Is there going to be a guitar glut?

guitars4you · September 2021

A question I've asked for many years now, is how can the major companies keep producing a mass of new instruments each year, when in fact there is no natural 'advancement' within the concept of what a guitar is - We are not selling iPads etc

Add to that, barely any wear and tear that requires a new replacement every few years - We are not selling cars or fridges

A mass of used products already on the market and these are in many ways the biggest competitor to the manufactures - Why buy a new R9 when there is a ton of used R9's from various years

As I said I've asked this question for many years now - Yet the brown boxes continue to be shipped out the exit door of the factories by the shed load - So what do I know

Look at all the large web based companies today - GAK, Peach, Thomann, GuitarGuitar, Gear4Music, Andertons - For all such dealers there strength is selling new products - Some don't even sell used gear - These guys are shipping millions of £'s of new guitars every single year so obviously we are still buying

However, I've said this many times - The actual growth in the market (not talking entry level players) of new players, has barely grown, if at all, for many many years - What has grown is the same players now having 2/3/4/5 or 10/20 instruments - GAS

Blueingreen · September 2021

Obviously I don’t know the numbers or anything, but the take up of guitars during lockdown won’t just be from beginners. I think you’ll have people who dabbled, maybe already own something semi-decent, thinking “I’ve got time on my hands and money I can’t spend on anything else, maybe it’s time I gave this a proper shot. And a good guitar would help”. Or who gigged in the past but gave up through lack of time and fancy another go and can now justify spending more on a guitar than they could when younger.

I think that was obvious from the market itself. It wasn’t just beginners’ guitars that were suddenly scarce and/or hiked in price.

I’d expect some of these guitars to be coming back on the market. Whether there will be enough to cause an over-supply and price drop we’ll see, but my guess would be that there will be some noticeable effect.

rossi · September 2021

It happens a;ll the time .I spent many a happy hour scooping up unloved and unused Squier SE strats and Affinitys from starter packs and parting them out and even keeping one or two.Some times I got the full pack including amps for about 50 quid ,All in good condition except of course for obligatory 1st string missing .It seems that was the crunch point .Once a string broke they gave up .

terada · September 2021

Personally I think a lot of the second hand stuff is there from people who stick with it and trade up rather than those that give up.

I’ve known lots of people who started on a cheap instrument, gave up, but didn’t bother to sell because the hassle and amount they’d get back is less than the value of having (note: a single) guitar around the house.

Also can’t see the prices going down either.

impmann · September 2021

Th prices won't go down... people will continue to ask close to the brand new prices for secondhand units and won't sell them... just like what is happening now.

rze99 · September 2021

some people are going to need to sell things to pay their fuel bills and panic buy Christmas food!

carlos · September 2021

Getting ready!

Bigsby · September 2021

guitars4you said:

A question I've asked for many years now, is how can the major companies keep producing a mass of new instruments each year, ....

It's an interesting question I've wondered about a few times, along with things like 'How does one tiny region of France produce enough grapes to supply the whole world with Champagne?'

Two things that I suspect are significant factors are population growth (about 4 billion people in the mid 70s, now just short of double that), and emerging markets, which might be a bigger factor. However, neither really explain the endless flood of new guitars arriving in existing markets and the fact that most mid-to-high quality guitars just keep on going with minimum maintenance, unlike most consumer products. Yup, it's quite baffling.

DeeTee · September 2021

I suspect there are more new players than we think, they just aren't pissing about on forums like us auld codgers! I know the guitar subreddits have a lot of new players, which I always try to encourage.

Voxman · September 2021

Smellyfingers said:

Sorry if this question has already been explored.

But with lockdown my understanding is many people decided to take up the guitar - I mean why not finally find out if I've got the Keith Richards gene, and those sunburst gibsons on GG look so classic, and it's not real money anyway because I can pay in 2024.

So when some of these people drop out of the music marathon,does that mean that the market will be flooded?

Yes, but only for about 10 seconds as @HarrySeven will snatch all of these up!

hollywoodrox · September 2021

Smellyfingers said:

Sorry if this question has already been explored.

But with lockdown my understanding is many people decided to take up the guitar - I mean why not finally find out if I've got the Keith Richards gene, and those sunburst gibsons on GG look so classic, and it's not real money anyway because I can pay in 2024.

So when some of these people drop out of the music marathon,does that mean that the market will be flooded?

I dream of a guitar glut and cheap prices , we can only hope

hollywoodrox · September 2021

steer said:

There is never a shortage of secondhand Squier guitars, and I dont see that changing.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/154599438840

hollywoodrox · September 2021

£750 for a classic vibe ….. yoiks

Blueingreen · September 2021

rze99 said:

some people are going to need to sell things to pay their fuel bills and panic buy Christmas food!

Basically yes. I knew a guy who, when the local housing market was on the point of a terrible slump and who's most prized possession was his recently acquired flat argued that house prices could not go down because everybody would refuse to sell for less than their current value. As he found out over the next couple of years, that's not how markets work.

jeztone2 · September 2021

When you look at the camera market. The midrange is the one in decline. Lots of beginner photographers would spank £2-3K on the latest Nikon/Canon/Sony etc. So low end cameras sell and so do pro end ones. But your mid range is in decline.

With that as an example I wonder if it will translate to guitar sales? But I still think we’ll heeled beginners would shy away from a custom shop 335 or whatever. Simply because of fear.

Whitecat · September 2021

I think the first victim of any financial slump will be new sales. Prices are getting insane, as we all-too-well know... and as a result there will be more competition for used stuff, which for reasons already mentioned I don't think is going to feature quite the glut of stuff that some people think it will.

Not everyone of course, but a lot of people who bought instruments with the best of lockdown intentions probably are in a financial position where they really don't ever *need* to sell a comparatively inexpensive guitar. So if it looks good on a wall or ties the room together by sitting in the corner, it will be just as useful to them there.

thegummy · September 2021

ToneControl said:

some well-off people will buy a pro-level instrument to learn on
definitely not typical for beginners though

I always remember a random Youtube video I watched years ago where a guy was demonstrating where he was at after a few months of playing and one of the comments was "how have you got a Fender after only playing a few months?"

Always found it funny that the person who wrote it thought that adults spending their own money would stick to mum and dad's rules of only being allowed a cheap one til they stick to it.

Anacharsis · September 2021

Maybe we see new prices, which have been going up, flatten a bit as many people got the buying out of their systems (Fender had record revenues last year), and/or find more to like on the used market. Maybe.

crunchman · September 2021

guitars4you said:

A question I've asked for many years now, is how can the major companies keep producing a mass of new instruments each year, when in fact there is no natural 'advancement' within the concept of what a guitar is - We are not selling iPads etc

Add to that, barely any wear and tear that requires a new replacement every few years - We are not selling cars or fridges

A mass of used products already on the market and these are in many ways the biggest competitor to the manufactures - Why buy a new R9 when there is a ton of used R9's from various years

As I said I've asked this question for many years now - Yet the brown boxes continue to be shipped out the exit door of the factories by the shed load - So what do I know

Look at all the large web based companies today - GAK, Peach, Thomann, GuitarGuitar, Gear4Music, Andertons - For all such dealers there strength is selling new products - Some don't even sell used gear - These guys are shipping millions of £'s of new guitars every single year so obviously we are still buying

However, I've said this many times - The actual growth in the market (not talking entry level players) of new players, has barely grown, if at all, for many many years - What has grown is the same players now having 2/3/4/5 or 10/20 instruments - GAS

Nail on head.

A lot of those are in the hands of baby boomers who will pop their clogs (or need to sell them to fund nursing homes) over the next couple of decades.

Add all the new manufacture and there will be a glut for those who are young enough to take advantage of it.

SPECTRUM001 · September 2021

crunchman said:

guitars4you said:

A question I've asked for many years now, is how can the major companies keep producing a mass of new instruments each year, when in fact there is no natural 'advancement' within the concept of what a guitar is - We are not selling iPads etc

Add to that, barely any wear and tear that requires a new replacement every few years - We are not selling cars or fridges

A mass of used products already on the market and these are in many ways the biggest competitor to the manufactures - Why buy a new R9 when there is a ton of used R9's from various years

As I said I've asked this question for many years now - Yet the brown boxes continue to be shipped out the exit door of the factories by the shed load - So what do I know

Look at all the large web based companies today - GAK, Peach, Thomann, GuitarGuitar, Gear4Music, Andertons - For all such dealers there strength is selling new products - Some don't even sell used gear - These guys are shipping millions of £'s of new guitars every single year so obviously we are still buying

However, I've said this many times - The actual growth in the market (not talking entry level players) of new players, has barely grown, if at all, for many many years - What has grown is the same players now having 2/3/4/5 or 10/20 instruments - GAS

Nail on head.

A lot of those are in the hands of baby boomers who will pop their clogs (or need to sell them to fund nursing homes) over the next couple of decades.

Add all the new manufacture and there will be a glut for those who are young enough to take advantage of it.

I have also been pondering this for a while - thousands upon thousands of new guitars being built every year; which do not decompose nor break down.

Where do all the guitars go ?

Regarding the original question - yep I just visited my bruv and sister in law, who bought a cheap and quite nasty Fender acoustic during the first lockdown. It is sat in the corner gathering dust - still got it’s original strings and sticker and been played only a handful of times. But she hasn’t sold it - reckon because she doesn’t want to feel the error of the financial loss just yet.

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Is there going to be a guitar glut?

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