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Economists have a long history of making unreliable predictions about the economy.
People posting on the inferweb have a long history of pretending to be experts in whatever subject is being discussed.
Its the same with financial markets and international trade. We work from the fundamentals. Brexit doesn't change the fundamentals.
But hey as you're suggesting I'm pretending to be an expert, what would I know? On the Friday after the referendum I told Gassage to give the market a week and then judge it. And lo and behold as @skankdelvar reports, the market is doing fine. Must have been a lucky guess rather than my 20 years in the City! )
As long as you pick the right comparison date and discount the indices that don't support your position. >:D<
Which brings us back to my statement - "Beyond that everything is speculation and interpreting limited data with whatever skew suits the interpreter."
The FTSE100 is by far the most widely used index, governing the vast majority of investments in the market. Are you suggesting that its decades of use as a measure of the UK financial status is a mistake?
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
But please, if you are up to it, lead the way, show me the light, publish your CV and give us your prediction for the markets! I made my prediction on the day of turmoil and it was right. Now its your turn. The market is much more stable now and you clearly have professional expertise so you should find it easy. Put up or shut up?
Making predictions? I also said Boris didn't have enough backing from the Tories last Monday. Did any of your Referendum-related predictions come right?
But all this is academic as Hollande may not be in office much longer and neither will Merkel (she's stated she's standing down). Both France and Germany have elections so there's no knowing what views their new leaders will have.
Personally I think the EU will smell the coffee and wake up to the fact that it can't offer the UK the deal it wants. Hostility is growing by the day to the UK in the EU - the UK's message area in the parliament was vandalised and British MEPs have been verbally abused. Merkel has tried to defuse the situation, but has also said that free trade must come with freedom of movement. The trouble with the EU is you need to get 27 leaders to agree - this will be a drawn out process which is not what we want.
The mood music is designed to clam markets. The Tories need to stop acting as if they're in a Shakespearean play and get a leader in place this week instead of waiting until Autumn. Unfortunately the three front leaders won't instil anyone with confidence.
Tough times ahead.
In the long term leaving will be the right decision.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
Not just me. Lots of other people have pointed out that the FTSE250 is a better indicator.
All I'm saying is that people are picking whichever index supports their position, and skewing the data window to make sure it fits.
For example, the UK's GDP grew by 2.6% in 2014, but the FTSE 100 contracted by 2.7% as large firms saw their overseas profits fall. The FTSE 100 is not a good indicator of the health of the UK economy - look to the FTSE 250.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
London won't lose all the finance but I'd like to see a rebalancing of the economy so we don't depend on bankers.
And Tata has taken Port Talbot off the market - they now want to keep it. Go figure ...
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!