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It's interesting to note that leavers still voted for labour locally, but we haven't seen that put to test for an MP's seat - which I think is a very different scenario, EU and immigration is not something local councillors can fix
Who were the extra voters in the referendum, what was their leave/stay ratio, any idea?
I've been very sceptical about Corbyn's appeal to young voters
The fact that he has many young campaigners around him does not prove anything of course
I can't see why people assume he naturally attracts younger voters
a lazy search just now turned this up:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/labour-members-exit-poll-corbyn-wins-all-except-yo/
which says that, in the labour party itself, 18-24 was the only group that voted against Corbyn in 2016
UKIP are of course, a rabble of oddballs and have no consistency, and few stars.
Your comments about them are nearly perfectly applicable to the Labour party too though
"a party who actually lost 50% of their MPs at the last election, whose leadership and general organisation since the election has been absolutely fucking pisspoor"
Going from 2 to 1 MP makes a comparison hard really, since those 2 were from defections
The question is about overall vote share - UKIP gained 9.5% of the vote in 2015, that is massive
Anyway, I've only seen Nuttall on TV 2-3 times. Frankly he seems brighter than Corbyn, I doubt if he's as clever as Farage though
He is one of the (presumably few) more competent UKIP politicians
Is there anything about him that would repel leave voters in Stoke?
You're correct though - it's complex, I just think that an upset is very possible, could be good for labour to get it now rather than in 2020
The one thing I have seen is a hardening views against immigration. I think post referendum people are feeling they can voice opinions on immigration that they couldn't do 18 months ago.
Labour is in a mess - one of the areas I cover is a Labour stronghold and when you get traditional Labour voters saying they won't vote for Corbyn then you know they're in trouble. I'll stick my neck out and say narrow UKIP win. Paul Nuttal is working class and not a slippery ex-Tory boy like Farage. I think he could win as the small Tory vote will switch to him plus some Labour supporters. I also predict a low turn out with many Labour voters staying away which is a good way to show disapproval of the leadership without voting for the opposition.
A UKIP win could spell the end of Corbyn which may also motivate some Labour voters to switch to UKIP for this unimportant by-election and so humiliate him.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
AFAIC, UKIP is another name for National Front.
*An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
Sorry, leopards and spots.
*An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.
Corbyn got up to some strange things with his anti Jewish stance in the 70s, Harman and PIE, the Bullingdon boys - we end up with a government made up of vicars and bishops.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
*An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.
If she had a blue one she'd have a snooker set.
*An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.
*An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.
Citation, as the kids say, needed.
If a fudge over that agreement is worked out, in which the agreement remains in place after the UK exit from the EU, another can of worms could be opened if Scotland felt that it is better off being a member of the EU and out of the UK. This is pure speculation by me but difficulties must be apparent to everyone if Scotland decides to go it alone.
But my main point is that the Good Friday Agreement is going to provide serious difficulties for the negotiating teams. The consequences of getting this wrong are too terrible to think about.
Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
I'm running a Brexit debate in June for 100+ businesses in Herts with some government ministers. If anyone wants to come let me know and I'll pay for your ticket ..
Here's one event I organised ...
http://www.biz4biz.org/blog/biz4biz-connexions-eu-debate-great-success/
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
Totally agree that we haven't seen it tested for an MP seat. EU and immigration aren't local domestic issues. What would be the litmus test for whether the EURef energised people and managed to sustain the interest will be the next round of MEP elections to my mind. Historically we haven't been interested...
http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm
If the electorate aren't arsed about Europe at MEP level, then I suspect Europe issues won't be at the forefront of their thinking when it comes to voting for domestic politicians.
The YouGov article you linked to is interesting but it should be pointed out that this was only surveying Labour members and not registered supporters. It is also pertinent to point this out from the same article:
"However, it should be noted that the samples for 18-24 year old members and Scots are actually two of the smallest sample sizes in the survey and should be treated with caution."
YouGov failed spectacularly in the General Election to get the right result and they didn't post out cautions on their polls then. That they do so on this one does mean that the figures should be treated with a decent modicum of caution.
I've seen Corbyn several times now at rallies and have attended events in my life both as a voter and in a working capacity with ministers, high up political bods, mayors on both sides of the Atlantic, and others. It is undeniable that Corbyn's supporters are a bloody curious mix. They are the flipside of the UKIP fruitcakes, far more quinoa involved. But it's also undeniable from simply looking at the people around me and comparing Labour meetings I attended purely as a spectator rather than supporter in Miliband's era to the Corbyn era that there are far more young people going now and getting involved at a grassroots level.
Nuttall is a decent speaker (that said, so was Diane James and she got absolutely shat on by certain party members). He's combative, that's for sure and he's generally well briefed on subjects. He seldom trips over his words. The areas he should worry about are the NHS as he's all for more privatisation and his views on abortion. He is openly Catholic, a belief system which leads to him calling for sex education to be scrapped for under 11s and his views on abortion.
Where Nuttall will face something new is that he will be under scrutiny for the first time. He will make gaffes, all politicians do, but the hallmark of Farage was how he handled them.
It'll be a damn interesting by-election, that's for sure.
I agree that there have been some freeing of voices since the election. Definitely a case in some people of being resigned to it so they are supporting it now because there's no other choice and I again agree on immigration. I've said several times before why I wasn't in favour of how immigration was now based on what I saw in Canada a decade earlier (large numbers of people mean you need infrastructure investment. Canada didn't do that, it brought people in and slashed services. A real mess in some parts of Toronto and some poverty I saw out there that beats anything I've seen in this country).
Labour's chances depend entirely on the candidate they choose. I hope they go with Dr Hitchin.
I don't think a UKIP win will signal the end of Corbyn. I believe he'd use a defeat as evidence that the party needs to solidify around him. If he were to go, another leadership election would only split the party further. Much like Brexit, it's time for the party to face up to the reality. He's been elected and so members have to go with it or fuck off. Simple as.
Posting opinions is absolutely fine, obviously. That's what forums are for. But if you're going to "back up" claims you need to do so with actual evidence. It's not that I think you make it up, it's what you present in support of your opinions is unverifiable - anyone could do it to support any position, so it doesn't add anything to the debate. It therefore comes across as a bit "Silence, children, you know nothing!".
I've not posted much here because I don't fancy myself an economist, political analyst and trade agreement specialist unlike most people here... but some of it makes for interesting reading.
I was surprised to see Nuttall bring catholicism into his "sales package" so much, 50% are catholic in Liverpool, but anywhere else it's 10% max. I thought he'd be sticking to the main UKIP themes, and also adding risk to start talking about the NHS
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/1834/0/ukip-deputy-leader-says-party-in-line-with-catholic-thought-
Earlier in the year, it was reported in an interview in the NS that he wasn't a churchgoer.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/paul-nuttall-could-i-lead-ukip-yeah-i-think-i-could