EU Referendum Vote - Poll

fretmeister

Apparently Farage is making an (extra) arse of himself today.

http://infacts.org/farages-catalogue-errors/

Not really a surprise.

ToneControl

I tied to find a timetable of events if Leave happens

this was what I found:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/31/what-happens-next-if-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu

Fretwired

fretmeister said:

Nice little article on the 2 different approaches used on the Immigration promises.

1: Tell leave supporters that leaving will lower immigration.

2: Tell Asian voters that leaving will lower European immigration to allow MORE Asian immigration.

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/campaign-to-leave-the-eu-wants-to-cut-non-eu-immigration-while-telling-british-asians-it-will-increase-it/

In reality it could as the Leave campaign want a points based system based on needs. If curry restaurants need to recruit more chefs, if the NHS need more doctors and if people here want to bring relatives over then this could happen. At the moment it's virtually impossible to get say a curry chef into the UK.

It's hardly a secret though .. it's in the FT ...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/94adcefa-1dd5-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15.html#axzz4AtxQrWUK

It's behind a paywall ... text below:

Vote Leave is hoping to secure the backing of British Asians by telling them that if Britain quits the EU, it will mean more immigration from elsewhere in the world.

The official Out campaign is drawing up leaflets aimed at Punjabi, Hindi and Urdu speakers arguing that a British exit from the EU would help to stem the flow of Eastern Europeans into the UK — allowing more incomers from Commonwealth countries to take their place.

Saqib Bhatti, a board member for Vote Leave, said English-language leaflets had been sent out to Muslim voters, while others in different languages were set to follow.

The pamphlets argue that people with EU passports can just “walk in” to Britain.

“South Asian immigrants have ancestors who fought in the world wars, they sacrificed a lot, they speak the language, they have the skills, they are well educated,” said Mr Bhatti. “But they find it hard to come in compared to other individuals from Europe who may not speak the language, understand the culture or have the skills.”

The leaflets also emphasise the increasingly far-right tinge to politics in Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Germany and Denmark. “We don’t want them influencing our laws and our policies,” said Mr Bhatti.

He also said a leaflet from the rival Conservative In campaign promised to stop non-EU families from coming to Britain.

Vote Leave recently marshalled 80 business and community leaders from Commonwealth backgrounds to write to David Cameron calling for Britain to take back “autonomy in the field of migration”. The letter said: “Whilst EU citizens enjoy freedom of movement and no restrictions on their stay in the UK, those coming to the UK from outside of the EU face greater restrictions.”

The campaigning may come as a surprise to the millions of white working-class citizens who plan to vote Leave because they want all immigration to be severely curtailed. The government has promised to bring net migration below 100,000 a year; the most recent number was 362,000.

A recent poll by Opinium suggested immigration was the issue most likely to affect how Britons will vote: 49 per cent said it would influence their decision. Among Out supporters it is the primary factor for 72 per cent.

Concerns about immigration from eastern Europe are not confined to white working-class areas.

On Brick Lane, in East London, famous for its curry houses, immigration will be a factor in people’s decision-making. Ahaduz Zaman, working at Zaman Brothers Cash & Carry, has not yet decided how to vote in June. But he said: “If we’re not in the EU they will be able to stop so many Europeans coming over — too many coming here, taking jobs and using public services.”

Paul Karir, manager of Karir & Sons, a clothing shop, complained about East Europeans claiming British benefits. “I think the country is full at the moment,” he said.

Vote Leave argues that second-generation immigrants bear the brunt of new migration because they tend to live in the same areas and compete for the same low-skilled jobs and housing. They will get a vote in the referendum while recent incomers from EU countries will not.

The argument that limiting European immigrants will give Commonwealth citizens easier access has been increasingly put forward by the Out campaign.

Gisela Stuart, the MP who chairs Vote Leave, has questioned why a Bulgarian taxi driver can claim child benefit for his offspring in another country.

“Immigration matters, and it is the first and second-generation immigrants who are concerned about immigration,” she says. “Families of second or third-generation immigrants from the Indian subcontinent find it really difficult: they say, why do we have to jump so many hurdles just to bring in relatives for a wedding?”

Priti Patel, the employment minister, was appointed by Mr Cameron as Britain’s first “UK Indian diaspora champion”. She is using that platform to undermine the Cameron-led Remain campaign as she attacks the government’s “biased” immigration policy.

“Temples and gurdwaras have difficulties bringing priests in. Our communities struggle to get visas for kabbadi players to come and share their phenomenal sporting talents in this country,” she told India’s Economic Times.

Ms Patel warned this week that curry restaurants were being deprived of high-quality chefs because “uncontrolled immigration” from the EU had led to tighter controls on talented migrants from elsewhere.

Pasha Khandaker, the president of the Bangladesh Caterers Association, said leaving the EU would ease the staff shortage in his industry. He is organising an anti-EU protest outside parliament — although the police will not allow it until July, weeks after the referendum.

But Seema Malhotra, a Labour MP, accused Brexit campaigners of blaming Brussels for decisions made by British ministers.

She said the government could take other measures to deal with the shortage of Indian and Bangladeshi restaurant workers, such as putting them back on the “shortage occupation” list.

Keith Vaz, another Labour MP, accused Ms Patel of “divide and rule politics of the worst kind”.

ToneControl

here are the average (weighted mean) tariffs for all countries:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS

it's completely not scary

if we revert to WTO tariffs on Brexit, it looks like around 1.5% max each way. This will be a trivial increase to the costs of goods going to and from the EU, and our govt (i.e. us) would gather more on the tariffs since more trade is into the UK

As I understand the EU  cannot impose a larger rate than the published WTO rates, which average 1.5% for the EU countries

ToneControl

before we joined the EEC, we had this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value-added_tax_(United_Kingdom)

so, typically about 8% sales tax, not 20% like now with VAT

we could end that if we were outside the EU, and get cheaper guitars 

Phil_aka_Pip

ToneControl said:

before we joined the EEC, we had this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value-added_tax_(United_Kingdom)

so, typically about 8% sales tax, not 20% like now with VAT

we could end that if we were outside the EU, and get cheaper guitars 

thats me definitely out then

ToneControl

Evilmags said:

The issue is not immigration it is paying the vast debts of the south

but people keep telling me it's the Bankers' fault

I should rack up a credit card debt and try that logic

fretmeister

Individual governments set the vat levels on identified products.

We already have the ability to lower the 20% vat rate down to about 5% and we don't. It's not going be be reduced if we leave, no matter what the leavers claim.

They'll just keep taxing Joe Public and keep allowing corporate avoidance.

ToneControl

fretmeister said:

Individual governments set the vat levels on identified products.

We already have the ability to lower the 20% vat rate down to about 5% and we don't. It's not going be be reduced if we leave, no matter what the leavers claim.

They'll just keep taxing Joe Public and keep allowing corporate avoidance.

no, the EU minimum is 15%

5% is only for specific necessities

I assume they will keep charging it, but could be more flexible in the future

fretmeister

ToneControl said:

fretmeister said:

Individual governments set the vat levels on identified products.

We already have the ability to lower the 20% vat rate down to about 5% and we don't. It's not going be be reduced if we leave, no matter what the leavers claim.

They'll just keep taxing Joe Public and keep allowing corporate avoidance.

no, the EU minimum is 15%

5% is only for specific necessities

I assume they will keep charging it, but could be more flexible in the future

I'm sure it will be.

It will probably go up.

ICBM

If they cut VAT they'll just have to put income tax up. They need the money one way or the other.

It's arguable that a VAT cut and a tax rise would benefit the worst off, but hit the middle classes more… so unlikely to be as popular with Tory voters.

Modulus_Amps

Fortheloveofguitar

My money's on Farage out performing that weasel Cameron tonight

seany65

I had thunk the jocks would scupper any chance of 'Brexit',seeing as how most of them want to be in the EU, but I've come to the conclusion that if those jocks who want 'independance' from Britain actually all vote 'Out' and Britain actually leaves, they can jump up and down screaming "We dinna wanna leave, yer Sassanach bar-stewards, so we've got to have another 'independance from Britain' vote!"

If that vote succeeds, then they can all throw away their 'independance' from Britain by giving it away to the EU!

Everyone's happy! Althought the jocks would have to give up the £ and take Euro and give control over their economy to the european central bank etc. but that is what they want, isn't it?

seany65

Why is anyone assuming BoJo will be PM in the case of 'Brexit'?

Chalky

fretmeister;1100872" said:

karltone said:



oddball said:



ToneControl said:



oddball said:

Stay - economy is slowing down already up to the vote due to people curbing their spending waiting to see the outcome, if we leave its going to get worse whilst they then wait to see what happens and so the domino effect happens as things nose dive and people still hold onto their cash. Personally i couldnt give a monkeys about immigration, as long as they come to work and pay tax I see no problem (as the vast majority do)







nobody can show that the economy will get worse

Even if it did for a bit, long-term could be way better, as many believe





nobody can say it will get worse except the CBI and the majority of Blue Chip Company CEO's - I've seen nothing to personally convince me our economy will be better off for leaving.










The EU is a customs union so will naturally inflate prices due its structure, which also means big companies will make more profit hence why in general they want to stay in the EU. It is not by default a free trade area because there is cost of membership and also tariffs placed on products etc being imported into the EU. As EU consumers we end up paying more for being in a customs union. I'm not saying this in a negative way you have to weigh up the pros and cons and make a decision either way to the benefits/downsides of the EU.

I think in the short term there would be a hit if we left though i don't think it will be major one, more like a jab, in the long term the economy would be much better off out, but this also depends on the trade deal negotiated. 










Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union (partly drafted by the UK) states that when a member leaves the EU all their agreements automatically come to an end 24 months after. Irrespective of whether we have negotiated new ones

At that point the leaver is then subject to tariffs. These are automatic for anyone outside the EU.

While there is the chance of minimising the tariffs it would need all remaining member states to agree to a Treaty change. It has to be unanimous.

So it won't happen.

Are you saying they will automatically impose tariffs?

eSully

Farage is the remain campaigns best weapon - He's having an absolutely howler on the ITV audience debate. Even managed to tell one woman to "Calm Down Love" when asking her question 

Fortheloveofguitar

eSully;1101507" said:

Farage is the remain campaigns best weapon - He's having an absolutely howler on the ITV audience debate. Even managed to tell one woman to "Calm Down Love" when asking her question 

Would hardly call his showing a 'howler' Jeez!

The woman who asked the question had no intention of letting him answer even before reading it. She was just you're typical idiot there to shout him down and fire the good old race card

hywelg

I was undecided, now I've made up my mind. @ICBM mentioned something earlier about always being in a minority of one when it comes to EU policy decisions, or words to that effect. Tony Blair argued, when he went back on his promise about a referendum before treaty change, argued we should be in the tent making our views known. He got nowhere. Now Cameron has basically had his beer thrown in his face, he got very very little by way of concessions, and nothing really important.

So, lets face it, we are out of step with the views of other EU countries in so many ways. We are only going to get knocked back time after time if we stay. So its better for all concerned that we leave.

My other main gripe, isn't immigration per se. Its more population growth. Politicians are frit to death of offending anyone and will ignore a problem until it slaps them in the face. This country is full (in all the wrong places). You can't move during rush hour, even is a medium sized town like Nottingham, heaven knows what its like in London and Brum. We have increased the population by some 10 million in 50 years and we haven't done it at all well. House prices, health service, schools, traffic etc. etc.. has been caused by a lack of political nous. Its far too easy to blame the lot what was in before. Take for example the Gatwick/Heathrow runway. Did any politician ever think to ask 'how many people now using Gatwick'Heathrow would rather not'? None. They're all too London centric. And far too timid, if we keep getting 300,000 extra per year, the consequence is housing shortage, and the politicians will have to take additional powers to force through planning applications, against the will of the people in the locality. But they're all to frit. SO we'll muddle along, badly.

We must cut population growth. It is not tolerable at the current rate of growth. Inside the EU  we cannot do that.

All other arguments are just annoyances to me. That we cannot prevent prisoners having the vote, that we cannot throw out people who have nothing but bad intentions towards us, that our vote in the EU is just one of 28 or however many there are, even though by GDP, EU contributions, population, we are ten times the size/weight of others. WE have to pay benefits to children of migrants, even though the children are not here!, the Prime Minister of Hungary/Bulgaria (one of the two ) admitted that for them this flow of money was an important source of income for their country!! So much more is wrong with the EU that I will only get myself worked up typing it, but its of no consequence. The main reasons are as above.

Yes it might hurt us financially for a while. Yes the conservatives might implode, so what. If Scotland leaves let them, but they leave the Sterling zone too. We'll manage. But, also, being in the EU is hurting us NOW. The EU economy is moribund, but more worryingly, the economy is being run by Germany, mostly for the benefit of Germany. The whole idea was based on wishful thinking, why else did they let the  Greeks in when the knew that they lied.

I think Leave will surpise everyone. People are really fed up of Politicians and the political class. Exactly why Trump is doing well in the US. I personally want a more straight talking politician, a level headed one, with some common sense. One who will stand up to the media and bid them bollocks. One who will rein in the fat cats and corporations and make them contribute properly. One who doesn't throw money around that we don't have (yes you Jeremy) to buy votes.

Fretwired

eSully said:

Farage is the remain campaigns best weapon - He's having an absolutely howler on the ITV audience debate. Even managed to tell one woman to "Calm Down Love" when asking her question 

I didn't see it that way. I agree with @Fortheloveofguitar - the woman who asked the question had an agenda and was hostile from the get go. She had no intention of letting him answer on a subject that is frankly irrelevant.

Cameron actually told lies and half truths. If you watch the ITV News after the debate  they called him out. The first was his comment about economists. He said something to the effect that over 80% of economists agreed with him. In reality 4,000 were polled, around 400 answered and of those 80% agreed. So in effect only 8% of economists agreed - lie. He said that under his premiership the UK created more jobs that the rest of the EU put together. He was being disingenuous - for example Germany created more jobs but the EU was let down by job losses in Greece. Misrepresenting statistics - half truth.

The man cannot be trusted.