leo Lewis
No-deal Brexit risks rise as UK-Japan trade talks stall
Tokyo confident it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in discussions with EU
Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, with UK premier Theresa May at Downing Street after bilateral discussions in January FT Robin Harding and Leo Lewis in Tokyo FEBRUARY 8, 2019
Britain and Japan have made little progress on a new trade deal in the past 18 months, according to officials involved in the talks, with tariffs set to revert to World Trade Organization levels at the end of March unless the UK ratifies a Brexit deal. Japan has agreed to extend existing trade terms for the duration of Britain’s planned transition period with the EU — but this will not apply if the UK fails to strike a deal with Brussels.
It is now too late for the Japanese Diet to ratify any agreement before Brexit is scheduled to take place on March 29. There is also a wide gap in expectations about a trade accord, which would apply either in the case of no-deal Brexit or at the end of Britain’s planned transition period, which is due to end in December 2020.
Tokyo is confident that it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in negotiations with the much larger EU, and is not willing to duplicate the existing treaty precisely in either a bilateral deal or in talks for the UK to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group.
“The new agreement is not just a copy-and-paste of the existing treaty,” said one Japanese official briefed on the talks. “The tariffs, rules and quotas need to be negotiated separately.”
The lack of progress on a future bilateral deal — a goal set out by prime minister Theresa May on a visit to Japan in August 2017 — highlights the UK’s broader struggle to roll over existing EU trade deals, let alone secure anything better.
This week, Britain’s Department for International Trade briefed 30 business groups on its failure to replicate “most” of the EU’s trade deals with other countries around the world. Participants complained that they would be seriously affected by the failure to conclude agreements with partners as significant as Canada, Turkey and Japan. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is keen to help Mrs May, publicly supporting her exit deal with Brussels, and talking up the potential for Britain to join the TPP. Ultimately, Japan could make a political decision to offer more generous terms.
But in preliminary talks, Tokyo’s veteran trade negotiators have been under instructions to extract every advantage possible.
Progress has been particularly slow since many of their UK counterparts have been diverted to work on preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Businesses desperately need clarity over Brexit Japan and the UK are unable to launch formal talks to replace the existing EU-Japan free trade agreement, which came into force on February 1, until the UK has officially left the EU. They have therefore conducted informal talks to scope out a future deal. But if there is no transition period with Brussels the effects of the EU-Japan deal on Britain will expire too.
As a precautionary step, Japan’s customs agency has issued guidance to companies that different tariffs will apply on March 30 depending on whether the UK ratifies a Brexit deal or not. Among the defensive interests Japan has identified, where the UK has export potential, are cheese, malt, barley and some seafood products — sectors that Tokyo may wish to protect.
Offensive interests will include faster removal of British tariffs on the car industry. A UK-Japan deal might also include different rules on data transfers and investment protection. Mr Abe would like Britain to join the 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership, which also includes Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, and Brunei.
However, that would require the support of all its member nations, and has not been discussed in UK-Japan talks on a post-Brexit deal. The Department for International Trade said: “Our priority is to avoid disruption to businesses as we leave the EU and more DIT staff have been allocated to no-deal planning. “The Japanese prime minister and Theresa May agreed this January both countries would work quickly to establish a new economic partnership between Japan and the UK using the basis of the EPA.” A UK government spokesperson said earlier this week: “In the event of ‘no deal’ we will seek to bring into force bilateral agreements from 29 March or as soon as possible thereafter.” The spokesperson added that the UK was “making good progress on securing deals” and cited agreements with Chile and the Faroe Islands.
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If the final outcome is a UK-EU free trade agreement in goods — or even a customs union, although that seems to be ruled out now — then the UK and EU will have to notify the agreement to the WTO.
Sometimes a free trade agreement cannot be implemented immediately, or part of it may have to be delayed (the agriculture section of the EU-Turkey customs union has been in preparation for decades).
In that case the two sides notify an interim arrangement to the WTO under GATT Article 24.5(c), which requires this to lead to a final agreement “within a reasonable length of time”:
(c) any interim agreement referred to in subparagraphs (a) and (b) shall include a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union or of such a free-trade area within a reasonable length of time
This interim period should normally be up to 10 years although an extension is possible as an exception, according to a modification signed in Marrakesh in 1994 as part of the package of agreements that set up the WTO:
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seems perfect to me...
and strange that the BBC has never reported on it...
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They didn't even originally quote the "Brexiteers going to hell" thing accurately for a solid day. BBC radio did - but not the website or TV.
It's a sad day when more information comes from Sky!
https://speakerimpedance.co.uk/?act=two_parallel&page=calculator
But saying that, it doesn't necessarily follow that better for them =worse for us. Why? Well it's all about preference scales; the preference scales of the UK and Japan. If they align in mutually beneficial ways, then that is the preferred outcome surely - even in a non-Brexit scenario.
Like.. for instance.... if Japan wants good quality Sunday roasts (they don't) and we want hot Japanese women (I do) then that could be a mutually beneficial trade.
But if we both want to export large amounts of seafood to the other, then that could easily be an unworkable trade.
So what do you expect you dozy old tossers lol - Stick this guff in the 'politics' section please admin, where a whole 5 people can discuss it further.
It's not much different on a concept level to buying a new car. Buy it the week before there is a number plate change and you'll do far better when the dealer needs to hit target for the model year then if you wait for the new plate.
And that has to be offset against the fact that the older plate car will depreciate a little faster in the short term simply because potential used buyers will think it is older. But if you like to keep a car for 5 years or more then it doesn't matter.
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https://speakerimpedance.co.uk/?act=two_parallel&page=calculator
Because the UK farmers are too busy getting f**ked over by huge supermarkets and making pennies per unit.
UK farmers do not have the infrastructure, equipment or money to produce any more than they do now.
Speaking as the son of a farmer.
https://goodlawproject.org/press-release-good-law-project-threatens-judicial-review-serious-shortage-protocols/
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Seems to me that if more Honda employees bought and actually drove a Honda rather than a bicycle then the company might have been in a better financial position...
It's almost like some people don't realise that the 1 thing that all businesses hate is uncertainty. Even a shit certain market is better and easier to deal with than an uncertain maybe good maybe bad one.
https://speakerimpedance.co.uk/?act=two_parallel&page=calculator
If they fuck this up, people will die - given that there are some 50,000 transplant recipients currently living in the UK, that's a hell of a lot of consequences that very few people seem to be talking about.