The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

ThePrettyDamned

capo4th said:

Emp_Fab said:

I'm definitely voting Labour this time.  Whatever you feel about Jeremy Corbyn, he's just one bloke and he won't be there forever.  You can't choose a party based on little more than personal distaste for the current leader, you should choose based on the declared manifestos and which align the closest with your own personal beliefs.  Labour's manifesto appeals to me much more than the others'.

The problem with voting Labour is the man at the helm is a unionist fantasist and an incapable leader of the UK. He would be completely ineffective as PM with upcoming Brexit negotiations and the Labour Party are completely divided and fighting each other.

In an ideal world much of Labours manifesto would be a wonderful world filled with rainbows and unicorns and everyone would have a full wallet, three square meals a day no mortgage and a nice car on the drive. We are still paying out too many benefits to non deserving people who don't contribute. There is too much waste by government departments and we need to collect more tax from big business. Jeremy has ignored these basic fixes in favour of vote winning unachievable sound bites like purchasing back the railway network Royal Mail and the national grid!!!!!!!!!!

THE MAN HAS ONE GOAL AND THAT IS HELPING THE UNIONS WHO FUND HIM 

The fact of the matter is that it is an expensive manifesto and led by the unions. Labour have no idea how they will pay for it other than to say we will tax the so called rich earning £80000 and increase corporation tax. Do you see how happy Jeremy's union pals were yesterday on the television. Len Mcluskey was jizzing his pants at thought of getting his hands on the railways.

A unionist manifesto to take us back to the dark ages. Effective laws and legislation would be a much quicker and less expensive fix for the railways and utilities. 

Nope not with Unionist Labour and Jeremy let's buy it all and add further debt to the UK tax payer.

Buying back the railways and the national grid is a Hollywood movie script. Have Jeremy and Diane costed this element out?  No it's pure fantasy and the idea that fares or electricity would be any cheaper for the general public is laughable. 

A vote for Labour is really a vote for fantasy island.

More unachievable fantasy politics saying anything to strike a chord and win a vote.

Seriously give your head a shake.

Yeah, but... 

Theresa May and the conservatives? They're the reason we're in this whole mess in the first place... 

ToneControl

i've been looking at the government's own figures for incomes and tax paid: 
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-income-before-and-after-tax

It downloads as a spreadsheet, latest full figures are for 2014-15

btw: number of tax payers is about 30m:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/number-of-individual-income-taxpayers-by-marginal-rate-gender-and-age

I'll try to upload a picture at some point, but anyway:
as mentioned before:
I just created a 2D plot of salary against percentile. it's exponentialish:
it starts at £10k at 1%, then pretty much goes up in a straight line to about £42k at 84%,
then doesn't really shoot up until  93% at £61k

in 2014/15, higher rate tax started at just under £42k

I looked at it thinking: where does the tax revenue come from, and where could it be increased?

the pretty-much straight line part goes all the way up to £42k, revenue . No one is much better than each other, it's what I'd call the low and average working-class earners
16% of wage-earners get more than that, and pay higher rate tax
then it curves a bit to the 93rd percentile, at £60.7k, and after that i shoots up: there are a few earning a lot more

so - who pays what?

below £42k: 84% of earners (remember only 30m earn, we have another 35m non-earners) - all paying 20% tax
earn 64% of the income
play 44% of the total tax collected

above £42k: higher rate tax payers
earn 36% of the income
pay 56% of the total tax collected

splitting the higher-rate tax payers further:
from £42k to £60.7k (still not much higher than a straight line from £10k): plent yof manual workers and semi-skilled  workers here
earn 16% of the income
pay 18% of the total tax collected

from £60.7k  - £80k.  some plumbers, mostly professional jobs
earn 8% of the income
pay 12% of the total tax collected

from £80k: this is the top 3% of earners. (~900k people)
earn 13% of the income
pay 26% of the total tax collected

so how much extra tax does Corbyn plan to impose on these 3% of people, and how much can they do to legally avoid paying more?

1% earn £162k+

1% earn £112k - £162k

1% earn £93k-£112k

1% earn £80k - £93k

straight away, the last 2 groups could simply increase their pension contributions to mean their taxable pay was £80k, so they would not pay a penny more tax under Corbyn

that leaves the last 2%, on more than £112k who will mostly be CEOs, hospital consultants, limited-company owners, etc
the scope for legal tax avoidance will be large, these are people who can move investments around, as many have discussed

the top 1% percentile average income after tax is starts at £108k, from £162k income (tax = £54k)
the next 1%  gets £79k from their £112k earnings (tax = £33k)

so these remaining 600k people need to pay enough extra tax to finance Corbyn's plans
If they were all taxed £10k extra, and did nothing to avoid it, that would raise £5.6b a year
does anyone think that is enough for Corbyn's plans?

The FT's analysis on the draft said: https://www.ft.com/content/849c484a-3664-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

There was little new information on a plan to raise extra revenue from those earning more than £80,000 a year. Labour is looking to raise £6bn a year from the roughly 150,000 people in the UK who have income above that level, with the money earmarked for the NHS. Because high earners are very responsive to changes in their tax rates — putting increasing effort into avoiding tax or reducing their income as the rate goes up — it is difficult to estimate what tax increase would be effective in raising this sort of money, and the leaked draft did not supply a figure.

I'm not sure why they think only 150k earn more than £80k, the govt sheet ends the 96th percentile with £80k for 2014/5

But anyway, with my figures (from 2014/5), the total £6b would be a massive extra tax of about £10k per person
I don't believe this tax would be collectable, people would re-engineer their income streams to legally avoid half of it

in contrast, if you spread that £6b across all those paying lower rate tax (84%), it would cost £238 each

Personally I don't believe that £6b will be enough for Corbyn, and I don't believe he can collect if from that small group
Divided up amongst the taxpayers, it's £200 a year each, across the population it's £92 each
Does anyone believe that a whip-round for £92 each can bring us all the promises in that manifesto?
I know there's corporation tax too, but that's even more volatile if you increase the rate, many companies can easily offshore profits

Drew_TNBD

Emp_Fab said:

Drew_TNBD said:

Emp_Fab said:

I like turtles.

No, you like deflecting from serious points when the narrative isn't going your way.

Dude... I wasn't even reading the narrative.  I just thought it was funny to interject with something juvenile in the middle of a serious discussion. 

Me too. You still took it seriously though! lol.

Gassage

Things are bad on the streets already.

I just saw a homeless guy dressed as Henry VIII.

That's ridiculous..... beggars can't be Tudors

Garthy

Corbyn's ideas cost more than £6bn. Three weeks ago he'd run up a bill of £88bn on his supermarket sweep and he has only added to that shopping list.

Gassage

I am totally politically homeless.

Labour have lost the plot; there's so many things they could have done to win this:

• Corbyn steps aside and appoints Starmer
• Starmer announces Single market debate
• Labour publically fire Diane Abbott and make her pay for her stupidity
• Attack May personally as she does them with no punches pulled; her image, her abysmal record in negotiation and the fact she's no experience of family life
• Her woodenness and akwardness
• Her and Tory financial and borrowing record
• Her continual U turns and total lack of intergrity and consistency
• The Exchange Rate
• GDP
• Inflation
• FS leaving the UK
• Hard brexit when it's not needed  nor was it voted for.
  

May is the most wooden and ethereal 'leader' ever. Totally incosequential, no presence whatsoever, no cred outside of Tory supporters and a laughing stock abroad.

Jalapeno

ThePrettyDamned said:

capo4th said:

<snip>

Yeah, but... 

Theresa May and the conservatives? They're the reason we're in this whole mess in the first place... 

She's only been in power for months, the Tories for just under 2 yrs - it's ALL their fault ? Yeah right

AliGorie

capo4th said:

A unionist manifesto to take us back to the dark ages. Effective laws and legislation would be a much quicker and less expensive fix for the railways and utilities. 



Seriously give your head a shake.

lets be clear - the public vote for the SNP is still rising - which is borne out by the R/W Unionist media broadcasting and printing the contrariety - as they would.

David Hayman perfectly explains what happened to @theSNP in last week's council elections #bbcqt
https://twitter.com/hashtag/bbcqt?src=hash
Note how Dimbleby tries to unsuccessfully to refute Hayman’s stats, other good stuff on this link.


heres what Labour are mimicking from a successful SNP 10 yrs in government - OH, IF U’R A BRITNAT YOU MAY WANT TO FLIP TO ANOTHER TOPIC.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_jd4vAW0AAJPlU.jpg

Snap

Hang on, who voted for Brexit? The people did.

DarnWeight

@AliGorie ;

I still have capo on ignore, so only catch his latest missives when quoted by others...but I'm fairly certain when he says unionist he actually means trade unionist.  It's a bit of a thing he has going on.

AliGorie

DarnWeight said:

@AliGorie ;

I still have capo on ignore, so only catch his latest missives when quoted by others...but I'm fairly certain when he says unionist he actually means trade unionist.  It's a bit of a thing he has going on.

dooooo - I try

Fretwired

Labour MPs have rejected their manifesto. Corbyn's going with it anyway. The Labour Party in Wales are issuing their own .. not yet sure about Labour in Scotland.

How much longer can Corbyn survive?

Jalapeno

Fretwired said:

Labour MPs have rejected their manifesto. Corbyn's going with it anyway. The Labour Party in Wales are issuing their own .. not yet sure about Labour in Scotland.

How much longer can Corbyn survive?

All going swimmingly after Corbyn running-over a reporter and Len McCluskey flat on his arse all over the press then ?

Fretwired

Jalapeno said:

Fretwired said:

Labour MPs have rejected their manifesto. Corbyn's going with it anyway. The Labour Party in Wales are issuing their own .. not yet sure about Labour in Scotland.

How much longer can Corbyn survive?

All going swimmingly after Corbyn running-over a reporter and Len McCluskey flat on his arse all over the press then ?

The BBC guy was 'run over deliberately to smear Mr Corbyn' say Momentum .. you couldn't make this up.

Gassage

Snap said:

Hang on, who voted for Brexit? The people did.

17m of 65m, and that didn't include leaving the Single market.

AliGorie

Snap said:

Hang on, who voted for Brexit? The people did.

eh, snap - A people did - elsewhere a fairly large portion of voters are (now) pretty savvy to whats happening in the 'UK' -
some help -
e.g. -
https://twitter.com/DickWinchester
https://twitter.com/GAPonsonby  ;
https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia

Fretwired

Gassage said:

Snap said:

Hang on, who voted for Brexit? The people did.

17m of 65m, and that didn't include leaving the Single market.

Technically if you leave the EU then you leave the single market. Junker and co have repeated this mantra until they were blue in the face.

Garthy

This speech is excruciating. 

capo4th

ToneControl said:

i've been looking at the government's own figures for incomes and tax paid: 
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-income-before-and-after-tax

It downloads as a spreadsheet, latest full figures are for 2014-15

btw: number of tax payers is about 30m:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/number-of-individual-income-taxpayers-by-marginal-rate-gender-and-age

I'll try to upload a picture at some point, but anyway:
as mentioned before:
I just created a 2D plot of salary against percentile. it's exponentialish:
it starts at £10k at 1%, then pretty much goes up in a straight line to about £42k at 84%,
then doesn't really shoot up until  93% at £61k

in 2014/15, higher rate tax started at just under £42k

I looked at it thinking: where does the tax revenue come from, and where could it be increased?

the pretty-much straight line part goes all the way up to £42k, revenue . No one is much better than each other, it's what I'd call the low and average working-class earners
16% of wage-earners get more than that, and pay higher rate tax
then it curves a bit to the 93rd percentile, at £60.7k, and after that i shoots up: there are a few earning a lot more

so - who pays what?

below £42k: 84% of earners (remember only 30m earn, we have another 35m non-earners) - all paying 20% tax
earn 64% of the income
play 44% of the total tax collected

above £42k: higher rate tax payers
earn 36% of the income
pay 56% of the total tax collected

splitting the higher-rate tax payers further:
from £42k to £60.7k (still not much higher than a straight line from £10k): plent yof manual workers and semi-skilled  workers here
earn 16% of the income
pay 18% of the total tax collected

from £60.7k  - £80k.  some plumbers, mostly professional jobs
earn 8% of the income
pay 12% of the total tax collected

from £80k: this is the top 3% of earners. (~900k people)
earn 13% of the income
pay 26% of the total tax collected

so how much extra tax does Corbyn plan to impose on these 3% of people, and how much can they do to legally avoid paying more?

1% earn £162k+

1% earn £112k - £162k

1% earn £93k-£112k

1% earn £80k - £93k

straight away, the last 2 groups could simply increase their pension contributions to mean their taxable pay was £80k, so they would not pay a penny more tax under Corbyn

that leaves the last 2%, on more than £112k who will mostly be CEOs, hospital consultants, limited-company owners, etc
the scope for legal tax avoidance will be large, these are people who can move investments around, as many have discussed

the top 1% percentile average income after tax is starts at £108k, from £162k income (tax = £54k)
the next 1%  gets £79k from their £112k earnings (tax = £33k)

so these remaining 600k people need to pay enough extra tax to finance Corbyn's plans
If they were all taxed £10k extra, and did nothing to avoid it, that would raise £5.6b a year
does anyone think that is enough for Corbyn's plans?

The FT's analysis on the draft said: https://www.ft.com/content/849c484a-3664-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

There was little new information on a plan to raise extra revenue from those earning more than £80,000 a year. Labour is looking to raise £6bn a year from the roughly 150,000 people in the UK who have income above that level, with the money earmarked for the NHS. Because high earners are very responsive to changes in their tax rates — putting increasing effort into avoiding tax or reducing their income as the rate goes up — it is difficult to estimate what tax increase would be effective in raising this sort of money, and the leaked draft did not supply a figure.

I'm not sure why they think only 150k earn more than £80k, the govt sheet ends the 96th percentile with £80k for 2014/5

But anyway, with my figures (from 2014/5), the total £6b would be a massive extra tax of about £10k per person
I don't believe this tax would be collectable, people would re-engineer their income streams to legally avoid half of it

in contrast, if you spread that £6b across all those paying lower rate tax (84%), it would cost £238 each

Personally I don't believe that £6b will be enough for Corbyn, and I don't believe he can collect if from that small group
Divided up amongst the taxpayers, it's £200 a year each, across the population it's £92 each
Does anyone believe that a whip-round for £92 each can bring us all the promises in that manifesto?
I know there's corporation tax too, but that's even more volatile if you increase the rate, many companies can easily offshore profits

Like I said Jeremy and Diane are living on fantasy island and will say anything for a vote !

Their rainbow utopia is an impossible dream 

AustrianJohn

Gassage said:

I am totally politically homeless.

Labour have lost the plot; there's so many things they could have done to win this:

• Corbyn steps aside and appoints Starmer
• Starmer announces Single market debate
• Labour publically fire Diane Abbott and make her pay for her stupidity
• Attack May personally as she does them with no punches pulled; her image, her abysmal record in negotiation and the fact she's no experience of family life
• Her woodenness and akwardness
• Her and Tory financial and borrowing record
• Her continual U turns and total lack of intergrity and consistency
• The Exchange Rate
• GDP
• Inflation
• FS leaving the UK
• Hard brexit when it's not needed  nor was it voted for.
  

May is the most wooden and ethereal 'leader' ever. Totally incosequential, no presence whatsoever, no cred outside of Tory supporters and a laughing stock abroad.

Vote Gassage for PM!!!