Service sector economy has collapsed since Brexit

JezWynd

marantz1300 said:

It's like someone saying after they have  punched you in the face or raped your wife.

It will be better if you stop whinging and pull together to make things better.

Better for them to not face up to what they have done .

That's a big assumption.

JezWynd

UnclePsychosis said:

koneguitarist said:
To be honest, I think the whingers do more harm for UK than Brexit. If you all keep sprouting doom and gloom, there will be no confidence in anything, so get on with it and work for a better Britain, not crying over a shit system that was getting worse. 

Blaming Remainers for the consequences of Brexit would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic. It's a completely ludicrous notion.

As Ian Hislop rightly pointed out - the opposition don't shut up for five years between elections.

That's a very depressing statement. Does this mean they'll be complaining permanently from now on? Born to it I guess.

Iamnobody

marantz1300 said:

We were told what woud happen
It is happening.
Some voted for It. 
Now they refuse to own It and are blaming everyone but themselfs.

We were also told a lot of things would happen that haven't happened (yet).

It's far too early in the process to know what the outcomes will be.

I'm sick of hearing about it. The decision has been made and life goes on.

I don't share any of the strong views from either side...

monquixote

JezWynd said:

UnclePsychosis said:

koneguitarist said:
To be honest, I think the whingers do more harm for UK than Brexit. If you all keep sprouting doom and gloom, there will be no confidence in anything, so get on with it and work for a better Britain, not crying over a shit system that was getting worse. 

Blaming Remainers for the consequences of Brexit would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic. It's a completely ludicrous notion.

As Ian Hislop rightly pointed out - the opposition don't shut up for five years between elections.

That's a very depressing statement. Does this mean they'll be complaining permanently from now on? Born to it I guess.

In what sense are they "born to it"?

Myranda

JezWynd said:

UnclePsychosis said:


koneguitarist said:

To be honest, I think the whingers do more harm for UK than Brexit. If you all keep sprouting doom and gloom, there will be no confidence in anything, so get on with it and work for a better Britain, not crying over a shit system that was getting worse. 

Blaming Remainers for the consequences of Brexit would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic. It's a completely ludicrous notion.

As Ian Hislop rightly pointed out - the opposition don't shut up for five years between elections.

That's a very depressing statement. Does this mean they'll be complaining permanently from now on? Born to it I guess.

Unlike the people moaning about Europe for immigration even though we let in more migrants from outside the EU than from within? 

Unlike the people complaining about dole spongers and somehow blaming the EU (but not blaming the elderly even though the pensions part of the welfare budget is the biggest chunk and old people) 

Unlike the people complaining about red tape and saying it's all down to the EU even though the UK has done pointless bureaucracy perfectly well for hundreds of years 

We've had to listen to you fuckers since we joined the EU... You've had to listen to us for a couple of months so get used to it we've got 30 odd years of catching up with all your bullshit 

TTony

marantz1300 said:

We were told what woud happen
It is happening.

No.

No.

No.

There was a huge amount of hyperbole - make believe - on both sides.  No one *knew* what was going to happen.  Because no-one could *know*.  What we were told was a load of BS on both sides, whether that's the £350m/wk for the NHS or the £30bn punishment budget.  Both were pure BS.

Whats happenning now is life.  It would have happened whichever way we voted.  Ultimately - and this is just my view - is that business interests will prevail over politics.  Because business is more important and more influential.  Business pays for politicians.  Business will ensure that we don't lose out, even if a few political careers are sacrificed.  No big loss there.

And if business protects itself, the macro-economy is protected, and our micro-lives are largely unaffected.  Despite what hysterical media might want us to think.

monquixote

I agree that business interests protect themselves, but what they don't do is protect our country.

I'm sure in the long run this decision will not hurt the likes of HSBC, but they might well be enjoying those profits in another country with a much reduced UK headcount.

There is nothing to say that the continued wealth of Britain is inevitable. History is littered with rich countries that became poor countries.

Again I'm not claiming to know what will happen just making the point that while capitalism does tend to move towards optimal market efficiency it doesn't care who the money flows to as long as it keeps flowing.

Cabicular

TTony said:

marantz1300 said:

We were told what woud happen
It is happening.

No.

No.

No.

There was a huge amount of hyperbole - make believe - on both sides.  No one *knew* what was going to happen.  Because no-one could *know*.  What we were told was a load of BS on both sides, whether that's the £350m/wk for the NHS or the £30bn punishment budget.  Both were pure BS.

Whats happenning now is life.  It would have happened whichever way we voted.  Ultimately - and this is just my view - is that business interests will prevail over politics.  Because business is more important and more influential.  Business pays for politicians.  Business will ensure that we don't lose out, even if a few political careers are sacrificed.  No big loss there.

And if business protects itself, the macro-economy is protected, and our micro-lives are largely unaffected.  Despite what hysterical media might want us to think.

As someone who owns a few businesses I respectfully disagree. Whilst no one could have predicted what remain would mean, we had a pretty good idea of what would happen as a result of leave. And it is happening in a very real way. The idea that the country can vote us into economic stagnation and then expect business to magically pull us out is pretty systematic of the lack of care of consequence I seem to see from the leave side. so far it's ok but there are dark times ahead, call it fear mongering if you like, I have seen quite a few recessions start and finish and this is what they look like. It's like indyref all over again except with a different outcome.

Business needs stability and confidence.. We have just lost all of that
Things won't get better until it comes back but it'll take years to untangle and more years to sort out.
In the meantime big business will adopt a wait and see approach that will starve everyone underneath them
Regardlessof my own feelings on the EU from a purely business point of view ...it's a disaster.

Sambostar

marantz1300 said:

Sambostar said:

And a large majority of Remainers will never get it, thinking that people on low wages or who don't own a house shouldn't be entitled to vote.  They never look past the end of their own noses I reckon.

Where did you get that from?
Everyone's entitled to vote, even  the poor.
SOME just don't understand what they are voting for or the consequences.

This rhetoric is precisely why so many voted out.  And you do?  You liberal nazi eh?  I've heard it a million times, save it and shut it.  I don't even get mad any more, I'm just surprised that there are so many thick and intolerant people walking around with assets, cash and opinions.  Actually, no I'm not.  The literalists and I thought I was literal.

skankdelvar

Cabicular said:

As someone who owns a few businesses I respectfully disagree. Whilst no one could have predicted what remain would mean, we had a pretty good idea of what would happen as a result of leave. And it is happening in a very real way. The idea that the country can vote us into economic stagnation and then expect business to magically pull us out is pretty systematic of the lack of care of consequence I seem to see from the leave side. so far it's ok but there are dark times ahead, call it fear mongering if you like, I have seen quite a few recessions start and finish and this is what they look like. It's like indyref all over again except with a different outcome.

Business needs stability and confidence.. We have just lost all of that
Things won't get better until it comes back but it'll take years to untangle and more years to sort out.
In the meantime big business will adopt a wait and see approach that will starve everyone underneath them
Regardlessof my own feelings on the EU from a purely business point of view ...it's a disaster.

In turn, as someone who's run a few businesses I'd respectfully disagree with your respectful disagreement :-)

For one thing the economic downturn is at this point nowhere near as severe as previous full-blown recessions. Rather than a global structural issue as in 2008 we are experiencing a sudden and very localised lack of confidence born of an unexpected event and a temporary vacuum of governance.

Doubtless some companies may for good business reasons put their plans on hold. Some may simply grapple with indecision. Some may retrench in the face of genuinely worsening conditions. But others will take advantage by moving into spaces vacated by their competitors or by finding value in defensively-managed businesses. This is the nature of business - ups and downs, snakes and ladders

In the 1990's I helped to organise a symposium with the objective of helping SME's develop a coping strategy with the then prevailing recession. The keynote speaker was Martin Sorrell of WPP who suggested that recessions nearly always occur through lack of confidence and that it was the self-interested duty of business to offset that confidence gap by taking proactive steps to move forward and promote growth. 

Sorrell recognised that it was a given that certain businesses would pull in their horns. He regarded this as an opportunity for competitors to grow share even if the market itself was contracting. In conclusion he produced a statistic drawn from his group's research arm which revealed that companies which pursued aggressively expansionist policies during recessions not only survived but usually leapfrogged their way up their sector rankings.

The truth is that business confidence and stability are almost always balanced on a knife edge. As yet matters are much better than was previously suggested they might be. Circumstances are considerably better than they were in 2001 and 2008. We can either live in dread of events which may not come to pass or we can adapt, survive and look for opportunities.

I've been retired for a few years now but the availability of cheap loans and a possible glut of dispirited business owners tempts me to re-engage. Interesting times.



 

mike_l

Just to point out in the last two weeks, work has gone through the roof.
The first couple of weeks after the vote everything went quiet, as we expected. The last two weeks have been the busiest of the entire 10 months I've worked in my current job.
Which tells me that the trucks are moving. A lot. Which means they're shifting something. 

Some of our customers haul heavy plant, and they are flat out 7 days a week. Others have expanded their workshops to take in extra work, on top of their own fleets. 

So I'm not buying all the doom and gloom. It's all rhetoric and fear mongering bullshit.

p90fool

skankdelvar said:

The funny thing is that until a few months ago almost no one in the UK held the EU particularly close to their hearts.

A tiny minority of Remainers are now almost unhinged in their desire to 'punish' those with whom they violently disagree about something they probably never cared about in the first place. 

Of course we cared, we fought tooth and nail to stay European, because it was financially, socially and emotionally very important to us.

Don't project your parochialism onto those of us who have lived, worked and travelled in Europe for decades.

You are trying to destroy something because YOU are not interested in it and you wonder why people are furious?

ToneControl

"Service sector economy has collapsed since Brexit"

I thought project  fear would end with the vote

Now we're on to project  "shit your pants"?

Some businesses had a small drop in confidence in placing new orders over a few weeks - that's what the data says.  I'd say "collapsed" would be that 25%-50%  of businesses about to go bankrupt, so probably just a tiny bit overreacting there

in my sector, job ads dried up in the second week after the vote, and then restarted 7-10 days later. My hypothesis would be that companies  suspended recruitment,  had some meetings to set strategy, then started recruiting again.  Perhaps that's too obvious, and  instead it means  all those businesses are about to close? No - that would be ridiculous 

I also thought we'd now hear less from remainers who have not bother to (or are intellectually unable to) spend a significant amount of time learning about the implications of the remain/Brexit issues,  but who  want to insult those who voted leave as "idiots" (and some far more offensive names).

Anyway,   it seems a large minority of UK citizens are remain  voters who gleefully relish seeing any reports on the country doing badly and almost want the UK to fail economically  as we go through this to "prove they were right".

If these angry remainers continue to spend all their energy in  broadcasting  their opinions on how badly the UK is doing, and how guilty those idiot Brexit voters should feel, then - yes - I think it will have adverse effects on us. As mentioned, it's an opportunity for the braver business people, but also the unscrupulous - what it does is to give businesses a license for  long-planned headcount-reductions, wage drops or freezes,  reduced salaries for new jobs - if you can frighten the normal worker, you can treat him worse.

I've seen this before - I worked on a public sector project, and 3 weeks after signing the second contract, the agency phones me up - and says the firm are asking  everyone to take a 15% cut "because of the banking crisis", saying those who refused would be reconsidered. I knew it was a fixed-price project, so clearly  just trying their luck. Funny thing was, they got the junior girl to do the calls, so she was priceless: I say "no", and explain why, and without any prompting she says "yes most people said no too" - guess what happened? Nothing.  Also  firms will launch major redundancy programmes to strip out lower performing workers if they judge that workers are scared enough - scared enough that the ones not being fired  will  keep quiet.  After 9/11 I was at a  large firm that simple fired 10% of their permanent staff, because they could, and wanted to get the share price up

All this constant "I told you so" stuff is pointless and destructive. 
It'll be a very long time before we know what the effects are, and I think we'll be better off , and I think that because I've spent a huge amount of time learning about it, not just because I have daft woolly ideas about what the EU and UK are or aren't.

News that businesses are a bit jittery 2 weeks after a major referendum is hardly unexpected is it?

I think the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse don't need to saddle up just yet

ToneControl

p90fool said:

skankdelvar said:

The funny thing is that until a few months ago almost no one in the UK held the EU particularly close to their hearts.

A tiny minority of Remainers are now almost unhinged in their desire to 'punish' those with whom they violently disagree about something they probably never cared about in the first place. 

Of course we cared, we fought tooth and nail to stay European, because it was financially, socially and emotionally very important to us.

Don't project your parochialism onto those of us who have lived, worked and travelled in Europe for decades.

You are trying to destroy something because YOU are not interested in it and you wonder why people are furious?

the vast majority of Uk people working abroad are outside the EU
I think it's twice as many in the USA as in the whole EU
same again for Oz, NZ, etc. The EU is way down the list for UK people wanting to  work abroad

I think  about 300k UK citizens work in the EU
I would assume that didn't start in 1973, and won't end in 2019

However,  it's no reason to compel the other  99.5% of the UK population to stay in the EU just so those with wanderlust can leave the UK more easily 

p90fool

ToneControl said:

I think  about 300k UK citizens work in the EU
I would assume that didn't start in 1973, and won't end in 2019

However,  it's no reason to compel the other  99.5% of the UK population to stay in the EU just so those with wanderlust can leave the UK more easily 

That's a perfectly fair point, but I'm not just talking about practical reasons, it's also a state of mind.

I suspect that whatever the long term economic outcome, the two sides will never be reconciled, the gulf is just too large between those with a world view and those whose instincts were encapsulated in Trump's speech yesterday.

You don't HAVE to marry a Belgian and go and work in Provence, but you don't HAVE to stare into the damn gutter all the time either.

TTony

p90fool said:

the gulf is just too large between those with a world view and those whose instincts were encapsulated in Trump's speech yesterday.

Why does this debate always descend into personal insults?

koneguitarist

Because the facts often clash against beliefs on both sides and it's used as a get out clause

p90fool

TTony said:

p90fool said:

the gulf is just too large between those with a world view and those whose instincts were encapsulated in Trump's speech yesterday.

Why does this debate always descend into personal insults?

Who have I insulted? I hear that stuff every day in my work canteen, the two sides will never understand each other because they have wildly opposing aspirations.

I'm not insulting anyone on here, the likes of @ToneControl and a couple of others have, through well-informed rational argument made me question some of the dogma I've always taken for granted, no matter how strongly I may fundamentally disagree with them.

ToneControl

TTony said:

p90fool said:

the gulf is just too large between those with a world view and those whose instincts were encapsulated in Trump's speech yesterday.

Why does this debate always descend into personal insults?

I dunno. I'm particularly puzzled to learn that anyone views leave voters as a homogeneous  group with the same opinions as each other , never mind to imagine that might be similar to the opinions of Trump supporters

I don't think we had much Brexit-supporting sentiment on this forum that was  not backed  up with  serious thought.   But there have been quite a few insults towards Brexiteers  such as "c**t",  "idiot", "racist" though

I love travelling around Europe, I just doubt that I'd ever want to work in it, other than in Ireland
I'd like a retirement house in  a hot part of it
I don't think any of those require the UK being in the EU, judging by the number of Russians  in Cyprus and London

p90fool

ToneControl said:

TTony said:

p90fool said:

the gulf is just too large between those with a world view and those whose instincts were encapsulated in Trump's speech yesterday.

Why does this debate always descend into personal insults?

I don't think we had much Brexit-supporting sentiment on this forum that was  not backed  up with  serious thought.  

Er... that's what I said earlier?