Brexit to be triggered tomorrow - what if the severance deal is a bad one for the UK?

Fretwired

Octafish said:

Fretwired said:

Laugh if you like, but I think the UK will retain free movement with a brake on numbers and a block on access to unemployment benefit until someone has contributed, as happens in other EU countries.

I don't personally find that laughable, but I get the impression that a notable amount of those who voted to leave will be up in arms if any free movement at all is retained.

Immigration will remain at the present level - where I live there are some serious skills shortages that cannot be met from the UK workforce and businesses will want to advertise jobs EU-wide. I have consistently said that if you voted Brexit because you think immigration will fall then think again. Half our present immigration comes from non-EU countries over which we have control - May and co aren't exactly falling over themselves to stop or reduce it.

PolarityMan

vale said:

The survey found that the proportion of people expecting the economy to fare better over the next ten years as a result of Brexit has fallen to 29% from 39% last July.

Meanwhile, the proportion who think the UK's economic prospects have got worse has risen from 42% to 53%, resulting in a net balance of -24% — down sharply from the -3.5% last July.

The data also shows that the country's lowest income group has shifted from being the most optimistic about the economic impact of Brexit to the most pessimistic.

"Whereas opinions on the long-term impact of Brexit were finely balanced in the immediate aftermath of last June’s vote (albeit leaning towards pessimism), a negative view of the economic consequences has become increasingly apparent and widespread.

"Pessimism has now spread to all age groups and income brackets. Shortly after the referendum, the older generations and the very poorest families were the exceptions in considering Brexit to be beneficial to the long-term health of the economy. However, even these pockets of the population have now become pessimistic.

"The most marked turnaround is evident among the poorest paid, who have switched from being the most optimistic to now being the most downbeat."

(findings are based on a representative cross-section of the British population that participate in the monthly Markit Household Finance Index, which is compiled from data from 1,500 respondents collected by polling firm Ipsos MORI)

http://uk.businessinsider.com/markit-brexit-british-households-increasingly-pessimstic-2017-3

Wow its almost as if the experts might...just might.... have known what they were talking about.

HAL9000

Mayday! Mayday!

ICBM

HAL9000 said:

Mayday! Mayday!

Has her megalomania gone that far already?

mikeyrob73

Do we really need a picture of May signing some paper though? i mean its a nice fireplace and all but do we have to see some old lady with a pen 

57Deluxe

What you do is what I do if an employer fails to honour your contract/leaving... you gone and leave a big curly in the Ladies toilets and if like one outfit, the Boss leaves his toothbrush in the bogs, you go and make sure the toilet bowls are nice and clean up and under the rim and bend - - we do that!

ICBM

mikeyrob73 said:

Do we really need a picture of May signing some paper though? i mean its a nice fireplace and all but do we have to see some old lady with a pen 

Is it just me or has that Union Jack been Photoshopped in?

quarky

What will happen if we get a bad deal?

The UK gets plunged into decades of economic gloom, while the EU experiences unprecedented levels of growth and success. Or something. 

Snap

There is so much outright speculative bollocks being talked here. Hard brexit - FFS, this is being whipped up by the media into something that just doesn't exist.

Under all the bluster and bullshit, there is a simple axis: the EU needs UK and the UK needs the EU. Trade is substantial in both directions, and both institutions have considerable numbers of ex pats in either camp. Despite the hysteria being talked about "hard brexit", there is too much at stake to simply shut up shop and refuse to negotiate, for either side.

Upto this point, Article 50 invocation, both the EU and the UK have had to be seen to be playing hardball. This will be hardcore hugely significant negotiating now. You don't go into that with your opppsite number thinking you will roll over. You don't talk soft and make hints that you will give ground, or let them have the upper hand. All that comes behind closed doors once the negotiations begin.

When asked what sort of deal she wants for the the UK, what does anyone think May is going to say (before even starting the process?? She's not going to say "well, we'd really quite like it to be good for the UK, but if the EU start to get all tough on us and don't compromise, well, we will just let them have it all their way..."

As a consequence, all this mythical hard chuffing brexit is being thrown about. There's no such thing IMO. Deals will be done, compromises will be made. We will be able to access the singel market because the EU wants us to. All that needs doing is the simple (err wtf?) terms of the deal..

I also believe the UK will get some sort of special case made. Not being arrogant, but we are simply to significant economically to be put out in the cold. Regardless of some of the personalities involved, I am confident it will be thrashed out OK in the end.

fretmeister

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

2 years isn't long enough. Not by a long way.

Fretwired

fretmeister said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

2 years isn't long enough. Not by a long way.

I agree - the EU can agree to extend it though .. we could still be at it in 50 years time .. :-)

AustrianJohn

ToneControl said:

"what if the severance deal is a bad one for the UK?"

then we don't sign it

Whatever the Prime Minister says, no deal would almost certainly be a lot worse than a bad deal.

Fretwired

quarky said:

What will happen if we get a bad deal?

Pitchforks, blazing torches and zombies.

siremoon

Boromedic said:

P.s. Doesn't sound like Barnier is in the mood for dancing either, he's promised no deal until the UK coughs up £50 billion in prior commitment costs, he also said that the UK can't just walk away if they don't like whats on the table.

And how precisely does he intend to stop us walking away?  Send in a gunboat? 

The EU playing hardball is a great narrative for those who think we hold no bargaining chips however if we walk away with no deal then that is not good news for the EU.  Unlike Cameron I reckon May has got the guts to tell them to shove it if they don't meet us in the middle and if that happens it is not that far fetched to envisage the EU members having some serious fallings out amongst themselves.  The EU can make this as easy or as painful as they want however if they choose the latter then a significant amount of pain will be inflicted on them too.  When push comes to shove I simply don't believe there is an appetite in Europe to cause self-inflicted damage just to make an ideological point. 

digitalscream

fretmeister said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

2 years isn't long enough. Not by a long way.

I rather think that's the point - I suspect that everybody who properly knows about this stuff also knows that it'd take way longer than two years, so the time limit was stipulated in order to discourage member states from jumping ship. The problem with that is that it assumes that everybody involved in making the decision would understand that...which falls over when the member state holds a referendum, because the population largely doesn't care about such things and will be voting on single issues.

Fretwired

Looks like it's being extended before we start .. :-)

Britain will have to stay in the European Union until 2022, EU politicians tell Theresa May in response to her Article 50 letter ..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/britain-will-have-stay-european-union-2022-eu-politicians-tell/

Octafish

Fretwired said:

Octafish said:

Fretwired said:

Laugh if you like, but I think the UK will retain free movement with a brake on numbers and a block on access to unemployment benefit until someone has contributed, as happens in other EU countries.

I don't personally find that laughable, but I get the impression that a notable amount of those who voted to leave will be up in arms if any free movement at all is retained.

Immigration will remain at the present level - where I live there are some serious skills shortages that cannot be met from the UK workforce and businesses will want to advertise jobs EU-wide. I have consistently said that if you voted Brexit because you think immigration will fall then think again. Half our present immigration comes from non-EU countries over which we have control - May and co aren't exactly falling over themselves to stop or reduce it.

Very much agree, but I think this is something that was glossed over during the run up to the referendum and a lot are in denial about. It was mentioned again and again that a large amount of immigration comes from non-EU countries and that we can control that, but choose not to - May is partly guilty of this in her previous position.

I think a notable section of the leave vote won't tolerate immigration as long as there is unemployment and low wages. I've heard again and again that businesses should be forced to fill positions with UK nationals and that those on the dole/umemployed should be forced to undertake fruit picking jobs etc. Certainly interesting times.....

Boromedic

siremoon said:

Boromedic said:

P.s. Doesn't sound like Barnier is in the mood for dancing either, he's promised no deal until the UK coughs up £50 billion in prior commitment costs, he also said that the UK can't just walk away if they don't like whats on the table.

And how precisely does he intend to stop us walking away?  Send in a gunboat? 

The EU playing hardball is a great narrative for those who think we hold no bargaining chips however if we walk away with no deal then that is not good news for the EU.  Unlike Cameron I reckon May has got the guts to tell them to shove it if they don't meet us in the middle and if that happens it is not that far fetched to envisage the EU members having some serious fallings out amongst themselves.  The EU can make this as easy or as painful as they want however if they choose the latter then a significant amount of pain will be inflicted on them too.  When push comes to shove I simply don't believe there is an appetite in Europe to cause self-inflicted damage just to make an ideological point. 

How ridiculous and arrogant does that sound?? We aren't the powerful country we once were I'm afraid and our mighty banking and service industry might just slowly erode through the next 10 years of negotiations.  There is nothing to stop them walking away in fact. Leaving us paying for the same deal as before but now we get to sit outside while the big boys talk to each other. There are many ways this could go let's face it but we need to stop pretending about just how big and important we are.

richardhomer

I'm in Northwich now - it's looking really overcast....

Richardj

siremoon said:

Boromedic said:

P.s. Doesn't sound like Barnier is in the mood for dancing either, he's promised no deal until the UK coughs up £50 billion in prior commitment costs, he also said that the UK can't just walk away if they don't like whats on the table.

And how precisely does he intend to stop us walking away?  Send in a gunboat? 

The EU playing hardball is a great narrative for those who think we hold no bargaining chips however if we walk away with no deal then that is not good news for the EU.  Unlike Cameron I reckon May has got the guts to tell them to shove it if they don't meet us in the middle and if that happens it is not that far fetched to envisage the EU members having some serious fallings out amongst themselves.  The EU can make this as easy or as painful as they want however if they choose the latter then a significant amount of pain will be inflicted on them too.  When push comes to shove I simply don't believe there is an appetite in Europe to cause self-inflicted damage just to make an ideological point. 

So if the UK doesn't get it's way it will simply stop writing cheques and answering the 'phone to the EU?

I suspect that there might be a bit more to it than that.