Brexit to be triggered tomorrow - what if the severance deal is a bad one for the UK?

Fretwired

bwets said:

I am not happy that an unelected leader is negotiating something so important. She has no track record as PM. No one has voted for any kind of manifesto with regards to a new deal with the EU. I would have liked a general election before Article 50 was triggered.

She is an elected leader. We vote for MPs not the PM. The leader of the largest party becomes PM. Cameron resigned, the Tory MPs had a vote and May was elected. That's how our system works.

I get what your saying about an election but I can't see how you could create a manifesto to trigger A50 as we might think it's great, vote for it and the EU sticks up two fingers and says 'in your dreams UK' lets start again. In any case I think if we had an election May would get a landslide - Corbyn is as  effective as a cat flap in an elephant house - do we really want the Tories to have a 50 seat majority? I don't.

Cirrus

VimFuego said:

bwets said:

I am not happy that an unelected leader is negotiating something so important. She has no track record as PM. No one has voted for any kind of manifesto with regards to a new deal with the EU. I would have liked a general election before Article 50 was triggered.

that is a fair point, however the person who was "elected" decided to fuck off as soon as things got tricky. And he laughed at us as he went, and sung a smug little tune as well.

This slayed me at the time;

quarky

(deleted, fretwired beat me to it..)

Evilmags

The other side of any divorce is a splitting of assets that are mutually owned. The UK has a claim on a lot of EU assets (although what it would do with Spanish motorways I'm not sure) 

Fretwired

Evilmags said:

The other side of any divorce is a splitting of assets that are mutually owned. The UK has a claim on a lot of EU assets (although what it would do with Spanish motorways I'm not sure) 

It's not a divorce - we're leaving a club.

quarky

Fretwired said:

Evilmags said:

The other side of any divorce is a splitting of assets that are mutually owned. The UK has a claim on a lot of EU assets (although what it would do with Spanish motorways I'm not sure) 

It's not a divorce - we're leaving a club.

Like one of those holiday clubs, but more dodgy, and they are willing to try strong-arm tactics to put others off leaving..

Heartfeltdawn

Evilmags said:

The other side of any divorce is a splitting of assets that are mutually owned. 

Shit, I thought it was "having sex with totally unsuitable people just because you can". 

Gassage

bwets

Fretwired said:

She is an elected leader. We vote for MPs not the PM. The leader of the largest party becomes PM. Cameron resigned, the Tory MPs had a vote and May was elected. That's how our system works.

I get what your saying about an election but I can't see how you could create a manifesto to trigger A50 as we might think it's great, vote for it and the EU sticks up two fingers and says 'in your dreams UK' lets start again. In any case I think if we had an election May would get a landslide - Corbyn is as  effective as a cat flap in an elephant house - do we really want the Tories to have a 50 seat majority? I don't.

I meant she was not elected as PM as leader. Anyway, I would have liked a general election so that the parties could set out what they want from leaving the EU (not about triggering Article 50).

I don't want the Tories to have a majority either (and I think they would win too) but I feel an election would help to validate the process more.

quarky

Not sure how the parties making public their negotiating position is really going to help get the best deal for the UK. Especially as the Tories would be an absolute shoe-in if an election was held now.

Octafish

bwets said:

Fretwired said:

She is an elected leader. We vote for MPs not the PM. The leader of the largest party becomes PM. Cameron resigned, the Tory MPs had a vote and May was elected. That's how our system works.

I get what your saying about an election but I can't see how you could create a manifesto to trigger A50 as we might think it's great, vote for it and the EU sticks up two fingers and says 'in your dreams UK' lets start again. In any case I think if we had an election May would get a landslide - Corbyn is as  effective as a cat flap in an elephant house - do we really want the Tories to have a 50 seat majority? I don't.

I meant she was not elected as PM as leader. Anyway, I would have liked a general election so that the parties could set out what they want from leaving the EU (not about triggering Article 50).

I don't want the Tories to have a majority either (and I think they would win too) but I feel an election would help to validate the process more.

Does it make any difference? You have to be a Tory party member to elect their leader and the only people who can vote directly for the PM are the prospective PM's constituents.

Ultimately we don't have a democtratic or representative electoral system. We have governments that the majority of the country don't want and if you happen to live in a safe seat constituency of a party you don't support your vote will never count for anything and the chances are your MP will do fuck all for you. But hey, at least we've 'taken back control'  

quarky

So now we are not a democracy? Right...

Gassage

PM's are not elected- parties are.

It is just a crying shame that after the stupidity of the vote result, we're lumbered with the least charismatic and least able leader in the recent history of parliament to lead the negotiations.

She can hardly string a sentence together without stuttering and fluffing and she is totally out of her depth.

It's rather like having your elderly mum at a house party.

She summed it up yesterday when she said a Brexit of Hope.

Octafish

quarky said:

So now we are not a democracy? Right...

You think a government elected by 11,299,959 (34%) out of 30,691,680 people who voted is democratic? What is your definition of democracy?

exocet

Fretwired said:

From Today's Times newspaper (behind a paywall)


Divorce bill could be only €25bn, says think tank

The extent of Britain’s liabilities on leaving the EU could be as little as €25.4 billion, a respected European think tank has concluded.

In the first comprehensive analysis of what the UK can expect to pay and get back after Brexit, researchers found that the EU’s public demand for a €60 billion (£52 billion) divorce settlement was at the highest end of plausible scenarios.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, said that the government was not expecting a bill of “anything like” €60 billion. “The era of huge sums being paid to the European Union is coming to an end, so once we’re out that’s it,” he said.

The Bruegel study found that Britain’s obligations were significantly less when its rebate was taken into consideration along with its share of existing EU assets. While €25 billion was at the low end of its estimates it suggested that the fairest and most likely figure for Britain’s net liabilities was €35.7 billion.
The ledger

    €86.9bn UK’s gross exposure to EU debts and liabilities
    €17.7bn UK’s share of EU assets
    €28.9bn EU money to be spent in the UK over the period
    €4.6bn Rebate on the UK’s EU contributions

Bruegel is highly regarded in the European Commission and its research is likely to form a starting point for negotiations. It also represents the most thorough analysis of the EU’s assets, liabilities and commitments yet undertaken.

The authors found that the EU had financial commitments amounting to €723.9 billion by the end of 2018. This is made up of money set aside for the seven-year budgetary period that ends in 2020, which Britain agreed to as a member. Assuming that its share of that commitment is 12 per cent (the UK’s rebate-adjusted gross contribution), this would amount to a gross liability of €86.9 billion.

At the same time the researchers found that the EU had assets and money owing to it over the period of €192.6 billion, of which the UK’s share is likely to be about €17.7 billion. That would leave a net bill of €69 billion.

Those sums do not include money due to be paid to British institutions over the period. This comes to €28.9 billion, plus a rebate of €4.6 billion, leading to a total bill of €35.7 billion.

Tellingly, of the 12 scenarios modelled by the think tank only one was higher than the €60 billion that the European Commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has suggested that Britain should pay.

Zsolt Darvas, one of the authors of the report, said that the only way to come to a figure close to that would be to remove the UK’s rebate on EU contributions from the calculation.

However, he said that it might be possible to come to a lower figure than €25.4 billion if Britain could argue that it was not responsible for any EU spending signed off on after it has left the union.

I think that this underlines the fact that there will be a "Bill to settle" - all this bravado about "walking away without paying anything" was just nonsense.

Providing that the process by which the total is arrived at is open / transparent, I am comfortable that the U.K will have to settle its account. If for no other reason,  the U.K cannot be seen not to honour its' commitments because that would negatively impact on future trade agreements with many other countries.

quarky

Octafish said:

quarky said:

So now we are not a democracy? Right...

You think a government elected by 11,299,959 (34%) out of 30,691,680 people who voted is democratic? What is your definition of democracy?

A democracy is where the population (or the vast majority) gets to elect their ruling body. That is what we have. It may not be the best way (I don't think I would have geographical boundaries at all really), but it is still democracy.

Are you a labour or LibDem voter by any chance?

Octafish

quarky said:

Octafish said:

quarky said:

So now we are not a democracy? Right...

You think a government elected by 11,299,959 (34%) out of 30,691,680 people who voted is democratic? What is your definition of democracy?

A democracy is where the population (or the vast majority) gets to elect their ruling body. That is what we have. It may not be the best way (I don't think I would have geographical boundaries at all really), but it is still democracy.

Are you a labour or LibDem voter by any chance?

....and you think 34% is the defintion of the "vast majority"? I'm not a Labour or Lib Dem voter, I think they're all awful and that MPs aren't held to account because of our electoral system and safe seats. Regardles of that do you think a system where a party that gets 5 times the votes of another gets 41 times the parliamentary power is representative of the people? 

Clarky

bwets said:

I am not happy that an unelected leader is negotiating something so important. She has no track record as PM. No one has voted for any kind of manifesto with regards to a new deal with the EU. I would have liked a general election before Article 50 was triggered.

but all the leavers keep ramming down the remoaners throats that democracy spoke so get over it…

this continues to get funnier.. lmao

Clarky

Fretwired said:

Evilmags said:

The other side of any divorce is a splitting of assets that are mutually owned. The UK has a claim on a lot of EU assets (although what it would do with Spanish motorways I'm not sure) 

It's not a divorce - we're leaving a club.

I hope I don't get hit with a multi billion euro bill when I leave my local snooker club.. lol..

Gassage

We're leaving an agreement, not a club