EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Drew_TNBD

The only reason I can really think to vote remain is to be part of the hip crowd, and the only reason I can think to vote leave is to be a contrarian fuck. I usually go for the later.

hobbio

I just think that, on balance, we're better off not being a part of the EU. I've no issue with being European, but not at the expense of being British.

ICBM

Drew_fx said:

So has anyone changed their mind during these 20 odd pages?

Yes. I've gone from almost certain to vote Remain to absolutely certain to vote Remain.

Limehouse_Blues

EU law can change a good deal more during the EU legislative process than bills going through the Westminster Parliament often do. At Westminster, with a majority in the HofC, the government pretty much does what it will unless its own MPs rebel. The dynamic in the European Parliament is different and Parliament's changes to Commission proposals are often extensive. While it's true that in the EU the ability to initiate legislation rests with the Commission it is a mistake to think of the Commission as autonomous. Real power (like in other supra-national set ups) rests in the capital cities of the Member States. That power is exercised via the Council. Among the Member States represented in Council the UK's is a pretty powerful voice. On a separate note, one of the reasons the immigration/benefits issue is such a particular challenge for UK politicians is the sacred cow of universal benefits. In many other EU countries what someone can take out of the common pot is directly linked to what they've put in. Not so here. Even with their contributions based systems many other Member States opted to delay free movement from the 2004 Eastern European countries. The UK could have opted likewise but chose not too.

Rocker

Drew_fx said:

The only reason I can really think to vote remain is to be part of the hip crowd, and the only reason I can think to vote leave is to be a contrarian fuck. I usually go for the later.

Off all the daft reasons for voting in a particular way, this takes the biscuit.....

karltone

My internal conflict concerns the Euro. My opinion is that the euro will possibly cease to exist or alternatively may live on but will need major reforms which will certainly change the EU from its present state. I'm airing on the side that the euro will not survive or will be not used in as many member countries. With the on going crisis in Greece as well as France & Italy being in a debt trap, i see the EU and the Euro has many years of trouble ahead. This begs the question whether we are better being in or better being out, either way we will be affected.

Fortheloveofguitar

Those who say we have to be in the EU to change policy, treaty change etc are dreamers

How long have we been in it? And we've come away with nothing of any significance at all

Emp_Fab

UnclePsychosis said:

@emp_fab

A study by LSE had found that immigrants have no negative effect on UK wages and that immigrants actually create opportunities for British born workers.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/may/11/eu-migrants-had-no-negative-effect-on-uk-wages-says-lse

Depends on who you believe doesn't it ?  http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/269

Drew_TNBD

Rocker said:

Drew_fx said:

The only reason I can really think to vote remain is to be part of the hip crowd, and the only reason I can think to vote leave is to be a contrarian fuck. I usually go for the later.

Off all the daft reasons for voting in a particular way, this takes the biscuit.....

Makes more sense than half the shite written here!

ToneControl

UnclePsychosis said:

Gove caught telling big fat fibs again.

http://www.ifs.org.uk/about/blog/346

Not a fib, just not adding a disclaimer. A tiny infraction compared to the amount of massive, ornate and complicated lies from the remain campaign

As far as I can see, the IFS have confirmed the £8b figure is correct, he has simply omitted to add their warning that if GDP drops, there would be less to spend. This is pretty obvious, and is hardly likely to have been included in Gove's statement.

It is a core part of "remain" dogma that the UK GDP would shrink after Brexit. It's not proven, and could clearly go either way

Therefore his remark is not a big fat fib, unlike dozens of completely misleading or incorrect statements from Osborne and his remain friends, for which many youtube clips are available showing them unable to defend their claims in interviews

The IFS were quick to attempt to avoid their data being used by Gove. It's worth noting the 11% of their funding is paid by the EU 

Having said all that, I don't think Gove would spend it on the NHS anyway

Fretwired

Oh well .. looks like voting is pointless as even if we vote to leave most MPs are for Remain and they won't abide by the result.

ToneControl

digitalscream said:

Emp_Fab said:

Well, I stand corrected - or at least admit to being fleeced by the propaganda about unelected officials.  

After careful reconsideration, I have decided to stick with my plan to vote Leave because of the fact that we are a very popular destination for folk to come and work - far more popular than other countries are for us to go and work.  With the exception of France, there are more EU citizens in the UK than vice-versa :- http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354  Massively so in some cases - e.g. 883,000 Poles in the UK vs 35,000 Brits in Poland etc.

This applies to every country in the EU (bar the French) - everyone seems to be flocking here to work, and that can only have one outcome on wages.

Comparing expats country-by-country is irrelevant, really - and if you wanted to go down that route, you could just as easily talk about the 790,000 British citizens in Spain thanks to the free travel across EU borders, versus the 50k Spaniards in Britain.

Not really comparable I think

The UK people in Spain are almost all pensioners, and send a massive boost to the Spanish economy by bringing cash earned in the UK to spend in Spain. Also all their healhcare costs are paid by the UK Dept of Health. They are providing jobs in Spain, rather than taking jobs in Spain

ICBM

karltone said:

My internal conflict concerns the Euro. My opinion is that the euro will possibly cease to exist or alternatively may live on but will need major reforms which will certainly change the EU from its present state. I'm airing on the side that the euro will not survive or will be not used in as many member countries. With the on going crisis in Greece as well as France & Italy being in a debt trap, i see the EU and the Euro has many years of trouble ahead. This begs the question whether we are better being in or better being out, either way we will be affected.

This is the only reason I don't think the UK should (or will) join the Euro in the foreseeable future even if we stay in. I thought we should have in the first place, but I would admit to being wrong now. The mistake was for the optimists in the EU to get the upper hand and allow in countries which were not economically convergent enough (with deliberately falsified figures in some cases, eg Greece) and hope that the Euro would force the convergence afterwards. In fact the opposite has happened and it's put an enormous strain on the whole concept.

But we will certainly be affected by whatever happens to the Euro even if we leave.

Fortheloveofguitar said:

How long have we been in it? And we've come away with nothing of any significance at all

It's actually hard to know where to start with how wrong that is.

Compare Britain in the early 1970s to Britain today.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fortheloveofguitar said:

How long have we been in it? And we've come away with nothing of any significance at all

It's actually hard to know where to start with how wrong that is.

Compare Britain in the early 1970s to Britain today.

There's a lot about early 1970s Britain to admire - the music, strong working class communities, well paid jobs in industry, low unemployment, your GP visited you at home, state funded university and polytechnic education ....

ToneControl

UnclePsychosis said:

@emp_fab

A study by LSE had found that immigrants have no negative effect on UK wages and that immigrants actually create opportunities for British born workers.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/may/11/eu-migrants-had-no-negative-effect-on-uk-wages-says-lse

must have been a crap study

I haven't read the whole text yet. It's at http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Early on they set out their premise:

 Since immigration increases the total number of people in work or looking for employment, does that mean that UK workers must have been harmed by this increased competition for jobs? The short answer is ‘no’. Believing otherwise is called the ‘lump of labour fallacy’. There would be harm only if the total number of jobs is fixed and only where immigrants compete for a particular job. But since immigrants also consume local services and goods, this increases demand and so raises job prospects of those who produce those goods and services. Adding an immigrant raises the population, just like a rise in the birth rate or a fall in the death rate. Over the last 100 years, the UK population has grown by around 50% but the unemployment rate has not trended inexorably upward. But even if there is no reason to think that immigration should increase unemployment, is it not obvious that an increase in the supply of workers must drive wages down? Again, it isn’t necessarily so. Alongside the increased demand that a rising population brings, greater movement of labour allows countries to specialise in what they are best at, just like increased trade. Firms will change the mix of their products to account for the new skills available to them. Immigrants, especially if they are more skilled, can boost productivity. All these effects will tend to increase wages. 

I'd say that many professions do have a fixed level of demand, which would not grow much when adding a few % population. If we double the amount of builders, that doesn't double the amount of houses needing work

Therefore I'd say that, for many people their jobs will have been affected. Looking at big-picture averages won't change this

Now I know that my plumber mate used to get £300 a day 10 years ago. Now it's £200 a day

We know that up to 1m Poles came here, many of whom are excellent plumbers/builders etc

I have recently been getting very talented Polish lads working on my house for £12/hour. 4-10 years ago I was paying £30/hour or more for UK-born workers

Bringing offshore workers into UK IT affected UK salaries, as I assume many forumites here can confirm

ToneControl

Drew_fx said:

So has anyone changed their mind during these 20 odd pages?

yes

I was sure "leave" was the correct choice

Now I'm extremely sure

ToneControl

oddball said:

Stay - economy is slowing down already up to the vote due to people curbing their spending waiting to see the outcome, if we leave its going to get worse whilst they then wait to see what happens and so the domino effect happens as things nose dive and people still hold onto their cash. Personally i couldnt give a monkeys about immigration, as long as they come to work and pay tax I see no problem (as the vast majority do)

nobody can show that the economy will get worse

Even if it did for a bit, long-term could be way better, as many believe

ToneControl

ICBM said:

karltone said:

My internal conflict concerns the Euro. My opinion is that the euro will possibly cease to exist or alternatively may live on but will need major reforms which will certainly change the EU from its present state. I'm airing on the side that the euro will not survive or will be not used in as many member countries. With the on going crisis in Greece as well as France & Italy being in a debt trap, i see the EU and the Euro has many years of trouble ahead. This begs the question whether we are better being in or better being out, either way we will be affected.

This is the only reason I don't think the UK should (or will) join the Euro in the foreseeable future even if we stay in. I thought we should have in the first place, but I would admit to being wrong now. The mistake was for the optimists in the EU to get the upper hand and allow in countries which were not economically convergent enough (with deliberately falsified figures in some cases, eg Greece) and hope that the Euro would force the convergence afterwards. In fact the opposite has happened and it's put an enormous strain on the whole concept.

But we will certainly be affected by whatever happens to the Euro even if we leave.

Fortheloveofguitar said:

How long have we been in it? And we've come away with nothing of any significance at all

It's actually hard to know where to start with how wrong that is.

Compare Britain in the early 1970s to Britain today.

I think he was saying the UK has not won many changes in the way the EU works

ToneControl

Chalky said:

Drew_fx;1100010" said:

And you can't win with you guys - you say "stay in so we can affect change" yet you take the piss when people (IE: UKIP) try to do exactly that.

Yes but people like you and me don't understand that whilst the French and Germans have ignored us for decades in EU decisions, they are now going to listen to us if we vote Remain! The reason for their change of heart? Because......er......well......er......it must be a Super Secret Reason!

Go on @UnclePsychosis, tell us why they will listen to us and so enable 'change from within'!

they won't, as you know already

The French vetoed us joining the EEC in the first place

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/27/newsid_4187000/4187714.stm

However, when the Euro collapses for good, we may see some new ideas then

Limehouse_Blues

ToneControl said:

ICBM said:

karltone said:

My internal conflict concerns the Euro. My opinion is that the euro will possibly cease to exist or alternatively may live on but will need major reforms which will certainly change the EU from its present state. I'm airing on the side that the euro will not survive or will be not used in as many member countries. With the on going crisis in Greece as well as France & Italy being in a debt trap, i see the EU and the Euro has many years of trouble ahead. This begs the question whether we are better being in or better being out, either way we will be affected.

This is the only reason I don't think the UK should (or will) join the Euro in the foreseeable future even if we stay in. I thought we should have in the first place, but I would admit to being wrong now. The mistake was for the optimists in the EU to get the upper hand and allow in countries which were not economically convergent enough (with deliberately falsified figures in some cases, eg Greece) and hope that the Euro would force the convergence afterwards. In fact the opposite has happened and it's put an enormous strain on the whole concept.

But we will certainly be affected by whatever happens to the Euro even if we leave.

Fortheloveofguitar said:

How long have we been in it? And we've come away with nothing of any significance at all

It's actually hard to know where to start with how wrong that is.

Compare Britain in the early 1970s to Britain today.

I think he was saying the UK has not won many changes in the way the EU works

The UK was instrumental in the EU's eastward expansion. The 2004 accession of former eastern bloc countries was the culmination of a long process. Some other member states were hostile to the accession of these new countries or wanted the expansion to proceed more slowly. The UK wanted expansion and the sooner the better, seeing it as a move that might dilute the power of the Franco German axis. 2004 was a good example of the UK getting its way in the EU. Our rebate and opt outs from Schengen and the euro are also testament to the extent to which the UK (compared with smaller, poorer member states) is able to use real clout to have its cake.