The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

randella

vasselmeyer said:

ICBM said:

Can she even legally do that? Fixed Term Parliaments Act and all that...

An early election requires a 2/3 majority in Parliament - surely Labour aren't going to be stupid enough to vote for it? Unless they just see it as a quicker way of getting rid of Corbyn - but that's risky since it resets the clock for another 5 years of Tory government and gives May carte blanche.

The problem is that Labour have been calling for an early general election for months; Corbyn has repeatedly challeneged May to do it. If they don't vote for it they'll look like the biggest hypocrites ever.

He's just said he'll vote for it.  Done deal.

Fretwired

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

Nikko

Watching with interest.

If this past year has taught me anything, its to expect the unexpected.

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

I'm not convinced that the majority of UKIP voters were really Tory to begin with - all of the people I know around here who voted UKIP were vehemently anti-Tory, they just didn't realise that UKIP were even further in that direction.

quarky

Exciting times!

Can Labour get a new leader in time? Doubt it? Wonder what odds I would get on a Tory win, and then calls for a re-vote? Probably not good.

Drew_TNBD

Winny_Pooh said:

Expect the right wing press machine to be gearing up hard. How many more Loony Corbyn/Anti Semite Corbyn/Train seat dodging Corbyn headlines can we stand? 

And I'm certain a photo of Tim Farron wearing Red Socks whilst in Uni will be located shortly.

Anti-Semitism is on the rise. The fairest thing I could say about the way that Corbyn dealt with that whole affair is that he was incompetent.

Jalapeno

vasselmeyer said:

ICBM said:

Can she even legally do that? Fixed Term Parliaments Act and all that...

An early election requires a 2/3 majority in Parliament - surely Labour aren't going to be stupid enough to vote for it? Unless they just see it as a quicker way of getting rid of Corbyn - but that's risky since it resets the clock for another 5 years of Tory government and gives May carte blanche.

The problem is that Labour have been calling for an early general election for months; Corbyn has repeatedly challeneged May to do it. If they don't vote for it they'll look like the biggest hypocrites ever.

Corbyn's already said he'll support it.

VimFuego

gonna be the most interesting election since, well, quite a while, 1981 mebbe or 1997. It'll bascially be a referendum on brexit, scotsit and corbyn. That said, it should've been done a year ago, after the referendum, but better now than to leave it any longer.

digitalscream

Personally, I'm just looking forward to needling our local Green Party candidate again. Sure, it's like kicking small children, but I just can't help myself...

Fretwired

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

I'm not convinced that the majority of UKIP voters were really Tory to begin with - all of the people I know around here who voted UKIP were vehemently anti-Tory, they just didn't realise that UKIP were even further in that direction.

I agree with you however Mandleson and co are engineering deals with local Labour/Lib Dem/Green groups in areas that voted remain to ensure they only put up one candidate. I could see UKIP voters swinging to the Tories to get Brexit.

I can see Junker and co rubbing their hands with glee ramping up the pain on May with outrageous claims on what will happen post Brexit. This will get ugly and I can see riots in the streets as rival fractions march.

Brexit will be the only issue.

Drew_TNBD

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

I'm not convinced that the majority of UKIP voters were really Tory to begin with - all of the people I know around here who voted UKIP were vehemently anti-Tory, they just didn't realise that UKIP were even further in that direction.

Except they're not. Not in the minds of the majority of their supporters anyway. They're a rebellion against established norms - that's how most pro-UKIP people tend to think.

digitalscream

Drew_TNBD said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

I'm not convinced that the majority of UKIP voters were really Tory to begin with - all of the people I know around here who voted UKIP were vehemently anti-Tory, they just didn't realise that UKIP were even further in that direction.

Except they're not. Not in the minds of the majority of their supporters anyway. They're a rebellion against established norms - that's how most pro-UKIP people tend to think.

That's what I mean; UKIP are waaaaay out on the right wing and make the Tories look centrist. The fact that the majority of their supporters vote for them while ragging on the Tories for their right-wing "elitist" policies suggests to me that there are an awful lot of latent Labour/Lib Dem supporters there waiting to be tapped.

If the Lib Dems had a brain between them, they'd be poring over the UKIP (and Trump, and Leave) strategy books right now to figure out how to rebrand themselves as the alternative vote.

VimFuego

digitalscream said:

Drew_TNBD said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

I'm not convinced that the majority of UKIP voters were really Tory to begin with - all of the people I know around here who voted UKIP were vehemently anti-Tory, they just didn't realise that UKIP were even further in that direction.

Except they're not. Not in the minds of the majority of their supporters anyway. They're a rebellion against established norms - that's how most pro-UKIP people tend to think.

That's what I mean; UKIP are waaaaay out on the right wing and make the Tories look centrist. The fact that the majority of their supporters vote for them while ragging on the Tories for their right-wing "elitist" policies suggests to me that there are an awful lot of latent Labour/Lib Dem supporters there waiting to be tapped.

If the Lib Dems had a brain between them, they'd be poring over the UKIP (and Trump, and Leave) strategy books right now to figure out how to rebrand themselves as the alternative vote.

luckily the lib dems have a charismatic and high profile leader...

ICBM

randella said:

vasselmeyer said:

The problem is that Labour have been calling for an early general election for months; Corbyn has repeatedly challeneged May to do it. If they don't vote for it they'll look like the biggest hypocrites ever.

He's just said he'll vote for it.  Done deal.

He's an idiot. Although that's not actually a revelation.

Hypocrites or not - and remember she also promised no election before 2020 as well - they need to understand why it's not in anyone's interest other than May's to have one now.

I'm disturbed by the way she said she's been 'persuaded to change her mind' as well. Reminds me of something, I can't quite put my finger on what...

Drew_TNBD

digitalscream said:

Drew_TNBD said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

This will be interesting - it will be about Brexit. There could be some high profile casualties and I think the Lib Dems will do well in places but they are actually vulnerable in their key heartlands that voted for Brexit. It will be interesting to see if the UKIP vote swings back to the Tories.

I'm not convinced that the majority of UKIP voters were really Tory to begin with - all of the people I know around here who voted UKIP were vehemently anti-Tory, they just didn't realise that UKIP were even further in that direction.

Except they're not. Not in the minds of the majority of their supporters anyway. They're a rebellion against established norms - that's how most pro-UKIP people tend to think.

That's what I mean; UKIP are waaaaay out on the right wing and make the Tories look centrist. The fact that the majority of their supporters vote for them while ragging on the Tories for their right-wing "elitist" policies suggests to me that there are an awful lot of latent Labour/Lib Dem supporters there waiting to be tapped.

If the Lib Dems had a brain between them, they'd be poring over the UKIP (and Trump, and Leave) strategy books right now to figure out how to rebrand themselves as the alternative vote.

I think there are a huge proportion of UKIP voters who used to be labour and lib dem voters, but they became disillusioned when those parties started catering to special interest groups and crafting policies that harm the majority of people.

Like the green party - I'd vote for them if they weren't so anti-science and anti-male.

Bridgehouse

Given the shocking job the Pollsters did last time, this could be one hell of an interesting election. Some voters will see this as Brexit II, others won't.. but just with that factor in mind how will the votes go when:

- Strong Tory seat - majority voted Remain
- Strong Lib Dem seat (are there any?!) - majority voted Leave
- Marginal seat - majority voted Remain
- Marginal seat - majority voted Leave

Then there's the whole SNP question, and what will happen there.. 

Jon Snow is going to need the mother of all BBC 3D multi-faceted Swing-o-meters.


Personally, I predict a riot.

quarky

Fretwired said:

I agree with you however Mandleson and co are engineering deals with local Labour/Lib Dem/Green groups in areas that voted remain to ensure they only put up one candidate. I could see UKIP voters swinging to the Tories to get Brexit.

Sounds just like the kind of anti-democratic thing that the left likes to do.

rocktron

A poll a few days ago shows the Tories with a 21 point lead over Labour, That is a huge lead, so calling for this election is a no-brainer.

This is all about Brexit, but there are other issues niggling away at the PM. 

Chief Remoaner Tim Farron and the Lib Dumps will be wiped out, except in Richmond. Even Tory Remoaners, Anna Sourberry and Nicky Morgan, cannot be too certain of being reelected if UKIP field candidates in their constituencies. 

This will be an opportunity for the Scots to get rid of the wee Krankie woman who is calling for Scottish independence everyday, which is surely annoying the PM.

The HOL will be concerned for their future after UK government focus is no longer on Brexit.

I must say that I've not known anything, previously, like what is going on in modern day politics all over the world.

randella

ICBM said:

He's an idiot. Although that's not actually a revelation.

Hypocrites or not - and remember she also promised no election before 2020 as well - they need to understand why it's not in anyone's interest other than May's to have one now.

I'm disturbed by the way she said she's been 'persuaded to change her mind' as well. Reminds me of something, I can't quite put my finger on what...

@ICBM I think you and I have talked before about repealing the FTPA; I had a sneaking suspicion that May had it up her sleeve.  It's canny on her part for sure - Corbyn is so insulated from reality by his cabal on the shadow front bench that I do believe he genuinely thinks he'll pull out a last-minute victory.  Despite the polling now suggesting that Labour's off to lose north of 100 seats, he's voted it in with that I-know-something-you-don't smile on his face.

Persuaded to change her mind my backside, she got the fear that Labour in the interim might actually elect a leader capable of putting on their underpants the right way around in the morning.

I suspect JC saw this coming too - the last fortnight has seen a dripfeed of something almost resembling policy from Labour.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

He's an idiot. Although that's not actually a revelation.

Hypocrites or not - and remember she also promised no election before 2020 as well - they need to understand why it's not in anyone's interest other than May's to have one now.

I'm disturbed by the way she said she's been 'persuaded to change her mind' as well. Reminds me of something, I can't quite put my finger on what...

I don't think she has any choice - there will be more court action on Brexit from Mrs Miller and people say she has no mandate to be PM or to continue with Brexit. She's actually doing what Corbyn and Tim Farron have been asking for - an election to settle Brexit. I don't think this will be a landslide for the Tories either and you could see the Tory civil war break into the the open. UKIP could win seats in Labour heartlands and the Lib Dems could do well in Labour areas in the south with people preferring them to the Tories. There was also a report in the Times yesterday saying May wants to be gone by 2020/21.