Cruz wins, Trump loses, Hillary and Bernie virtually tie

Heartfeltdawn · February 2016

Well...

1. What exactly do Africans Americans and Latinos see in Clinton that they don't see in Sanders?

2. If Rubio does get that GOP nomination, then it will be on the back of major division within the GOP. Whomever wins the nomination, the faithful will vote for that man if Clinton is the opponent. Republicans may hate socialism but they hate her more and even the Trump and Cruz fans would rally behind the Rubio ticket if he gets it and she's facing off against him.

3. Next up for the GOP: Nevada. Vegas territory. Trump home turf.

ICBM · February 2016

1. Someone with the better chance of beating the racist lunatic who is most likely to win the Republican nomination.

2. This is the most divisive, negative election I can remember - a lot, possibly even a majority, will vote to try to stop the candidate they detest rather than for the one they like, in both the primaries and the final election.

3. Trump is going to get the nomination. It's a near certainty now.

The only question is whether the Democrats can tell whether Clinton is hated more than Sanders is feared by undecided conservative voters who don't want Trump.

Saw this on the Beeb and it seemed funny…

"Florida Governor Jeb Bush dropped out of the race. He finished a distant fourth, days after his brother, former President George W Bush, made a rare political appearance to boost his flagging campaign."

Heartfeltdawn · February 2016

1. It's the most interesting aspect of this election, why an establishment white woman is such a strong pull for black Democrat voters. I don't think it's primarily about seeing her as Presidential material.

2. Divisive it has been but that is the nature of politics right now. I don't actually think it's been as personally abusive as, say, the way the right wing press went after John Kerry in 2004. That was the first post-9/11 election and some of the rhetoric was mindblowing.

3. The Gravis poll for Nevada on the Dem side earlier in the week got that result nailed on. For the GOP, they have Trump well ahead with Cruz second. It is unlikely that Trump will lose and that brings up the same question I've posed earlier in the thread: where does that leave Rubio as a clear winner? If he can't win the moderate areas then the Southern leg could be very hard going.

4. Clinton is hated more than Sanders is feared. No question about that. Wait until the press gets busy once she gets the nomination.

octatonic · February 2016

Get a load of this: from http://politicalo.com/rubio-if-god-punishes-a-baby-with-zika-the-mom-mustnt-avoid-his-judgment-by-using-abortion/

“Look,” Rubio continued, “What I’m trying to say here is that God created all of us in His image for a reason, and despite the selfishness that is raging through the majority of our population, I believe He put us humans on this Earth to protect and preserve life, not to kill it before it’s even had a chance to start. We are committing murder and we are going to go to Hell for it. And let me just add, I do not believe – let me say that again: I DO NOT believe in abortion, because that’s equal to murder in my book. If God were to intentionally infect a baby in the womb with the Zika virus, for example – I would still forbid the mother to have an abortion and use it to avoid God’s judgment. That’s how adamant I am when it comes to people’s right to freedom and existence.”

ICBM · February 2016

Daesh does not have a monopoly on dangerous fundamentalist nutjobs.

Chalky · February 2016

An American boss once told me:

"The greatest thing about American democracy is that anyone CAN become President!

The worst thing about American democracy is that ANYONE can become President!"

57Deluxe · February 2016

Nellie the elephant packed her trunk
and trundled off to the jungle
off she rode with a trumpety trump
trump trump trump

I so hope he uses this to walk onto the Hustings at some point!

Heartfeltdawn · February 2016

octatonic said:

Get a load of this: from http://politicalo.com/rubio-if-god-punishes-a-baby-with-zika-the-mom-mustnt-avoid-his-judgment-by-using-abortion/

“Look,” Rubio continued, “What I’m trying to say here is that God created all of us in His image for a reason, and despite the selfishness that is raging through the majority of our population, I believe He put us humans on this Earth to protect and preserve life, not to kill it before it’s even had a chance to start. We are committing murder and we are going to go to Hell for it. And let me just add, I do not believe – let me say that again: I DO NOT believe in abortion, because that’s equal to murder in my book. If God were to intentionally infect a baby in the womb with the Zika virus, for example – I would still forbid the mother to have an abortion and use it to avoid God’s judgment. That’s how adamant I am when it comes to people’s right to freedom and existence.”

Which is what he's been on the last few months, pushing the religious element in order to go after those evangelical voters. Rubio wasn't a man to wave the Bible around with gay abandon in the past compared to Cruz. Words are simple to speak: actually being a fundamentalist nutjob is a different matter.

In South Carolina, 72% of the 2038 who responded for a CNN exit poll said they were evangelical/born again Christians. 34% went for Trump, 26% for Cruz, 21% for Rubio. You go back to Iowa, a very born again primary, and Cruz came out of one entrance poll with 33% of the evangelical vote and Trump and Rubio tying at 21%. This has been the problem for Rubio: he isn't religious enough to tie up the evangelical vote and overpower Cruz's appeal, and his greater religious leanings over Trump doesn't win him enough backers over Trump's firm stance on immigration.

Rubio is a moderate and the GOP positioned him accordingly. The problem comes when someone throws back the same tricks they've been pulling for years. Post 9/11 American politics thrived on polarization. The media has thrived on it, particularly the blowhards on the right. Large amounts of the electorate has been polarized and this is exactly what you see in both sides of the spectrum, the split in the Democrats and the Republicans.

Trump is that ultimate polarized candidate on the right. Rich enough to not have to bend over to business interests, out of the political circle so he doesn't have to listen to pressure from the top, more than enough media presence and awareness to connect with the hillbilly on the street, opinionated enough to say whatever he likes and for it to slide off. The environment was created by the Republicans for a person like Trump.

As much as folk here fear Trump, Rubio as the nomination winner would be far worse.

octatonic · February 2016

octatonic said:

Get a load of this: from http://politicalo.com/rubio-if-god-punishes-a-baby-with-zika-the-mom-mustnt-avoid-his-judgment-by-using-abortion/

“Look,” Rubio continued, “What I’m trying to say here is that God created all of us in His image for a reason, and despite the selfishness that is raging through the majority of our population, I believe He put us humans on this Earth to protect and preserve life, not to kill it before it’s even had a chance to start. We are committing murder and we are going to go to Hell for it. And let me just add, I do not believe – let me say that again: I DO NOT believe in abortion, because that’s equal to murder in my book. If God were to intentionally infect a baby in the womb with the Zika virus, for example – I would still forbid the mother to have an abortion and use it to avoid God’s judgment. That’s how adamant I am when it comes to people’s right to freedom and existence.”

Looks like I fell victim to a news/satire hybrid site.

That isn't a quote of his.

Bugger.

ICBM · February 2016

octatonic said:

Looks like I fell victim to a news/satire hybrid site.
That isn't a quote of his.
Bugger.

The disturbing thing is that not only is it not obviously ridiculous that a mainstream US politician might say it - but that if it was true, a significant number of Americans would regard it as a good reason to vote for him.

It doesn't invalidate my earlier reply at all.

tbm · February 2016

Two great descriptions of Trump I've heard in the last few days:
- sentient caps-lock button
- oddly tinted compendium of psychiatric symptoms

octatonic · February 2016

tbm said:

Two great descriptions of Trump I've heard in the last few days:
- sentient caps-lock button
- oddly tinted compendium of psychiatric symptoms

Both awesome.

fretmeister · February 2016

Some of my 'Merican friends (of many backgrounds) are convinced that Cruz is a genuine dominionist.

http://www.politicalresearch.org/2016/02/14/dominionism-is-the-new-religious-freedom/#sthash.PoDng2Iu.nXpWaG3H.dpbs

That is proper scary shit.

ICBM · February 2016

Cruz especially and Rubio to a slightly lesser extent both worry me far more than Trump, even if Trump became President.

That said I still think Trump will get the nomination but lose the election. The only downside to that is that we'll probably get Hillary.

fretmeister · February 2016

I'm convinced Trump will say anything to get a vote. I think the other 2 actually believe what they say.

Hillary or Bernie are both a better choice than any of the Republicans.

RaymondLin · February 2016

Looking at the options at the moment, I wish Obama is allowed for a 3rd term. He's a better choice than any one of them.

Chalky · February 2016

Unconstitutional. And he's hamstrung now.

hugbot · February 2016

octatonic said:

octatonic said:

Get a load of this: from http://politicalo.com/rubio-if-god-punishes-a-baby-with-zika-the-mom-mustnt-avoid-his-judgment-by-using-abortion/

“Look,” Rubio continued, “What I’m trying to say here is that God created all of us in His image for a reason, and despite the selfishness that is raging through the majority of our population, I believe He put us humans on this Earth to protect and preserve life, not to kill it before it’s even had a chance to start. We are committing murder and we are going to go to Hell for it. And let me just add, I do not believe – let me say that again: I DO NOT believe in abortion, because that’s equal to murder in my book. If God were to intentionally infect a baby in the womb with the Zika virus, for example – I would still forbid the mother to have an abortion and use it to avoid God’s judgment. That’s how adamant I am when it comes to people’s right to freedom and existence.”

Looks like I fell victim to a news/satire hybrid site.
That isn't a quote of his.
Bugger.

Rubio is opposed to abortion even in cases of rape and incest though so its barely satire

hhttp://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/rubio-rape-exceptions-baby-has-right-live-irrespective-circumstances

The interesting thing about the way the polling is going now is theres a prisoners dillema sitatution going on. Its in the interests of the party for most of the candiates to drop out so they can get support behind a single one and beat trump, but not in the individual candidates interests.

Rubio wont leave because he's the establishment pick, Cruz will happily run the party into the ground if it sets him up for another go in 2020, Kaish believes he can actually get it, and Carsons just in it for the book deals.

Heartfeltdawn · February 2016

Carson had a very successful fundraising drive last year but this has really slumped. Cruz is now ahead of him and has more money in the bank.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ted-cruz-ben-carson-campaign-fundraising_us_56c9079ee4b0928f5a6c30c0

Others have mentioned him sticking around for the book deals.

http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/dr-ben-carson-just-made-a-bombshell-announcement-tragic/

hugbot said:
Rubio wont leave because he's the establishment pick, Cruz will happily run the party into the ground if it sets him up for another go in 2020, Kaish believes he can actually get it, and Carsons just in it for the book deals.

Exactly that.

Heartfeltdawn · March 2016

Well, a month has passed since this thread started. Rubio now has a 13-1 lose/win record.

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Cruz wins, Trump loses, Hillary and Bernie virtually tie

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