Brexit - what do the experts say now?

holnrew

Jungle camp? I hope that doesn't have racist connotations. 

capo4th

I thought that was its official name ? Jungle camp ? 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calais_Jungle

Why do some people always play the racist card ? 

Mkjackary

I have to say I like theresa's idea of the UK becoming the 'global leaders' in free trade, and trying to set an example to the rest of the world on how free trade deals should work.

Having voted out, so far I am quite happy with the result, was expecting a much more shit to come from it, and much sooner too, it could still happen, but I am quite optimistic.

RobDavies

capo4th said:

What will happen with the jungle camp at Calais and its 10000 current inhabitants growing daily...

It's moving to Dover.  

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

digitalscream said:

johnnyurq said:

Today's thoughts on it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269916

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

Not really much different to the thoughts on it yesterday, the day before or even a few months ago. We're too small to get priority, and once we leave we're not as good an investment as we once were (given that a lot of foreign companies used UK investment as a gateway into the EU).

Why? Even if we don't have a trade deal the WTO tariffs aren't too bad once you factor in EU red tape, labour laws and the EUs economic and tax policies.

The UK should have low corporation tax, cut red tape and free the City of London to compete for business. The EU is in decline. Boing is moving it's European HQ to the UK and over the coming months there will be £30 billion worth of floatation's on the London Stock Exchange.

Because - as the Chinese and Japanese quotes show - they were using us as a gateway to a much bigger market (the EU). When we don't have that as a selling point any more, the value of investing here drops.

It's not just the red tape and corporation tax - it's the free movement of labour (ie direct access to a much bigger pool of skilled workers), it's the EU's laws (particularly the human rights laws, which companies from more lax countries can point to and say, "Look! We're human-friendly!") and the like.

It's far more complex than just "hey, we'll be cheap too!" and now that the dust is settling, it seems that more foreign companies are looking at the bigger picture; one of the main reasons for Leave winning - immigration and free movement - is precisely what a lot of companies saw as a big draw.

Yes, it's possible to point to a few companies bucking the trend and moving more into the UK, but the list of companies looking to leave the UK as soon as it leaves the EU is much, much bigger. Off the top of my head from stories in the last month...Vodafone, Visa, Ryanair, EasyJet, Siemens and a whole raft of tech startups who'll lose out on the ability to easily use EU resources.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

We haven't left the EU yet ....

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Dire threats versus fudging of truth and the odd flounce later... 

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

We haven't left the EU yet ....

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Dire threats versus fudging of truth and the odd flounce later... 

Osborne claimed the day after a Brexit vote he would need an emergency budget, the pound would crash, unemployment rise and the economy tank .. all lies.

I agree the leave mob were no better but since the vote the world hasn't crashed in .. my bet is we'll agree to free movement with a migrant cap and get free trade (that's the German position). In the long run it will be better for everyone. If I were German I'd want the Brits out - they don't get the EU and block and moan. We'll have a better relationship at arms length.

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

We haven't left the EU yet ....

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Dire threats versus fudging of truth and the odd flounce later... 

Osborne claimed the day after a Brexit vote he would need an emergency budget, the pound would crash, unemployment rise and the economy tank .. all lies.

The pound did crash, to a certain extent, and I think you're confusing "inaccurate predictions" with "lies".

Rocker

This is beginning to sound like BA (Brexit Anonymous - a support group for EU leavers)

Fretwired

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

We haven't left the EU yet ....

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Dire threats versus fudging of truth and the odd flounce later... 

Osborne claimed the day after a Brexit vote he would need an emergency budget, the pound would crash, unemployment rise and the economy tank .. all lies.

The pound did crash, to a certain extent, and I think you're confusing "inaccurate predictions" with "lies".

Lies .. he knew he was spouting lies the same way Boris knew. The campaign was a disgrace.

The pound was over valued .. it fell and as a result manufacturing orders are up ..

Still waiting for the shitstorm ....

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

Osborne claimed the day after a Brexit vote he would need an emergency budget, the pound would crash, unemployment rise and the economy tank .. all lies.

The pound did crash, to a certain extent, and I think you're confusing "inaccurate predictions" with "lies".

Lies .. he knew he was spouting lies the same way Boris knew. The campaign was a disgrace.

The pound was over valued .. it fell and as a result manufacturing orders are up ..

Still waiting for the shitstorm ....

OK, here's the thing - there's a vast difference between lies (which are demonstrably false according to evidence which already exists - eg "We'll have an extra £350m") and being wrong in a prediction, given that nobody actually knows the future.

I know you reallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreally want it to be a lie, but unless you honestly believe he's got a crystal ball hidden somewhere in his jacket, it ain't. Osborne's knowingly screwed the pooch on many occasions, but in this case he was going with prevailing wisdom on his side of the fence.

The shitstorm isn't happening because right now, nobody knows if we're going to even try to leave the EU yet. As soon as Article 50's invoked, then you'll likely get to see it. Patience.

ToneControl

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

Osborne claimed the day after a Brexit vote he would need an emergency budget, the pound would crash, unemployment rise and the economy tank .. all lies.

The pound did crash, to a certain extent, and I think you're confusing "inaccurate predictions" with "lies".

Lies .. he knew he was spouting lies the same way Boris knew. The campaign was a disgrace.

The pound was over valued .. it fell and as a result manufacturing orders are up ..

Still waiting for the shitstorm ....

OK, here's the thing - there's a vast difference between lies (which are demonstrably false according to evidence which already exists - eg "We'll have an extra £350m") and being wrong in a prediction, given that nobody actually knows the future.

I know you reallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreally want it to be a lie, but unless you honestly believe he's got a crystal ball hidden somewhere in his jacket, it ain't. Osborne's knowingly screwed the pooch on many occasions, but in this case he was going with prevailing wisdom on his side of the fence.

The shitstorm isn't happening because right now, nobody knows if we're going to even try to leave the EU yet. As soon as Article 50's invoked, then you'll likely get to see it. Patience.

the leavers mentioned £350m, even though it was really £250m unless the rebate got cut. Typical politician exaggeration, but not even 50% more than the real figure. Big deal, the  £3500 figures from the remainers was probably a worse  exaggeration .
But as well as Osborne  endorsing very gloomy long-term forecasts, he then said it was essential to recover 10-20 years of possible  losses as taxes immediately - clearly damaging as well as ludicrous. These threatened immediate cuts were orders of magnitude out of proportion in the timescale proposed, even if you accepted the forecasts. In addiiton, it was known that the cuts proposed would not be a rational and remedial response to the forecasted "shock" - they would make it worse, and would not ever be voted through as policy. Therefore the emergency budget was a much bigger lie - it was an entirely bogus threat.

AFAIK the pound was already overvalued, so in that case a correction is no big deal

scrumhalf

Here's the thing.

Nobody know's what's going to happen.

And do you know why?

Because things are going to happen in the next 3-24 months that none of us can really foresee. Civil wars, terrorism, exposure of fraud, horribly shitty weather. The sorts of things that can shake markets to the core.

We like to think we might have an idea, but if ISIS or Iran get fidgety, we're in totally unknown territory.

Fretwired

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

Osborne claimed the day after a Brexit vote he would need an emergency budget, the pound would crash, unemployment rise and the economy tank .. all lies.

The pound did crash, to a certain extent, and I think you're confusing "inaccurate predictions" with "lies".

Lies .. he knew he was spouting lies the same way Boris knew. The campaign was a disgrace.

The pound was over valued .. it fell and as a result manufacturing orders are up ..

Still waiting for the shitstorm ....

OK, here's the thing - there's a vast difference between lies (which are demonstrably false according to evidence which already exists - eg "We'll have an extra £350m") and being wrong in a prediction, given that nobody actually knows the future.

I know you reallyreallyreallyreallyreallyreally want it to be a lie, but unless you honestly believe he's got a crystal ball hidden somewhere in his jacket, it ain't. Osborne's knowingly screwed the pooch on many occasions, but in this case he was going with prevailing wisdom on his side of the fence.

The shitstorm isn't happening because right now, nobody knows if we're going to even try to leave the EU yet. As soon as Article 50's invoked, then you'll likely get to see it. Patience.

Ha ha .. Osborne was a liar .. prevailing wisdom my arse. The campaign wasn't going his way so more FUD was needed. Talk to any senior Tory and they'll tell you Osborne lied ... where was the emergency budget? He never had any intention of having one. Cameron said he'd see Brexit through and then quit .. another liar. 

mellowsun

If article 50 is invoked and we don't remain in the single market with free movement of workers, Japanese companies will be pulling out of the UK, which is basically what Abe told May at the G20.

Whatever you think of the rest of the EU and it's bureaucracy, free movement is something we really need to keep, for economic and cultural reasons, and we need to ignore the parochial, backward looking Leavers on this.

crunchman

Things may well change in Europe before we get too deep into Brexit negotiations.  There is a Dutch election due in march where an anti-EU party that wants a referendum is leading in the polls.

In Germany, Merkel's party has just lost to a far right party in local elections.  There is a federal election due there this time next year.

Meanwhile Greece will have another crisis soon.

We are much better off making like rats and deserting the sinking ship.  Whether the Brexit life raft will float is yet to be determined but the EU is doomed in it's current form.  The irony is that Brexit might force the EU to face some facts and lead to change that might have kept us in if they had agreed to it 6 months ago.

domforr

I think some caution would be wise from those looking at current economic forecasts, particularly from papers like the Daily Telegraph where the obvious bias is unrestrained. It's a bit like throwing a rock into a pond. There's the initial splash and then the ripples take longer to become apparent, but also last longer. 

The Iraq war is a very good example. The initial shock, followed by some good news headlines, followed by the ripples that we're still dealing with today. 

Bucket

Fretwired said:

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Because the Leave campaign was a paragon of honesty and virtue, wasn't it.

crunchman

Bucket said:

Fretwired said:

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Because the Leave campaign was a paragon of honesty and virtue, wasn't it.

Both campaigns were dreadful.

Osborne's whopper about every household being £4000 a year worse off by 2030 was the worst though.  There is no way anyone can make an accurate prediction about what would happen 14 years down the line.

crunchman

mellowsun said:

If article 50 is invoked and we don't remain in the single market with free movement of workers, Japanese companies will be pulling out of the UK, which is basically what Abe told May at the G20.

Whatever you think of the rest of the EU and it's bureaucracy, free movement is something we really need to keep, for economic and cultural reasons, and we need to ignore the parochial, backward looking Leavers on this.

Just seen the scaremongering headline on the Independent website:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-japan-companies-could-withdraw-uk-investment-eu-deal-requests-a7225996.html

If you actually read it:
It was “very difficult to imagine” that Japanese companies would pull out “in totality” from the UK, he [the Japanese ambassador] said.

He also said all options are open.

The remoaners can't stop scaremongering even after the vote.