UK Government to confirm exit from EU single market in speech on Tuesday

ICBM

Sambostar said:

Britain on it's own is like a lowly father who stsrted grafting at 15 and faces up to realities and makes the tough decisions that need making in the name of fairness and sustainability for his children.

The UK has one of the highest levels of personal debt in the world - not helped by the ludicrous price of housing, which leaves less for everything else, but also because we have a very consumer-driven culture and lax credit rues. Not sustainable at all.

hywelg

For some reason there appears to be an understanding, on the part of Remainers,  that remaining in the EU is risk free.

Poppycock

The risks of staying in are quite high. The known risks are being part of a stagnant economic bloc and being dragged down by it. And the unknown risks relate to how things will pan out with Greece, Portugal, heck even Italy, and the upsurge of grass roots rebellion. 

By being out we do isolate ourselves somewhat with the quid pro quo the risk of going it alone. But at least we will be masters of our own destiny not beholden to a bunch of bureaucratic, out of touch European Staters. 

Rocker

The situation in Northern Ireland is likely to drop down priority wise, just when political focus is most needed there. The Assembly election and the retirement of Martin McGuinness means Northern Ireland needs all the help it can get. The U.K. governments' focus is on the Brexit talks, so no marks for guessing who will suffer as a result.

bwets

The influence of the media is funny. I never thought I'd care about trade deals. No one seems to mention the deficit now but that message seemed to get the last two governments elected.

I'm not an expert in trade deals or sociology and here I am sticking my oar in!

Sambostar

ICBM said:

Sambostar said:

Britain on it's own is like a lowly father who stsrted grafting at 15 and faces up to realities and makes the tough decisions that need making in the name of fairness and sustainability for his children.

The UK has one of the highest levels of personal debt in the world - not helped by the ludicrous price of housing, which leaves less for everything else, but also because we have a very consumer-driven culture and lax credit rues. Not sustainable at all.

Exactly, we're  like germany in the early 30's. We need to sort our own house out, elect a strong leader like adolf and then take over the world. Within europe things will just be put off and put off as history has shown and it will get worse for all but the few as our population soars and our infrastructure crumbles.

Heartfeltdawn

hywelg said:

For some reason there appears to be an understanding, on the part of Remainers,  that remaining in the EU is risk free.

Poppycock

The risks of staying in are quite high. The known risks are being part of a stagnant economic bloc and being dragged down by it. And the unknown risks relate to how things will pan out with Greece, Portugal, heck even Italy, and the upsurge of grass roots rebellion. 

By being out we do isolate ourselves somewhat with the quid pro quo the risk of going it alone. But at least we will be masters of our own destiny not beholden to a bunch of bureaucratic, out of touch European Staters. 

For some reason, virtually all of your posts on this subject go with the idea that all Remainers are a one-mind one thought collective. Many Remainers are quite well aware of the risks and agree with them. 

ToneControl

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14997280.Majority_of_Scots_oppose_second_independence_vote_in_2017__poll_shows/

ICBM

ToneControl said:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14997280.Majority_of_Scots_oppose_second_independence_vote_in_2017__poll_shows/

I certainly do. I'm not 100% sure I wouldn't vote Yes again if there actually was another one, but it's much too soon to call one - we know nothing about the real effects of Brexit on either the UK or the EU yet for a start.

Nicola really needs to shut up about it.

ToneControl

ooh
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704082

littlegreenman

ToneControl said:

ooh
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704082

Not sure Nuttall will do as well as he thinks there. Stoke-on-Trent voted overwhelmingly to leave, which we will now do, so what has UKIP got left to offer? It will be an interesting by-election though.

ToneControl

littlegreenman said:

ToneControl said:

ooh
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704082

Not sure Nuttall will do as well as he thinks there. Stoke-on-Trent voted overwhelmingly to leave, which we will now do, so what has UKIP got left to offer? It will be an interesting by-election though.

come again?
you think all those  radicalised leave voters are going to get back in their boxes??
many of them will love  the chance to vote  UKIP

vale

brexit is a bad dream born of feeble minds. i look forwards to the whole mess turning to shit.

ToneControl

vale said:

brexit is a bad dream born of feeble minds. i look forwards to the whole mess turning to shit.

That perfectly describes the EU ;-) and it has already

Heartfeltdawn

ToneControl said:

littlegreenman said:

Not sure Nuttall will do as well as he thinks there. Stoke-on-Trent voted overwhelmingly to leave, which we will now do, so what has UKIP got left to offer? It will be an interesting by-election though.

come again?
you think all those  radicalised leave voters are going to get back in their boxes??
many of them will love  the chance to vote  UKIP

It is important to remember that it was Stoke on Trent that voted overwhelmingly to leave. Nuttall and co will be fighting off for Stoke on Trent Central. Using Chris Hanretty's figures for Leave vote per constituency (here), we can go with a Leave vote for this constituency of 56 to 62%.

For the 2015 GE, turnout was 49& with a total of just 31,000 votes. Tristram Hunt won. Now I'm not au fait with Stoke politics but I don't feel that a load of folk happy to vote for posh sounding Europe loving social liberal  Blairite Tristram Hunt in 2015 were suddenly transformed by the time of the referendum into radicalised Leave voters dying to vote UKIP at the next given opportunity as TC suggests.

ToneControl

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said:

littlegreenman said:

Not sure Nuttall will do as well as he thinks there. Stoke-on-Trent voted overwhelmingly to leave, which we will now do, so what has UKIP got left to offer? It will be an interesting by-election though.

come again?
you think all those  radicalised leave voters are going to get back in their boxes??
many of them will love  the chance to vote  UKIP

It is important to remember that it was Stoke on Trent that voted overwhelmingly to leave. Nuttall and co will be fighting off for Stoke on Trent Central. Using Chris Hanretty's figures for Leave vote per constituency (here), we can go with a Leave vote for this constituency of 56 to 62%.

For the 2015 GE, turnout was 49& with a total of just 31,000 votes. Tristram Hunt won. Now I'm not au fait with Stoke politics but I don't feel that a load of folk happy to vote for posh sounding Europe loving social liberal  Blairite Tristram Hunt in 2015 were suddenly transformed by the time of the referendum into radicalised Leave voters dying to vote UKIP at the next given opportunity as TC suggests.

who said I thought it was the prior voters who were radicalised?

Heartfeltdawn

ToneControl said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said:

littlegreenman said:

Not sure Nuttall will do as well as he thinks there. Stoke-on-Trent voted overwhelmingly to leave, which we will now do, so what has UKIP got left to offer? It will be an interesting by-election though.

come again?
you think all those  radicalised leave voters are going to get back in their boxes??
many of them will love  the chance to vote  UKIP

It is important to remember that it was Stoke on Trent that voted overwhelmingly to leave. Nuttall and co will be fighting off for Stoke on Trent Central. Using Chris Hanretty's figures for Leave vote per constituency (here), we can go with a Leave vote for this constituency of 56 to 62%.

For the 2015 GE, turnout was 49& with a total of just 31,000 votes. Tristram Hunt won. Now I'm not au fait with Stoke politics but I don't feel that a load of folk happy to vote for posh sounding Europe loving social liberal  Blairite Tristram Hunt in 2015 were suddenly transformed by the time of the referendum into radicalised Leave voters dying to vote UKIP at the next given opportunity as TC suggests.

who said I thought it was the prior voters who were radicalised?

Nobody said it. But you also present no evidence for your notion that there's a whole bunch of radicalised Leave voters eager to vote UKIP. What was stopping them in 2015? Rarely does a by-election gain a greater turnout than the GE that preceded it. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Turnout_increased_from_general_election

ToneControl

what was the turnout for the Brexit vote?

Stoke-on-Trent: Votes cast: 117,680 (65.7%)

Remain: 36,027
Leave: 81,563
http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/how-stoke-on-trent-and-staffordshire-voted-in-the-eu-referendum/story-29439155-detail/story.html

the results were similar across the region, to spare anyone the trouble of reading the article

what was the turnout at the last GE in Stoke?   49.9%  
LAB majority:            5,179                16.7%

hmmm what could possible happen next? 

I'll be honest, to an internet sparring buddy: I just guessed it would  be this sort of statistical  scenario, I looked it up after your challenge, 
here's some right-wing journalism on the subject:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/20-seats-lowest-turnout-show-labour-voters-drifting-ukip-or-not-voting-all


I genuinely think  we've seen stage one of a new paradigm in UK politics
What happened to the liberals in the early 20th Century? the newly  enfranchised voted for them for a while, then largely moved en masse to Labour

The SNP were the first people kicking the labour door, and it fell off the hinges
I may well vote labour again in the next GE, but I really think the game has changed 
We've already seen the Libs down from  57 seats  in 2010 to  8 seats  in 2015, the  SNP wiping out Labour in Scotland, but you don't think  anything dramatic is likely in this by-election or the next  GE?

Heartfeltdawn

And you're not comparing like for like stats as I pointed out earlier. Stoke on Trent at the referendum did indeed vote that way. The turnout at the last GE in Stoke was NOT 49.9%. That was the turnout for Stoke on Trent Central, one of three constituencies in the Stoke on Trent area. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

All three constituencies have been Labour since creation. 

Undoubtedly many Labour supporters in 2015 voted Leave, far more than the analysts ever thought possible. I've said god knows how many times on this forum how it was clear from the Bristol results that I clerked and counted that many Labour supporters saw nothing wrong with supporting Labour when it came to domestic elections (check out the Bristol mayoral election last year) and supporting Leave/UKIP elsewhere. If that can happen in a fairly affluent city like Bristol, then somewhere with higher unemployment is even more likely to support Labour and Leave at the same time. The big question is whether they are really going to change their political beliefs. 

The SNP kicked the Labour door down through the weight of nationalist populism, Us against the English. The Libs lost because nobody trusted them one iota. Now somewhere like Stoke Central, a safe Labour seat, one that still manages to keep a Blairite in power... are they really going to change tack and support a more free market driven UKIP? What the by-election will do is force Nuttall to put his policies firmly on display, and the one that will get the most interest will inevitably be the NHS after the way it was used in the referendum. If Labour select Dr Stephen Hitchin as their candidate, and a former Army Reservist and GP and A&E doctor, then the medical policies will be right at the forefront. 

http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/contest-to-be-labour-s-stoke-central-candidate-heats-up/story-30069099-detail/story.html

I'm certainly not saying that something seismic won't happen. I am saying that it goes against by-election turnout history and against the longstanding Labour history within Stoke. You also have to look at 2010 versus 2015. 

2010 Stoke Central turnout: 32,470. UKIP vote: 1402 Labour: 12605
2015: Stoke Central turnout: 31,084. UKIP vote: 7041 Labour 12200

So Labour didn't lose a tremendous number of votes (Hunt's vote percentage was actually up on 2010). The BNP actually gained over 2,000 votes in 2010 and didn't stand in 2015. I think it's reasonable to suggest that some of those BNP voters went UKIP in 2015. Realistically for UKIP to win the seat, Nuttall's got to take 25% of the Labour vote and turn it into UKIP numbers. That's a pretty tough task. 

The biggest problem for Labour in 2015 was voter apathy. Miliband did not enthuse. The party did not enthuse. The same was true for Hillary Clinton. I suspect a strong Corbyn presence in Stoke will do a lot more to get Labour voters out there than Miliband ever did. 

ToneControl

Heartfeltdawn said:

And you're not comparing like for like stats as I pointed out earlier. Stoke on Trent at the referendum did indeed vote that way. The turnout at the last GE in Stoke was NOT 49.9%. That was the turnout for Stoke on Trent Central, one of three constituencies in the Stoke on Trent area. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

what is your point?   
the by election is for   Stoke on Trent Central, which is why I  quoted its turnout of 49%

All three constituencies have been Labour since creation. 



Undoubtedly many Labour supporters in 2015 voted Leave, far more than the analysts ever thought possible. I've said god knows how many times on this forum how it was clear from the Bristol results that I clerked and counted that many Labour supporters saw nothing wrong with supporting Labour when it came to domestic elections (check out the Bristol mayoral election last year) and supporting Leave/UKIP elsewhere. If that can happen in a fairly affluent city like Bristol, then somewhere with higher unemployment is even more likely to support Labour and Leave at the same time. The big question is whether they are really going to change their political beliefs. 

That's your theory:  when has it been tested in a GE?
Bristol is a strong Remainer area, how can you confidently extrapolate theories about labour voters there to Stoke?

The SNP kicked the Labour door down through the weight of nationalist populism, Us against the English. The Libs lost because nobody trusted them one iota. Now somewhere like Stoke Central, a safe Labour seat, one that still manages to keep a Blairite in power... are they really going to change tack and support a more free market driven UKIP? What the by-election will do is force Nuttall to put his policies firmly on display, and the one that will get the most interest will inevitably be the NHS after the way it was used in the referendum. If Labour select Dr Stephen Hitchin as their candidate, and a former Army Reservist and GP and A&E doctor, then the medical policies will be right at the forefront. 

http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/contest-to-be-labour-s-stoke-central-candidate-heats-up/story-30069099-detail/story.html

I'm certainly not saying that something seismic won't happen. I am saying that it goes against by-election turnout history and against the longstanding Labour history within Stoke. You also have to look at 2010 versus 2015. 

2010 Stoke Central turnout: 32,470. UKIP vote: 1402 Labour: 12605
2015: Stoke Central turnout: 31,084. UKIP vote: 7041 Labour 12200

So Labour didn't lose a tremendous number of votes (Hunt's vote percentage was actually up on 2010). The BNP actually gained over 2,000 votes in 2010 and didn't stand in 2015. I think it's reasonable to suggest that some of those BNP voters went UKIP in 2015. Realistically for UKIP to win the seat, Nuttall's got to take 25% of the Labour vote and turn it into UKIP numbers. That's a pretty tough task. 

The biggest problem for Labour in 2015 was voter apathy. Miliband did not enthuse. The party did not enthuse. The same was true for Hillary Clinton. I suspect a strong Corbyn presence in Stoke will do a lot more to get Labour voters out there than Miliband ever did. 

Of course  it would go against history. I'm saying that anyone being complacent about labour voting areas is  unwise
Stoke has the highest leaver vote
But you're confident the labour voters will carry on voting labour,  with a  winning vote of labour=12200 vs UKIP 7041, a  labour majority of about 5200

So UKIP need 5200 votes, or simply take 2600 from Labour

Now, what about the extra  15.8% who voted  in the  referendum turn out? who will they vote for?
How many 2015 GE labour voters  who voted leave will decide to go for UKIP this time? We don't know
I don't think Corbyn will help labour in Stoke

Heartfeltdawn

The point, Mr TC, is that turnout for the referendum was done over a much wider area that for Stoke on Trent Central. When you mention the turnout, you said 'What was the turnout in Stoke?', not Stoke on Trent Central. 

Re. Bristol: it's obvious. If a strong Remain area like Bristol can still have a decent Leave vote despite being a Labour mayor area, decent Labour MP representation, and some decent Green results at local level (thus indicating a strong left wing element), then a Labour safe area like Stoke might go the same way. Bristol had tons of data I saw that has never been reported like the number of people who voted for UKIP as mayor but had Labour as their second choice and vice versa. That's data you didn't see but folk like me with a predilection for anal mental noting doing the count did see. 

So now we wait for the SoTCentral result to see if people stay with the party they've always gone when it comes to MP elections or whether they'll be going with one issue to determine where their vote goes. 

Extra referendum votes: well, look at Scotland. Look at the turnout for that referendum versus the Scottish turnout in the EU referndum versus the Scottish turnout in the General Election. 

ScotRef 2014: 84.6%
Scot EU ref 2016: 67.2%
Scot GE 2015: 71.1%. 

I'd suggest that the EU referendum was more important to English voters than Scottish voters. ScotRef was their big moment: for many English voters, EURef was theirs. With Northern Ireland having a 62% turnout and Wales 71%. So if ScotRef saw a big turnout which was then followed by a drop for the GE and then the referendum, then we have seen my theory above being tested out in a GE in one region that has also had a major referendum. So those extra 

I don't know where you get this idea that I'm confident on Labour voters carrying on voting Labour when I say quite clearly how voter apathy was Labour's biggest problem in 2015. Clinton had the same problem, the traditionals would turn out but she couldn't motivate the new breed of voters particularly well and Miliband was the same. Now Corbyn, for all his daft inclinations, has clearly got a motivated young base of voter interested in politics. Statistically across the country, young people generally plumped for Remain. Those folk, if they are motivated enough to get to the ballot box, could well be very important. 

Here's another reason why Labour should not be complacent: the 2014 Heywood and Middleton by-election. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014

Now you talk of how I'm confident: what about your confidence in UKIP "simply taking" votes from Labour? That's quite a lot of confidence in a party who actually lost 50% of their MPs at the last election, whose leadership and general organisation since the election has been absolutely fucking pisspoor, and whose ability to campaign on anything other than one issue is under scrutiny. If Nuttall pulls it off, then I'd personally rank it as being a far greater shock than Trump becoming White House head honcho based on UKIP having some financial difficulties and not having a real media guru like Bannon in their ranks. 

So believe me, good sir, you might try to claim that I'm backing Labour and have some bizarre belief in them being successful. It's simply pointing out that UKIP overturning Labour goes against history and is not as simple as you think it will be. As ever, I am backing nobody in this. I don't wave flags for a particular team. It's far more fun looking at history and available data.