Brexit - what do the experts say now?

domforr

A little premature for gloating I would say, as we're still in the midst of a phoney war. Let's see where we are next year when Article 50 has actually been invoked and when we are actually in the process of disentangling 40 years worth of legislative and economic ties with our neighbours. The complexity of the task is likely to involve huge amounts of government resources and will in all probablity take many years, with consequences unknown.

TheBigDipper

We haven't left yet, and we don't know the terms of our leaving, so anything we might say is just educated and/or uneducated predictions. 

Jalapeno

johnnyurq said:

Drew_TNBD said:

I'm sure all of the self appointed experts on this forum will be ready to chip in.

Fixed that for you.

Fixed that for you

Jalapeno

IMHO it's waaaay to early to say. Long way to go yet, ongoing refugee crisis, ISIS terror actions, another round of Grexit can't be far off, elections in France & Germany to be gone through - who the frack knows .....

capo4th

Does anyone know when the jungle camp is moving to Dover?

Lots of leave voters there will be looking forward to its arrival.

impmann

I heard this morning that May had been in talks with Australia over possible trade deals and that the Aussies will be one of our first choices to trade with post Brexit.

Did anyone else hear that and think WTAF?

So we're going to get cheap lager (great, but you can get it even cheaper if you cut out the middle man and drink your own urine) and.... er....

Or we could make trade deals with regions that actually make things we want... like China, Korea, Japan, India... or even start talks with the Scandawegians about their Gas and oil.

I'm sure there's more to it than that - but to the uneducated, or those that really don't give a flying fuck any more (like me) it sounded more than a bit odd.

impmann

capo4th said:

Does anyone know when the jungle camp is moving to Dover?

Lots of leave voters there will be looking forward to its arrival.

Can you imagine the NIMBYs... they didn't want wind farms, imagine what'll happen with this. They'll spontaneously combust!

ToneControl

capo4th said:

Does anyone know when the jungle camp is moving to Dover?

Lots of leave voters there will be looking forward to its arrival.

I thought that story had already been dismissed
why would  migrants leaving France for the UK congregate  after they crossed the channel?

Fretwired

crunchman said:

Bucket said:

Fretwired said:

All the dire threats from the Remoaners were just lies.

Because the Leave campaign was a paragon of honesty and virtue, wasn't it.

Both campaigns were dreadful.

Osborne's whopper about every household being £4000 a year worse off by 2030 was the worst though.  There is no way anyone can make an accurate prediction about what would happen 14 years down the line.

Both campaigns were shocking but Cameron was the one who decided to hold the referendum and the launched project fear - if the EU was so wonderful he'd have been able to sell it to us. He couldn't so it was doom, gloom, FUD and lies all the way. He rolled out a long line of experts and fellow leaders from around the world. History will not be kind to Cameron - it was shocking. The worst political campaign in memory.

exocet

impmann said:

I heard this morning that May had been in talks with Australia over possible trade deals and that the Aussies will be one of our first choices to trade with post Brexit.

Did anyone else hear that and think WTAF?

So we're going to get cheap lager (great, but you can get it even cheaper if you cut out the middle man and drink your own urine) and.... er....

Or we could make trade deals with regions that actually make things we want... like China, Korea, Japan, India... or even start talks with the Scandawegians about their Gas and oil.

I'm sure there's more to it than that - but to the uneducated, or those that really don't give a flying fuck any more (like me) it sounded more than a bit odd.

The Ozzies have Uranium,,,,,,I can't work out whether we want that or not

Cirrus

ToneControl said:

capo4th said:

Does anyone know when the jungle camp is moving to Dover?

Lots of leave voters there will be looking forward to its arrival.

I thought that story had already been dismissed
why would  migrants leaving France for the UK congregate  after they crossed the channel?

Because if the border checks were on this side of the channel, they wouldn't be able to get past them here instead of at Calais. I'd wager that should the mutual agreement with France end re; border checks, we'd end up with much more security around the port/ tunnel area with an official interment camp for processing asylum claimants as opposed to the unofficial slum that both France and the UK have been happy to let happen due to a desire not to engage with the problem. Sure, people would break through the fences etc. The question would be whether they do that faster than new arrivals or not.

Chalky

Merkel's departure is getting closer.

Berlin state poll: Losses for Merkel's CDU, gains for AfD - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37403542

ToneControl

Cirrus said:

ToneControl said:

capo4th said:

Does anyone know when the jungle camp is moving to Dover?

Lots of leave voters there will be looking forward to its arrival.

I thought that story had already been dismissed
why would  migrants leaving France for the UK congregate  after they crossed the channel?

Because if the border checks were on this side of the channel, they wouldn't be able to get past them here instead of at Calais. I'd wager that should the mutual agreement with France end re; border checks, we'd end up with much more security around the port/ tunnel area with an official interment camp for processing asylum claimants as opposed to the unofficial slum that both France and the UK have been happy to let happen due to a desire not to engage with the problem. Sure, people would break through the fences etc. The question would be whether they do that faster than new arrivals or not.

If all government checks and constraints were removed in Calais,
i  can envisage these scenarios:

1. A person wanting to enter the UK  without a visa  succeeds , and  continues travelling to some part of the UK. After that they might  apply for asylum or continue to live as an illegal immigrant
2. A person wanting to enter the UK  without a visa  succeeds , and immediately applies for asylum at the point of entry
   
3. A person wanting to enter the UK  without a visa  is detained at the point of entry
   

in #1, there will be no camp at Dover, for the same reason there is not one now - anyone  getting across  would disperse
In #2 and #3, there need be no camp at Dover, since the UK would have the right to return all those who apply to France, based on the  Laws and principles described here:  
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/sep/21/claim-asylum-uk-legal-position
There is already a "removal centre" at Dover for failed applicants: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33849593
http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/14FEF/production/_84799958_dover_cut.jpg  

So, I'd say that 

1. It's not actually in French interests to stop  doing checks in Calais, since  they don't want to encourage more  migrants to turn up in France 
2. Any one detected entering  the UK could be  detained in  a managed environment,  I cannot believe they would want an ad-hoc slum with no security
3. the UK could step up forced repatriations to France and  to the original home countries for the bogus applicants

Fretwired

Interestingly, over half the migrants in Calais now say they want to remain in France. Brexit per chance?

ToneControl

Fretwired said:

Interestingly, over half the migrants in Calais now say they want to remain in France. Brexit per chance?

where's that reported?

Fretwired

ToneControl said:

Fretwired said:

Interestingly, over half the migrants in Calais now say they want to remain in France. Brexit per chance?

where's that reported?

Google is your friend ...

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/13/half-calais-migrants-want-stay-france/

From the Times (behind a paywall)

Half Jungle migrants ‘want to stay in Calais’

French attempts to make Britain responsible for the Calais migration crisis have been undermined by the mass arrival in the town of migrants who want to stay in France.

Charities argue that half of those in makeshift migrant camp known as the Jungle have no intention of crossing the Channel to reach the UK.

The new trend undermines claims by those such as Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president hoping to return to the Elysée Palace next year, that Britain has a moral duty to solve the migration crisis in northern France.

Mr Sarkozy is among several high profile public figures who want to renegotiate the Le Touquet treaty which allows Britain to keep border guards in Calais to stop migrants crossing the Channel.

He has said that Britain must set up its own detention camp for Calais migrants if he is elected next year. Such demands, however, are based on the premise that the Jungle is a stopover on the road to Britain.

French migrant charities are now suggesting that Mr Sarkozy’s premise is no longer true. The camp is changing, they say, into a slum for migrants from the Horn of Africa who aim to make France their home.

“I left my country because it is dangerous,” said Yagoub El Zaky, 30, from the war-torn Darfur province of Sudan, who has spent two months in the Jungle.

“I am a refugee and I want security. Italy is no good. In Italy, the police beat us with sticks. But in France I feel protected. When I reached France, I wanted to stay. Life is difficult here but in Sudan there are many more problems.

“We get food (in the Jungle) and if you want education, you can study different languages, like French, English or Italian. Here they welcome us.”

Mr El Zaky said he was making a claim for asylum in France and expected to go to a migrant centre in another French town or city within a couple of months. He has no intention of crossing the Channel.

Of the 20 or so Sudanese migrants interviewed by The Times, only two said they wanted to go to the UK.

Le Monde, the French daily, also reported that there had been a “change in the function of the camp which is no longer the antechamber for Great Britain but a waiting place for migrants, the majority of whom want to stay in France”.

François Guennoc, deputy chairman of the Auberge des Migrants, a Calais charity, said three factors lay behind the change. First, fewer migrants from countries such as Afghanistan with historical ties to the UK were reaching France. Second, tighter security had made crossing the Channel too complicated for migrants without the cash to pay traffickers.

Finally, a crackdown on migrants sleeping rough in other French cities meant that the Jungle, however squalid, was the best place for many. “They get a tent, clothes and one meal a day,” he said.

His charity was undertaking a census to find out how many of the camp’s migrants want to go to the UK and how many want to stay. “My guess is that the results will show that it’s about 50-50.”

The interior ministry office in the Pas-de-Calais, which includes Calais, said there had been a marked increase in the number of migrants wanting to claim asylum in France over the summer.

The ministry provides coaches three days a week to take migrants to centres elsewhere in France to claim refugee status. Until two months ago, they were leaving half empty; now they cannot contain all those who want to leave Calais.

Last week, for instance, 200 migrants jostled for the 52 available seats in one coach.

Bernard Cazeneuve, the interior minister, has pledged to destroy the Jungle, which is home to 6,900 people, according to officials, and 9,000 according to charities, after opening more beds in migrant centres elsewhere.

Mkjackary

I have been fairly confident as a leaver with everything so far. The only thing that has me a bit worried is the Visegrad 4 saying they will veto any eu-uk trade deal that doesn't include the free movement of people.

ToneControl

Mkjackary said:

I have been fairly confident as a leaver with everything so far. The only thing that has me a bit worried is the Visegrad 4 saying they will veto any eu-uk trade deal that doesn't include the free movement of people.

the UK Gov should stop messing about:
there won't be any special deal, we'll just trade with the EU under WTO tariffs, and  there will not be free movement, so they should just get on with it

Fretwired

ToneControl said:

Mkjackary said:

I have been fairly confident as a leaver with everything so far. The only thing that has me a bit worried is the Visegrad 4 saying they will veto any eu-uk trade deal that doesn't include the free movement of people.

the UK Gov should stop messing about:
there won't be any special deal, we'll just trade with the EU under WTO tariffs, and  there will not be free movement, so they should just get on with it

I think we will end up with free movement linked to a job offer with a brake and cap on benefits and free trade. People who voted Brexit thinking immigration would be cut will be disappointed. The UK economy is growing and there are plans for some major infrastructure projects including some new towns. The UK will need immigrants and May knows this.

Since the EU sells more to us than we do to them I think they should pay for access to the UK market .. :-)

I wouldn't worry about the EU's hard line - its par for the course. Holland and Merkel could be gone next year. The Germans, French and Italians will want tariff free access to the UK. Lots of horse trading to go.

Chalky

Mkjackary said:

I have been fairly confident as a leaver with everything so far. The only thing that has me a bit worried is the Visegrad 4 saying they will veto any eu-uk trade deal that doesn't include the free movement of people.

That veto might happen but it won't last - the trouble with giving little groups a veto is that once they've used it on one topic (Brexit) they will feel entitled to use it elsewhere (non-Brexit topics). That will get the veto pruned very quickly.