EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Sporky

Drew_fx said:

So what does this all mean for @Emp_Fab and his £800 of Euros ???

Good question.

Depends, I think, on how quickly the exchange agents track the money markets.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

They probably think the newspapers and TV will be chasing the Tories and Boris around so they can avoid a bad news day. They are lining up a new leader for 2020. I like the guy but he was hopeless in this camapaign.

Hopeless only in the sense that he didn't stick to what he had always believed in and went with Remain. It made him look weak. 

ICBM said:

I agree - and much as I agree with him on more issues than probably any other senior UK politician, and applaud his personal honesty over his position on the EU, I think he's at least partly to blame.

But I don't think some sore losers in the *parliamentary* Labour Party have any right to depose him when he was voted in by such a large proportion of the party membership.

Traditional Labour areas that stayed Labour in the 2015 GE blue tsunamis went Leave last night. Comparing thre 2015 consitutional map to the results map of last night, the changes were really apparent and obvious. No amount of Corbyn campaigning for Remain would have changed the minds of those voters. 

Chalky

hugbot;1123445" said:

You say that as if it changes your utterly moronic point:

Yes, leaving the EU will probably cause "significant" damage to the world economy. No thats not cause for some kind of "look whos insignificant now!?" rallying cry since that damage goes both ways.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/global-recession-risk-above-50-on-brexit-t-rowe-price-warns



I'm seeing a significant number of people this morning suddenly with immediate pressing concerns about their jobs, but hey, we sure showed the world economy what for huh?

Dear Sir

You are at it again. I didn't say it would cause "significant" damage. I simply contrasted the Remain claim of our insignificance with the significant impact of our internal democratic process.

Surely you agree that if this country was truly insignificant then whatever our democratic process delivered would thereby be viewed as insignificant by the rest of the world?

Yours Sincerely

Chalky

hugbot

Dear Mr Chalky.

I use the term "signifiant" herein as it is the logically inferred opposite of "insignificant". 

Secondarily I submit that:

Certainly we are a significant country, which has ("had", if the most dire forcasts are accurate) a coveted AAA credit rating. The fact that our economy has the power to cast painful ripples around the world demonstrates this.

HOWEVER that was not the point of the pro-remain argument. The point is that our economy is not so sturdy that it gives us license to do what we want without rebuke. Yesterday we were the worlds fifth largest economy, as of this afternoon we have dropped from that position. Warnings that this might happen ought to be taken as a purely economic argument, not an emotive "challenge"

Demonstrating that we are "significant" was not a point that needed to be made, cheering causing a 1 trillion loss as demonstrating our singificance to any observers is like cheering "winning" a game of chicken by successfully ploughing into the other car. It shows our ability to cause a big mess, but now we have a big mess, as predicted.

Regards

Hugbot.

strtdv

Rocker;1123892" said:

A lot I imagine. Northern Ireland voted to remain. Jeffrey Donaldson, whose party canvassed for an out vote, was interviewed on the radio this morning. He said that there were advantages for the UK voting out. When asked for one, he was totally flummoxed. Not one could he give. Seems he expected a remain result.

Yes, although in Northern Ireland the Leave/Remain was largely on party lines. Down, Antrim and the majority of Belfast voted leave. 

Also worth noting that the remain areas overall in NI had lower turnout (particularly Foyle), which implies that people who would have voted leave but lived in a safe "remain" area simply didn't bother voting.

Ro_S

No bitching please from Remainers about the turnout.  The turnout was, relatively, very high.  It was the highest since the 1992 general election.  Those who did not vote in the referendum, or who did not register to vote, all chose to do so.

Ro_S

When Scotland gets their next referendum to leave the UK and they vote to for independence, and we then negotiate how to split things up them, will Scotland get allocated their fair share of immigrants for a change?    If they won't take the redistribution of the immigrants, I say we repatriate all the Scots in England.

Fretwired

hugbot said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

Not the time or place. When Labour is sat here figuring out how it can get back in with the Northern Labour areas who voted Leave, having two old chick Remainers coming out with this is risible and demonstrating that Labour are still hopeless within themselves. 

Labour is in a fucked checkmate position regardless. On one hand you've got the "labour heartland", who are anti-immigration. On the other the labour metropolitan city demogrpahic, who are pro. And as this referendum showed with the polls of "leavers" reasons for voting immigration is an election deciding issue. How on earth do you reconcile those groups?

Argue the benefits of migration?

Gove was on R4 on Tuesday I think and John Humphrey's asked him about migrant numbers if Leave won - he refused to answer. John asked if migration would fall - Gove waffled on about us being able to select the best. Truth is voting Leave won't reduce migration - the UK has a skills shortage. For example, we are 100,000 welders short so God knows how HS2 will get built without migrants. There's your argument. Leave were never put on the spot regarding numbers.

Drew_TNBD

Fretwired said:

For example, we are 100,000 welders short so God knows how HS2 will get built without migrants.

Well I can tell you, if we were actually providing proper education instead of invented curriculums just to part students with their hard earned cash, we wouldn't be in that mess.

Basically this all goes back to the 1950's and the first waves of immigration. Our governments of the time should've invested in it's existing population instead of importing a workforce. They moved our heritage off-shore, except they brought the off-shore to us instead.

Fretwired

Drew_fx said:

Fretwired said:

For example, we are 100,000 welders short so God knows how HS2 will get built without migrants.

Well I can tell you, if we were actually providing proper education instead of invented curriculums just to part students with their hard earned cash, we wouldn't be in that mess.

It's complicated (I won't bore you with how I know about this) - colleges do train and run courses, but welding is expensive and requires a lot of space and specialised buildings. There are then many levels and specialisms that require further training and exams. The main issue is one facing lots of industries - increased demand via large one-off projects and baby boomers retiring en masse. There will always be a need for migrants to pick up the slack.

Welding is highly paid .. there's a guy up north earns £150K per annum.

hugbot

Fretwired said:

hugbot said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

Not the time or place. When Labour is sat here figuring out how it can get back in with the Northern Labour areas who voted Leave, having two old chick Remainers coming out with this is risible and demonstrating that Labour are still hopeless within themselves. 

Labour is in a fucked checkmate position regardless. On one hand you've got the "labour heartland", who are anti-immigration. On the other the labour metropolitan city demogrpahic, who are pro. And as this referendum showed with the polls of "leavers" reasons for voting immigration is an election deciding issue. How on earth do you reconcile those groups?

Gove was on R4 on Tuesday I think and John Humphrey's asked him about migrant numbers if Leave won - he refused to answer. John asked if migration would fall - Gove waffled on about us being able to select the best. Truth is voting Leave won't reduce migration - the UK has a skills shortage. For example, we are 100,000 welders short so God knows how HS2 will get built without migrants. There's your argument. Leave were never put on the spot regarding numbers.

Arguing the benefits of migration is a total non starter, thats how most of this debate was framed

You're correct that the challenging leave  o whether they could actually deliver on reduced migration as they claim is what remain SHOULD have done. I saw a tv debate where a young, 20 somethingish art student argued that immigration was good because of "multiculturalism and diversity and stuff" only to get smacked down by a manual labourer who rebutted that he didn't give a shit about that stuff, he cared about his job.

That line of argument was never going to resonate, the manual labourer guy was black too which points to another uncomfortable truth - a lot of anti-immigration rhetoric isn't just from racists, its from settled immigrants who see the next wave as a threat to the positions they just got into. Hence why bermingham swang towards leave.

Ro_S

Fretwired said:

Gove was on R4 on Tuesday I think and John Humphrey's asked him about migrant numbers if Leave won - he refused to answer. John asked if migration would fall - Gove waffled on about us being able to select the best. Truth is voting Leave won't reduce migration - the UK has a skills shortage. For example, we are 100,000 welders short so God knows how HS2 will get built without migrants. There's your argument. Leave were never put on the spot regarding numbers. 

The Leave campaign were never obliged to give numbers of migration.   It is for prospective governments to tell the electorate about their migration number targets.  Leave is/was not a political party or seeking office or power.

 

Myranda

Fretwired said:

Myranda said:

thomasross20 said:

No. There'll be a system like in Oz to bring in qualified/skilled people.

There weren't enough staff to process Visa applications to the UK in a timely manner before... now that 300,000+ applications will get made in one go they will be overwhelmed.

It won't be 300,000 ... nearer 600,000. The 300,000 figure is net migration.

BBC says there are 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

Seems that the Leave voters would riot if 3 million EU nationals were allowed to stay - otherwise what was the point of voting against EU migration

The UK Immigration office can't deal with that number of applications.

One poorly written immigration policy could cause untold damage (there aren't 3 million unemployed britains looking for work) and a horrendous amount of forms to fill in and review.

Modulus_Amps said:

@Fretwired said:

@Sporky said:

Modulus_Amps said:

We have one of the highest minimum wages in the world, you get paid more here for picking berries than junior engineers in other countries.....

Is that not a reflection of our cost of living being significantly higher than in such countries? Is minimum wage more in terms of buying power than those engineers' wages?

Yes. Getting £9 an hour won't help you if you want to buy a house in London.

Only partially based on cost of living, but it means your cars are cheaper, your TV's are cheaper, your guitars are cheaper, anything you buy from an international market.

 IMO it is the driving force for all the EU migration to the UK from poor EU countries. a cleaner in Poland has to work 400 hours (2.5eu/h) to pay for a Gibson SG 2015, a cleaner in the UK has to work for 105 hours (9.5eu/hour) to do the same. if the EU had a decent flat rate minimum wage we would not have seen the levels of migration that we did and the out campaign would not have had the amount of support it did.

look at the minimum wages per country and compare that to where most people have migrated from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_minimum_wage

The cost of living in Cape Town is sky high compared to he wages there for most folk,I remember being in Cape Town with my wife a few years ago , we bought her a new jacket there for about £40, the person behind the counter basically said that is how much she gets paid in a week. Would these People come to the UK, yes they would

Try living on the minimum wage though ... like seriously. My mother is on the minimum wage and can't afford to file for bankruptcy. We might have a high(ish) minimum wage, but it's not enough to buy a Gibson on - hell she had to put up with an abscess the size of a tennis ball because the cost of a trip to the dentist was too much, where do you think she was going to get the money for an SG from?

Perhaps, it might be worth looking at the minimum wage AND the cost of living... just a thought. 

Drew_fx said:

Myranda said:

to do so would go against the apparent will of the people

And that is where your projection and opinion begins Myranda. The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Did the people NOT just vote to leave the EU?

Fretwired

Myranda said:

Fretwired said:

Myranda said:

thomasross20 said:

No. There'll be a system like in Oz to bring in qualified/skilled people.

There weren't enough staff to process Visa applications to the UK in a timely manner before... now that 300,000+ applications will get made in one go they will be overwhelmed.

It won't be 300,000 ... nearer 600,000. The 300,000 figure is net migration.

BBC says there are 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

Seems that the Leave voters would riot if 3 million EU nationals were allowed to stay - otherwise what was the point of voting against EU migration

The UK Immigration office can't deal with that number of applications.

One poorly written immigration policy could cause untold damage (there aren't 3 million unemployed britains looking for work) and a horrendous amount of forms to fill in and review.

The 3 million EU nationals in the UK will be able to remain - people are really getting worked up over this for no reason. One of my largest clients would go bust if the immigrants that make up his workforce are sent home - many are skilled engineers.

My comment about refers to annual immigration. There are about 500,000 new migrants per annum (200,000 people leave hence the netting down to 300,000).

I can't see immigration falling any time soon - I think we should have control and we should be able to recruit from around the world but unless the economy tanks the level of immigration will remain the same.

I also think the price for free trade will be free movement.

Myranda

hugbot said:

Fretwired said:

hugbot said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777

Not the time or place. When Labour is sat here figuring out how it can get back in with the Northern Labour areas who voted Leave, having two old chick Remainers coming out with this is risible and demonstrating that Labour are still hopeless within themselves. 

Labour is in a fucked checkmate position regardless. On one hand you've got the "labour heartland", who are anti-immigration. On the other the labour metropolitan city demogrpahic, who are pro. And as this referendum showed with the polls of "leavers" reasons for voting immigration is an election deciding issue. How on earth do you reconcile those groups?

Gove was on R4 on Tuesday I think and John Humphrey's asked him about migrant numbers if Leave won - he refused to answer. John asked if migration would fall - Gove waffled on about us being able to select the best. Truth is voting Leave won't reduce migration - the UK has a skills shortage. For example, we are 100,000 welders short so God knows how HS2 will get built without migrants. There's your argument. Leave were never put on the spot regarding numbers.

Arguing the benefits of migration is a total non starter, thats how most of this debate was framed

You're correct that the challenging leave  o whether they could actually deliver on reduced migration as they claim is what remain SHOULD have done. I saw a tv debate where a young, 20 somethingish art student argued that immigration was good because of "multiculturalism and diversity and stuff" only to get smacked down by a manual labourer who rebutted that he didn't give a shit about that stuff, he cared about his job.

That line of argument was never going to resonate, the manual labourer guy was black too which points to another uncomfortable truth - a lot of anti-immigration rhetoric isn't just from racists, its from settled immigrants who see the next wave as a threat to the positions they just got into. Hence why bermingham swang towards leave.

Did you just imply that a man who is black can't be racist?

Ro_S

Myranda said:

BBC says there are 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

Seems that the Leave voters would riot if 3 million EU nationals were allowed to stay - otherwise what was the point of voting against EU migration

No, they don't expect existing immigrants to be repatriated.

They voted Leave cos they realise England's immigration figures have got far too high and they want immigration to be reduced in the future.

    

Evilmags

Again Switzerland has no minimum wage, plenty of immigrants and the highest salary levels in Europe.

Evilmags

Drew_fx said:

So what does this all mean for @Emp_Fab and his £800 of Euros ???

That he should have listened to me and bought Swiss Francs...

Myranda

Ro_S said:

Myranda said:

BBC says there are 3 million EU nationals in the UK.

Seems that the Leave voters would riot if 3 million EU nationals were allowed to stay - otherwise what was the point of voting against EU migration

No, they don't expect existing immigrants to be repatriated.

They voted Leave cos they realise England's immigration figures have got far too high and they want immigration to be reduced in the future.

    

Too high according to what objective accounting of such things?

Drew_TNBD

Myranda;1124201" said:

Did the people NOT just vote to leave the EU?

We didn't all get together and go "we all hate foreigners don't we? Down with this sort of thing!"

There are MANY different reasons that people voted leave. Stop fucking asserting that it was just because of immigration. That is DUMB!