UK Government to confirm exit from EU single market in speech on Tuesday

Fretwired

mellowsun said:

Fretwired said:

 I attend and run a number of business networks 

So you're the bastard at the back taking all the pics on his phone  .. that's my best David Brent impression .. :-)

Fretwired

Bad news for Corbyn .. his candidate for the Stoke by-election just quit. Apparently he's a qualified doctor who thinks he should remain in the NHS. I agree with him ..

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

Bad news for Corbyn .. his candidate for the Stoke by-election just quit. Apparently he's a qualified doctor who thinks he should remain in the NHS. I agree with him ..

21 hours ago Hitchin was announcing how proud he was to be shortlisted. 6 hours ago he's posting about withdrawing after realising his medical career would be at an end.

I don't buy it. Something forced him to withdraw. Whether it's something that could be used as a smear (he mentions the wife and kids relocating from Cuba - slightly unusual) or Corbyn's camp have a preferred candidate, I simply don't believe that it only dawned on him overnight that a full-time medical career and being an MP do not mix. 

ToneControl

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said:

all sounds reasonable

I was surprised to see Nuttall  bring catholicism into his  "sales package" so much,  50% are catholic in Liverpool,  but anywhere else it's 10% max. I thought he'd be sticking to  the main  UKIP themes, and also  adding risk to start  talking about the NHS

It's always been there. Catholic education from what I remember but he swings about a bit. COnsider the article below from March 2015:

http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/1834/0/ukip-deputy-leader-says-party-in-line-with-catholic-thought-

Earlier in the year, it was reported in an interview in the NS that he wasn't a churchgoer. 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/paul-nuttall-could-i-lead-ukip-yeah-i-think-i-could

AFAIK he is a bit  confused about UK pensioners in Spain, the Uk pays already for their healthcare currently

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

Bad news for Corbyn .. his candidate for the Stoke by-election just quit. Apparently he's a qualified doctor who thinks he should remain in the NHS. I agree with him ..

21 hours ago Hitchin was announcing how proud he was to be shortlisted. 6 hours ago he's posting about withdrawing after realising his medical career would be at an end.

I don't buy it. Something forced him to withdraw. Whether it's something that could be used as a smear (he mentions the wife and kids relocating from Cuba - slightly unusual) or Corbyn's camp have a preferred candidate, I simply don't believe that it only dawned on him overnight that a full-time medical career and being an MP do not mix. 

I agree .. something is fishy. It occurred to me that with the NHS in crisis 'stealing' a doctor as a candidate might not be the brightest thing to do for a party that champions the NHS, and rightly criticises the government for a lack of doctors.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

I agree .. something is fishy. It occurred to me that with the NHS in crisis 'stealing' a doctor as a candidate might not be the brightest thing to do for a party that champions the NHS, and rightly criticises the government for a lack of doctors.

Generally doctors are well regarded when they become MPs. Sarah Wollaston and Daniel Poulter on the Tory side come over as having integrity because neither have been afraid to criticise Conservative health policies. Rosena Allin-Khan is in the infancy of her MP career but still has had some good moments. I don't think that accusations of 'stealing' a doctor would hold any sway. I would place my money on the hierarchy thinking that a bloke with a wife and kids relocating from Cuba (can't find anything on their nationality so I assume they are Cuban) might be open to a few attacks in a by-election where immigration will be a major point of discussion. 

Final hustings for the remaining three are tonight. 

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

I agree .. something is fishy. It occurred to me that with the NHS in crisis 'stealing' a doctor as a candidate might not be the brightest thing to do for a party that champions the NHS, and rightly criticises the government for a lack of doctors.

Generally doctors are well regarded when they become MPs. Sarah Wollaston and Daniel Poulter on the Tory side come over as having integrity because neither have been afraid to criticise Conservative health policies. Rosena Allin-Khan is in the infancy of her MP career but still has had some good moments. I don't think that accusations of 'stealing' a doctor would hold any sway. I would place my money on the hierarchy thinking that a bloke with a wife and kids relocating from Cuba (can't find anything on their nationality so I assume they are Cuban) might be open to a few attacks in a by-election where immigration will be a major point of discussion. 

Final hustings for the remaining three are tonight. 

I didn't mean Labour - I think that's what Stephen Hitchin thought. Just read his published letter - seems a decent guy.  I think he's decided that he can't leave the NHS at this time - he's a GP and A+E doctor. I doubt its a race issue as he's a well known local councillor and a respected doctor who campaigns for the NHS and social care - UKIP would be annihilated if they attacked a decent bloke like him in that way. Apparently he and his wife recently lost their daughter.

Heartfeltdawn

That's exactly what I'm getting at. Yesterday he was tweeting about how proud he was to be a candidate: 15 hours after that, he's pulling out. I simply don't believe that he suddenly woke up and thought "Shit, I'm not going to be a doctor any longer". He's been a councillor from 2015 so has some experience of the demands required and I find it hard to believe that he'd be so naive to think that he could combine the doctor and MP roles. 

UKIP wouldn't have to attack him in that way. When you see people still pushing the moronic 'pens, not pencils' at voting stations argument, then it wouldn't take much stretch of imagination to think some would view a candidate with a foreign wife in a less than positive light. Social media babble and idle gossip, that kind of thing. Something's spooked him out of it in my view. 

Apparently the remaining three candidates are all pro-Remain. Should be fun... 

ICBM

Heartfeltdawn said:

Apparently the remaining three candidates are all pro-Remain. Should be fun... 

That seems like a remarkably stupid strategy, however you feel about the EU. Otherwise known as "let's hand this to UKIP on a plate".

Remainers have the choice to vote for the Lib Dems, if they feel more strongly about the issue than anything else. It would therefore be wiser to pick a Labour candidate who is pro-Leave, in order to attract those who are worried about the NHS but who still want to leave the EU.

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

That's exactly what I'm getting at. Yesterday he was tweeting about how proud he was to be a candidate: 15 hours after that, he's pulling out. I simply don't believe that he suddenly woke up and thought "Shit, I'm not going to be a doctor any longer". He's been a councillor from 2015 so has some experience of the demands required and I find it hard to believe that he'd be so naive to think that he could combine the doctor and MP roles. 

UKIP wouldn't have to attack him in that way. When you see people still pushing the moronic 'pens, not pencils' at voting stations argument, then it wouldn't take much stretch of imagination to think some would view a candidate with a foreign wife in a less than positive light. Social media babble and idle gossip, that kind of thing. Something's spooked him out of it in my view. 

Apparently the remaining three candidates are all pro-Remain. Should be fun... 

OK - we're basically in agreement. I hope he hasn't been threatened by a group like Britain First.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Apparently the remaining three candidates are all pro-Remain. Should be fun... 

That seems like a remarkably stupid strategy, however you feel about the EU. Otherwise known as "let's hand this to UKIP on a plate".

Remainers have the choice to vote for the Lib Dems, if they feel more strongly about the issue than anything else. It would therefore be wiser to pick a Labour candidate who is pro-Leave, in order to attract those who are worried about the NHS but who still want to leave the EU.

Except that the Tories, who stand no chance, can put up a candidate who will wind up the few Tory voters enough for them to vote UKIP. The Lib Dems are standing as the party for remainers. It won them a by-election against the Tories and they are hoping it will work again.

Stoke is a Labour stronghold so the turn out is often low. It will be interesting to see if Labour can motivate apathetic voters to turn out and vote for them.

Sporky

Fretwired said:

@Sporky .. OK I apologise if I get the wrong end of the stick.

And similarly I apologise if it seemed like a general swipe - there was an element of poking fun, but I do read your posts with interest.

vale

any remain town with a liberal candidate within a sniff of a swing will win. for me & most other remainers, the eu issue comes above all else, including party loyalty. & disillusion with anything of value ever coming out of the farce the tories are presiding over is growing, even among leavers.
the tories keep stressing the mythical & magical 'will of the people' is behind everything they say and do but that's pseudo-fascist nonsense. among those who voted to leave there were many reasons & expectations of what an appropriate solution might be; single market access is one split among leavers, limited immigration another, matters of sovereignty another.

the trouble with a simplistic 'for or against' plebiscite is that 'against' defines nothing. we know what 'for' is, but everyone can imagine their own version of 'against'.
so it is powerful initially as a uniting strategy for people who are unhappy with the current set up (often for reasons they don't fully grasp, which may be nothing to do with the eu, such as tory austerity). but this alliance of convenience falls apart at the next stage when consensus has to be reached on what anyone wants.

the leave margin is also a joke, which wil be its unravelling. eg, a 2% swing from leave to remain would make leave & remain equal. in political swing terms 2% is a sneeze, that can swing week to week, let alone year to year.
by way of perspective, the swing from tory to lib in the recent richmond by, with libs basing their entire appeal on being the only remain option, was 22%. that's where this is at.
a change of lab leader for a remain (eg, 2nd ref) candidate would really put the cat among the pigeons with swings like that on offer.
i've voted labour (or tactically anti-tory) all my life. but my vote goes to the remain party (or tactically anti-leave) next ge. and every ge thereafter. changing voter demographics takes care of the rest.

brexit is doomed. it's building sandcastles while the tide comes in. but the tories have to make a show of it because support for it is a predominantly tory vice. & ultimately it's not their money they are pissing away playing at it anyway.
they are all rich for life and already use private healthcare & private schools, so sacrificing those to stealth US privatisation & crippling pfi schemes to fund this fuck-up means nothing to them.

and if taxes are cut for the wealthy across the board 'to encourage investment' they stand to win big.

ToneControl

Fretwired said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

That's exactly what I'm getting at. Yesterday he was tweeting about how proud he was to be a candidate: 15 hours after that, he's pulling out. I simply don't believe that he suddenly woke up and thought "Shit, I'm not going to be a doctor any longer". He's been a councillor from 2015 so has some experience of the demands required and I find it hard to believe that he'd be so naive to think that he could combine the doctor and MP roles. 

UKIP wouldn't have to attack him in that way. When you see people still pushing the moronic 'pens, not pencils' at voting stations argument, then it wouldn't take much stretch of imagination to think some would view a candidate with a foreign wife in a less than positive light. Social media babble and idle gossip, that kind of thing. Something's spooked him out of it in my view. 

Apparently the remaining three candidates are all pro-Remain. Should be fun... 

OK - we're basically in agreement. I hope he hasn't been threatened by a group like Britain First.

my guess  would be that's it 's possible that  - given that the  runner party in the GE was UKIP - that having a labour candidate with a  foreign wife from a poor country and kids brought up  abroad might  stimulate  more votes for UKIP.  Similar to La Pen never speaking in English in interviews,  most of her potential voters couldn't care less in France,  but some like every box to be ticked

There could be some  procedural  glitch in his paperwork for bringing his wife to the UK, also I am not sure  if he is adopting her kids , or if it's a long term relationship and they are his - these  things may matter to people who are  very anti-immigration

ToneControl

https://order-order.com/2017/01/25/labour-leave-select-brexiteer-win-stoke/
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/labourleave/pages/270/attachments/original/1485302931/Labour-can-win-in-Stoke-on-Trent_v4.pdf?1485302931

a small  sample poll, but...
it says:

If the Labour party can secure a candidate that has a proven track record of supporting Brexit
and can demonstrate a keen understanding of the issues surrounding the NHS, the Labour
party is more likely to secure victory.
● In the upcoming by-election our poll indicates that Labour will receive 25% (-14),
Conservatives 10% (-12) and UKIP 35% (+13) of the vote share with 24% still
undecided. This is without a Labour candidate selected.
● 30% of voters who indicated ‘Don’t Know’ for the upcoming by-election previously (GE
2015) voted Labour, 10% voted UKIP and 46% for the Lib Dems.
● The Labour party risks potentially losing more votes to UKIP than they possibly could
gain from the Conservatives and Lib Dems put together, therefore must pick a Brexiteer
candidate to nullify this threat.
● 81% of voters who indicated they are going to vote for UKIP in the upcoming
by-election have previously voted for Labour.
● 59% of voters who identified as voting UKIP and 51% of those who are undecided,
would likely vote for Labour ‘if the candidate was a staunch Brexiteer’.
● The Labour party should fight the by-election on two central issues, the NHS (27%) and
pro-Brexit (24%).
● 98% of voters who have voted for the Labour party at some point feel the most important
issue to them in the upcoming election is the NHS.
● Interestingly, Leave voters’ most important issue is a pro-Brexit candidate (34%) and the
NHS is only 17%, however, in contrast the Remainers’ key issue is the NHS (51%) and
anti-Brexit sentiment second, with 15% identifying it as their key voting motivator

and Labour have chosen a remainer candidate

ICBM

That's exactly what I said about six posts ago .

DarnWeight

Stranger and stranger...

David Davies has just refused to commit to publishing the Brexit White Paper before the A50 debate in Parliament.  Wha?  

This is the "acceptable" opportunity to vote down A50 that the Remain side have been looking for, namely "we can't vote for something when we don't know what that something is".  There's either some very deft political gamesmanship at play here, or this government are even more stupid/inept than I could have ever imagined.

quarky

What would be in the White Paper anyway? It is silly to vote on it because regardless of what in the White Paper, the results of Brexit could be vastly different. So why base a vote on a document that may be no reflection of the real world?

Motorhate

DarnWeight said:

Stranger and stranger...

David Davies has just refused to commit to publishing the Brexit White Paper before the A50 debate in Parliament.  Wha?  

This is the "acceptable" opportunity to vote down A50 that the Remain side have been looking for, namely "we can't vote for something when we don't know what that something is".  There's either some very deft political gamesmanship at play here, or this government are even more stupid/inept than I could have ever imagined.

It actually makes sense to me (or at least I can see why they're refusing to commit). They'd effectively be showing their hand to the people they're trying to negotiate with by publishing a white paper, which would immediately put them on the back foot.

DarnWeight

Motorhate said:

DarnWeight said:

Stranger and stranger...

David Davies has just refused to commit to publishing the Brexit White Paper before the A50 debate in Parliament.  Wha?  

This is the "acceptable" opportunity to vote down A50 that the Remain side have been looking for, namely "we can't vote for something when we don't know what that something is".  There's either some very deft political gamesmanship at play here, or this government are even more stupid/inept than I could have ever imagined.

It actually makes sense to me (or at least I can see why they're refusing to commit). They'd effectively be showing their hand to the people they're trying to negotiate with by publishing a white paper, which would immediately put them on the back foot.

I'm afraid I just don't buy the whole "negotiating position" thing anymore.  When the PM can make a speech openly threatening to pursue a tax-haven style economic model if we don't get our way, then what does that say?  This is all just part of the ongoing attempt to rush A50 through Parliament without proper consideration or scrutiny.  The White Paper should put more meat on the bones of May's Brexit speech, although I wouldn't be surprised if it's essentially a straight transcript of that speech, just tarted up somewhat.  Either way the SC ruling was that parliament should decide on this, and so to undermine well-established processes by playing silly buggers like this...well, it stinks.