Service sector economy has collapsed since Brexit

monquixote

TTony said:

monquixote said:

I guess we'll all find out one way or another in autumn when the financial figures come out. 

But we won't.  We never will.

If there economy has taken a dip, it'll be because of Brexit.  If GDP is up 2%, it'll "only" be 2% because of Brexit - it would have been up 5% if it wasn't for Brexit.  Etc.

On the day after, the papers were full of headlines about how many £bns had been wiped off the "value" of the UK and everyone's pensions because of the fall the FTSE-100 took.  Headlines.  Doom & gloom.  All due to Brexit.  All the fault of anyone who voted Leave.

Yup, the FTSE-100 fell 300 points.  It wasn't a good day.  Less than a month later, its 400 points higher.  So all those £bns that had been lost, have been put back, twice over.  Did anyone see the headlines?



Point1:  Well, things didn't turn out so badly then.
Point2:  There's no way of knowing whether things would have been better still - or worse - if the vote had gone the other way.

But unless someone has a foot in a parallel universe in which we voted Remain, we can never know what the true impact was.  It'll just be supposition and interpretation - and most interpretations will either be selectively chosen or deliberately misrepresented to fit with the commentator's pre-vote prejudice.

I meant we will find out if we are in a recession or not. (I know technically it's 2 quarters)

Though I get your point that you can't know what would have happened had the vote gone the other way if we go into a massive recession with a collapse in business and consumer confidence and foreign investment playing a significant part (and I don't think we will) it's not unreasonable to assume that would be brexit related.

Chuffola

Rocker said:

It looks bad when all the leavers camp have left.. Northern Ireland is in a spin too, economically they may have to leave the UK and join the Republic. If not, they will go down even quicker than any other part of the UK. Not a situation that brings any joy to us living south of the border.

Glad to see we'll get a warm welcome then... 

NI will survive just fine. We've got Game of Thrones tourism to keep us afloat for at least 2 more seasons.

rlw

My Thursday client is an atypical solicitors practice of two partners dealing mainly in commercial conveyancing and high end residential - all over northwest London and the home counties - turning over about 1.5 million quid annually..

Normally, they expect to open 3 to 5 new conveyancing files a week which they did until Brexit, since when, none.

Make of that what you will.

Sambostar

Yawn.

mellowsun

The FTSE is nominally higher because it is denominated in sterling, which has fallen dramatically against the major currencies.

if you're buying uk shares in dollars then the FTSE is looking pretty cheap

siremoon

rlw said:

My Thursday client is an atypical solicitors practice of two partners dealing mainly in commercial conveyancing and high end residential - all over northwest London and the home counties - turning over about 1.5 million quid annually..

Normally, they expect to open 3 to 5 new conveyancing files a week which they did until Brexit, since when, none.

Make of that what you will.

The Sunday Times have been reporting a slow down in high end London residential sales for a year now.  They had a big feature on the price crash and reduction in demand in Battersea/Nine Elms about 6 months ago.

Sambostar

I thought we were officially in recession before the referendum even took place.

siremoon

Sambostar said:

I thought we were officially in recession before the referendum even took place.

The last recession in the UK was in 2009. 

Rocker

Chuffola said:

Rocker said:

It looks bad when all the leavers camp have left.. Northern Ireland is in a spin too, economically they may have to leave the UK and join the Republic. If not, they will go down even quicker than any other part of the UK. Not a situation that brings any joy to us living south of the border.

Glad to see we'll get a warm welcome then... 

NI will survive just fine. We've got Game of Thrones tourism to keep us afloat for at least 2 more seasons.

The people of NI will be welcome as always.  The cost of unification of the country, nowhere like the cost of reunifying Germany, would be as high as rescuing the Banks.

NI will survive as it is if the UK Government pay the additional monies that the EU already pay.  As I understand it, NI already receives more per person from the UK Budget than the other regions like Wales and Scotland do.  For the sake of NI, I hope that happens.  In reality such things very seldom do.

Sambostar

siremoon said:

Sambostar said:

I thought we were officially in recession before the referendum even took place.

The last recession in the UK was in 2009. 

Oh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36266178

siremoon

Sambostar said:

siremoon said:

Sambostar said:

I thought we were officially in recession before the referendum even took place.

The last recession in the UK was in 2009. 

Oh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36266178

One sector shrinking does not constitute a recession.  GDP has to shrink for 2 consecutive quarters.

TTony

Sambostar said:

siremoon said:

Sambostar said:

I thought we were officially in recession before the referendum even took place.

The last recession in the UK was in 2009. 

Oh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36266178

That's "manufacturing" industry.

it ignores the service sector, agriculture, etc.

Manufacturing has been in decline for decades, at least as a % of the total economy.

marantz1300

Clarky said:

if I recall correctly, a great many that voted to leave were at the lower end of the pay scale and long term unemployed..
I'd have thought that these would be the people hit the hardest by Brexit and a subsequent economic downturn

Hooray!

marantz1300

Bogwhoppit said:

The worlds going to explode, my teeth are going to fall out and the moon is going to hit the earth - all because of Brexit.

My nan stopped pissing herself, the only gay in the village is now straight, the local Police let me off murder - all because of Brexit.

The Queen has taken up Morris dancing, Prince William has announced a fee sex-night with his wife over a pint of old wallop and Jeremy Vine is voting Labour - all because of Brexit.

My piles have healed, I found a spare Ferrari under the carpet, the dog now talks in his sleep - all because of Brexit.

What did Brexit do for you today ?

Made me shit myself, but I found a lost wedding ring in the turd.

exocet

TTony said:

monquixote said:

I guess we'll all find out one way or another in autumn when the financial figures come out. 

But we won't.  We never will.

If there economy has taken a dip, it'll be because of Brexit.  If GDP is up 2%, it'll "only" be 2% because of Brexit - it would have been up 5% if it wasn't for Brexit.  Etc.

On the day after, the papers were full of headlines about how many £bns had been wiped off the "value" of the UK and everyone's pensions because of the fall the FTSE-100 took.  Headlines.  Doom & gloom.  All due to Brexit.  All the fault of anyone who voted Leave.

Yup, the FTSE-100 fell 300 points.  It wasn't a good day.  Less than a month later, its 400 points higher.  So all those £bns that had been lost, have been put back, twice over.  Did anyone see the headlines?



Point1:  Well, things didn't turn out so badly then.
Point2:  There's no way of knowing whether things would have been better still - or worse - if the vote had gone the other way.

But unless someone has a foot in a parallel universe in which we voted Remain, we can never know what the true impact was.  It'll just be supposition and interpretation - and most interpretations will either be selectively chosen or deliberately misrepresented to fit with the commentator's pre-vote prejudice.

I'd argue on the "never will" statement.

If in 10 years time our GDP is less than that of France, I'm declaring Brexit a complete and utter failure. 

koneguitarist

To be honest, I think the whingers do more harm for UK than Brexit. If you all keep sprouting doom and gloom, there will be no confidence in anything, so get on with it and work for a better Britain, not crying over a shit system that was getting worse. 

marantz1300

koneguitarist said:

To be honest, I think the whingers do more harm for UK than Brexit. If you all keep sprouting doom and gloom, there will be no confidence in anything, so get on with it and work for a better Britain, not crying over a shit system that was getting worse. 

No.

The leavers have just bolloxed the economy and won't admit it.

exocet

koneguitarist said:

To be honest, I think the whingers do more harm for UK than Brexit. If you all keep sprouting doom and gloom, there will be no confidence in anything, so get on with it and work for a better Britain, not crying over a shit system that was getting worse. 

I'd disagree with that statement. The global finance system is not going to take any notice of the 17 million odd Britain's of which a percentage are being very vocal about the grim outlook. Like wise the vacuous "suck it up" or "crack on" phrases that I hear a lot, will not have a positive impact on proceedings. 

marantz1300

It's like someone saying after they have  punched you in the face or raped your wife.

It will be better if you stop whinging and pull together to make things better.

Better for them to not face up to what they have done .

Sambostar

marantz1300 said:

No.

The leavers have just bolloxed the economy and won't admit it.

Well to be fair, if you want to act like children, for me personally, a lot of the remainers completely bolloxed my life and prospects in the UK and many of them are a PITA to boot.