EU 'demands' we start exit procedures NOW

thomasross20

For the record, I think the referendum was a bad idea. 

Same for Scottish Independence. 

Not because of the outcomes. 

Because there weren't enough hard facts. 

For both I was spoiled vote, basically. That must be an astonishing revelation for some I'm not a big nasty leave voter!

Now the UK is divided as well as Scotland. 

It's like tribalism, and we can see it on this forum right now (disappointingly). 

Leaders are meant to steer the ship and keep us together instead of creating divides. 

Chalky

digitalscream;1126267" said:

Emp_Fab said:

I don't buy the 'advisory' thing.  People are expecting the Govt to act on the referendum.  To back out, quoting the 'advisory' line would be political suicide for every one of them involved.  Ain't gonna happen.





Equally, the negotiations once Article 50 is triggered are also political suicide. Nobody who gets involved with this is going to have a political career left once the current term is up, because - no matter how the negotiations go - there will be a huge proportion of the population who are significantly unhappy with what we get from it.

Nobody's in a rush because nobody's quite sure how to proceed (or even who we need at the table, given that we haven't got anybody with the right skillset in government and nobody's ever done this before), and the remaining EU states know they're currently holding all the cards.

In fact, the best bet (from the politicians' perspective) might even be to delay it for a long time so that Article 50's two year timescale spans the next General Election (nobody with a brain will want to change our entire negotiating team right in the middle of it) - trigger it when we've got the EU presidency, maybe?

The steps to be followed will be something like:
A) Select the new PM. Could be Boris but he needs to check he has the backing in the Tory party.
Select the new Cabinet. New leader needs ministers he can trust, and a mix of Euroscepticism and ministerial experience.
C) Build the negotiating team. Civil servants and external consultants with the right experience.
D) Develop the negotiation strategy. How are you going to approach it, what is your target outcome, what do you want the other side to THINK is your target outcome, assess the other side's likely stance on all the different items up for negotiation, what tactics are you going to use, how do you manage the message to parliament and public, plan your actions and timescales, evaluate support among EU states and any leverage via EU states, decide where and when negotiations will begin and the timetable you will push for.
E) Declare Article50 and begin negotiations.

Drew_TNBD

I think there will be a general election within the next year or so. I think that will result in the two thirds of parliament that are pro-Remainers to throw away the results of the referendum, and I don't think we will end up leaving at all.

But it will have caused some amount of reform.

thomasross20

Drew_fx said:

I think there will be a general election within the next year or so. I think that will result in the two thirds of parliament that are pro-Remainers to throw away the results of the referendum, and I don't think we will end up leaving at all.

But it will have caused some amount of reform.

I don't the EU would allow it, to be honest. They look p!ssed.

Drew_TNBD

thomasross20 said:

Drew_fx said:

I think there will be a general election within the next year or so. I think that will result in the two thirds of parliament that are pro-Remainers to throw away the results of the referendum, and I don't think we will end up leaving at all.

But it will have caused some amount of reform.

I don't the EU would allow it, to be honest. They look p!ssed.

The EU has no say in any of what I said. It's all internal politics, but if Article 50 is never called then we remain a member of the EU.

thomasross20

Oh, you're assuming we haven't left by then? 

Sporky

Drew_fx said:

I think there will be a general election within the next year or so.

That seems likely.

I wonder if most of the campaigns will amount to "Please don't vote for us" as no-one wants to be responsible for either what happens in the leaving process (and thereafter), or what happens if they get elected and don't leave.

This must be a jolly awkward time to be a UK politician. Not that I feel enormous sympathy for them.

chillidoggy

Drew_fx said:

I think there will be a general election within the next year or so. I think that will result in the two thirds of parliament that are pro-Remainers to throw away the results of the referendum, and I don't think we will end up leaving at all.

But it will have caused some amount of reform.

I'm not sure whether your first point will happen, no-one is, but I sincerely hope you're right about the second.

Chalky

If Labour is falling apart, the next PM might well go to the polls for a mandate.

ICBM

thomasross20 said:

It was more than half the country...

Sorry to keep repeating this, but it's an extremely important point.

It was not more than half the country. It wasn't even more than half the electorate - only 37%.

While there may be good and bad reasons why the 28% of the electorate who didn't vote chose not to do so, don't confuse a majority of the vote with a majority of the country, they aren't the same thing at all.

thomasross20

ICBM said:

thomasross20 said:

It was more than half the country...

Sorry to keep repeating this, but it's an extremely important point.

It was not more than half the country. It wasn't even more than half the electorate - only 37%.

While there may be good and bad reasons why the 28% of the electorate who didn't vote chose not to do so, don't confuse a majority of the vote with a majority of the country, they aren't the same thing at all.

You're right - it was more than half the vote, I should say

Maybe, like in Oz, people should be forced to vote? 

People on here are saying a lot of the country are dim, so does that mean some sort of IQ test (or vote-related test prior to actual voting) is carried out?

BloodEagle

Interesting perspective copied and pasted from the guardians comments section: If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost. Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron. With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership. How? Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor. And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew. The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction. The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50? Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders? Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated. If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act. The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice. When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take. All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

Chalky

BloodEagle;1126361" said:

Interesting perspective copied and pasted from the guardians comments section:







If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.



Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.



With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.



How?



Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.



And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.



The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.



The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?



Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?



Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.



If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.



The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.



When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.



All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

Rubbish. Just a Remainer trying to paint doom and gloom. Largest change to this country in 40 years and he thinks no politician will want to lead it? Proves he has zero experience of politicians.

Axe_meister

Purely from an economic point of view article 50 should be invoked ASAP. One thing the markets don't like is uncertainty. As to whoever invokes it, it would best be Cameron as his political career is already over.

Fretwired

Listened to R4 this morning - an EU Commissioner was speaking. There's a growing realisation that the UK won't be leaving. Cameron has resigned deliberately to create a vacuum - come October he hopes May is PM. By then the rumbling about the result will have reached Westminster and May could call a GE next Spring on the Referendum result on a mandate to stay in  - the Tories could win a landslide victory and ignore the referendum. I get a sense we're not going anywhere.

Myranda

thomasross20 said:

For the record, I think the referendum was a bad idea. 

Same for Scottish Independence. 

Not because of the outcomes. 

Because there weren't enough hard facts. 

For both I was spoiled vote, basically. That must be an astonishing revelation for some I'm not a big nasty leave voter!

Now the UK is divided as well as Scotland. 

It's like tribalism, and we can see it on this forum right now (disappointingly). 

Leaders are meant to steer the ship and keep us together instead of creating divides. 

See, this is the whole point of (good) Democracy.

We the plebs, elect people who have our best interests at heart, and the information to make decisions.

Now, we have a very tribal system in the UK where the colour of a candidates tie or their personality seems to matter more to many voters than their ability to make decisions, specialist knowledge or honesty. Many of the politicians are wealthy types who seem to have the interests of the wealthy in heart more than they do the well being of the majority... but the principal still stands.

We don't have the time to dedicate to learning the full socio-political and economic background to the EU and the ramifications of leaving.

We have people claiming we don't make our own laws and that the EU does it all - ignoring the fact that we have all sorts of different laws on guns/drugs/labour(working not political party)/health&safety/etc to many countries in Europe...

We have politicians claiming we'll put £350 million a week into the NHS - forgetting that while we pay £350 million a week to the EU we get back around £200 million in subsidies...

We have remain campaigners saying World War 3 will break out the day after we exit...

We have remain campaigners claiming that instant recession will happen.

Given that all the people promoting both campaigns lied their arses off, and we the voters don't have access to honest accounting of actual facts - why the HELL were we given the power to make this choice?

Instead the "facts" were given to us by people with agendas - news papers who have been anti EU at all times.

We claim a victory against the political elite - because Boris Johnson was a tramp from hobo-land rather than a rich fatcat who was in the f***ing Bullingdon club!

We the public have no f***ing clue what we're talking about, but we were giving the choice. 

Drew_TNBD

Fretwired said:

Listened to R4 this morning - an EU Commissioner was speaking. There's a growing realisation that the UK won't be leaving. Cameron has resigned deliberately to create a vacuum - come October he hopes May is PM. By then the rumbling about the result will have reached Westminster and May could call a GE next Spring on the Referendum result on a mandate to stay in  - the Tories could win a landslide victory and ignore the referendum. I get a sense we're not going anywhere.

What will be hilarious about that is watching all of the SJW eco-warriors who wanted to remain, tying themselves in knots because they'll end up having to vote for the Tories in order to secure remaining in the EU!

Myranda

Drew_fx said:

Fretwired said:

Listened to R4 this morning - an EU Commissioner was speaking. There's a growing realisation that the UK won't be leaving. Cameron has resigned deliberately to create a vacuum - come October he hopes May is PM. By then the rumbling about the result will have reached Westminster and May could call a GE next Spring on the Referendum result on a mandate to stay in  - the Tories could win a landslide victory and ignore the referendum. I get a sense we're not going anywhere.

What will be hilarious about that is watching all of the SJW eco-warriors who wanted to remain, tying themselves in knots because they'll end up having to vote for the Tories in order to secure remaining in the EU!

Thing is 16 million people voted out... if those same 16 million voted for the one party that would guarantee an OUT result, (UKIP) then we're have a Farage primistership... 

Much as I detest the result of the referendum and the fact that people without facts were given the option to make such an important decision I think that trying to dodge the result would be terrible. It would create a political uncertainty that would rock the financial markets for months - and lest fact it the earlist we'd likely see a general election would be december-ish ... six months of political/economic wobbling could easily bring about a new recession and is not worth it. And think about the three million poor f***ers who still haven't been officially told they wont be evicted from the UK because they're here on a EU passport having to spend another 6 months watching the TV every day trying to guage if they will have a job and a roof, or will have to move to the continent.

What needs to happen is someone has to say what will happen to the people who are here already - and make it law, so that they're either safe, or know they have to leave and have a time-line for doing so. There has to be an official "we will, or we wont honour the referendum" and it needs to happen soon. The longer politicians piss about doesn't strengthen our position in negotiating, it weakens our economy and the economy of our neighbours. I don't like it, but if we're leaving we should embrace it, and do it. Like ripping off a sticky plaster... short sharp ripping will hurt less in the long term.

Fretwired

Myranda said:

Drew_fx said:

Fretwired said:

Listened to R4 this morning - an EU Commissioner was speaking. There's a growing realisation that the UK won't be leaving. Cameron has resigned deliberately to create a vacuum - come October he hopes May is PM. By then the rumbling about the result will have reached Westminster and May could call a GE next Spring on the Referendum result on a mandate to stay in  - the Tories could win a landslide victory and ignore the referendum. I get a sense we're not going anywhere.

What will be hilarious about that is watching all of the SJW eco-warriors who wanted to remain, tying themselves in knots because they'll end up having to vote for the Tories in order to secure remaining in the EU!

Thing is 16 million people voted out... if those same 16 million voted for the one party that would guarantee an OUT result, (UKIP) then we're have a Farage primistership... 

No we wouldn't. To start with UKIP doesn't have the resources to put a candidate in every constituency - the FPTP system would also be against them. And as Drew_fx points out there will be millions of people (especially young people) forced to vote Tory. It could wipe out Labour in London. If you look at the voting many of the areas with a large turnout for leave are in the Labour heartlands which will give Labour a big problem - in or out. The Tories would lose some older voters but many will still vote Tory as they are well off home owners who wouldn't trust Labour.

Now I wonder if BoJo will have a Damascene moment and convert to pro EU.

Chalky

Oh dear, I think this thread has left reality...