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That's possibly true, but if it happened more than once it's likely to have happened much *more* than once even on Earth, which would make it less likely that all competing 'family trees' bar one die out.
That's the real problem - to tell whether it's not vanishingly unlikely, in which case the number of planets supporting complex life is large, or vanishingly unlikely and the number is 1... of course in *our* universe, or we would not be here to know about it.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Just because one specific person who may be a fraud talks about a subject, it does not automatically mean the subject is a fraud by association
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Let’s just imagine that there is life out there at the same level of intelligence as we are currently.
Let’s also imagine that the nearest life to us is in the constellation of Orion which is 1,344 light years away.
Now, in our scenario with parallel technological development, we started radio wave transmissions 100 years ago or so. Let’s say the other life in Orion did too.
That means those radio waves are a maximum of 100 light years away from us, and 100 light years from Orion as well. That’s 200 light years combined. That’s still only about 15% of the total distance required before either civilisation could detect them.
Orion is relatively close as well. In fact, we wouldn’t detect the very first transmissions made from our imaginary Orion civilisation until the year 3254.
It’s quiet out there because the further out you go, the further we are listening into and seeing into the past...
soundcloud.com/thecolourbox-1
youtube.com/@TheColourboxMusic
soundcloud.com/thecolourbox-1
youtube.com/@TheColourboxMusic
Nomad
Nobody loves me but my mother... and she could be jivin' too...
Nomad
Nobody loves me but my mother... and she could be jivin' too...
I have always "wanted to believe", but also required decent evidence to do so. I was at the first public showing of the (now debunked) Ray Santilli alien autopsy film. The polarisation of some of the audience who really, really wanted to believe it was true, and those that thought it was bollocks, was a bit like Brexit!
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youtube.com/@TheColourboxMusic